BB73 said:

Buckeyes lost to an undefeated team just below them, they have to drop at least to #2.

Bama was at #9 and lost to #3, so it‘s a different scenario.

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1. I wasn't being entirely serious.

2. Your explanation may explain why Ohio State dropped, but it doesn't explain why Alabama didn't.

BuckeyeNation27 said:

Hand being offsides didn't matter on that punt for some reason.....

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Noticed that too!

Hand being offsides didn't matter on that punt for some reason.....

I frankly don’t remember the details of the MOU but I have near zero faith the worm Petitti (who asked the NCAA to let scUM off easy to placate the networks) is looking out for the actual game or the players or the fans when he signs off on this sort of stuff. Color me resigned to the demise of our once great passion

Mike80 said:

Early on Indiana was jumping the early passing game. Watch Sayin double pump and pull the ball down. This also directly led to 3-4 of the sacks too. As it was, the misdirection element was missing. This was one thing that needed to be adjusted in the 1st half but wasn't until the 2nd half.

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100% this.

That's why I keep saying it was more on the coaches and IOL than Sayin. They were out game planned and then adjusted too slow.

scarletngray said:

Part of the problem was that a number of plays took too long to develop. A shorter and faster passing game could have avoided some of the pressure Sayin was under. We also didn't trust the running game enough.

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Early on Indiana was jumping the early passing game. Watch Sayin double pump and pull the ball down. This also directly led to 3-4 of the sacks too. As it was, the misdirection element was missing. This was one thing that needed to be adjusted in the 1st half but wasn't until the 2nd half.

Hahaha suck it Chicago!

woofermazing said:

With opt.outs, I kind of expect this to become common.

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I can see

Thump said:

I can.

They beat that team at that team’s stadium earlier this season.

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the problem is the committee used the CCG loss to eliminate BYU but not Bama.
SECESPN flexed and the committee blinked

Had either Michigan beaten OSU or USC beaten Oregon…..or both…..we could have had a 4th B1G team in and at the expense of Bama.

OHSportsFan said:

Good stats and it gives me some comfort.

That said, these 3 teams will at least have a much smaller individual talent gap compared to IU vs OSU (I assume).

IU is very well coached, experienced and aggressive on defense. They play similar “team defense” as OSU in a way.

But Georgia/Miami/TAMU could still have individual matchup edges where - if coached well - could be a problem in a one game playoff. Especially if they found what IU did and OSU doesn’t have an answer.

I’ll be honest I don’t know enough about their rosters to say. And a lot can still change in 3 weeks - hopefully with OSU coaches correcting course.

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The one thing stats can't perfectly call out is true talent. It just can't tell if you have an NFL 1st rounder at NG who's been dinged up and not playing at his best but after a months rest goes nuclear on you.

But that's why it's all probabilities and not guarantees (that kind of thing wouldn't wildly swing win % anyway)

No doubt the talent gap closes with these teams but on the other hand-they have had all year to put up numbers against the better competition so to a pretty healthy degree, you are what your data says you are (good data, scrubbed for garbage time, adjusted for opponents etc) at this point in the year.

Upsets happen from turnovers, short fields, fluky explosive plays and empty RZ trips from the favorite almost exclusively. If you know what to look for in style types you can see the red/yellow/green signals that one unit may be a real problem for the other.

The pre game "script" for IU/OSU wasn't wrong. IU got the two turnovers they needed in the second half to go with the pressure on Sayin and that was what they needed. Odds were against them but as they say, shit happens.

Once again, Congrats to @tugger5000 on winning this year’s contest. There will be a separate contest for the bowl games.

Those scoring points this week:

muffler dragon…………….....3.5……duke/virginia
CMic……………………………3.5
brodybuck21………………….3.5
Zurp…………………………….3.5
iambrutus………………..……3.5

Other upsets this week which nobody picked:

indiana/tosu…………...……..5.5
TULANE/n texas……………..2.5
/

Final standings:

tugger5000…….…….….....74.… CONGRATS!!
muffler dragon…………….58
Akron-Buck………………..54.5
MD Buckeye……………….53
808 Buck……………………52.5
Honor&Glory………………48.5
BB73………………………..48.5
thackattack………………..42.5
osugrad21………………….42.5
Illini Dylan..…………….….41.5
AuTx Buckeye…………….41
tOSURox…………………..40.5
BigWoof31…………………39.5
brodybuck21………………39.5
Steve19…………………….39
Zurp…………………………37
WoodyWorshiper.....…......36.5
Captain Buckeye…………36.5
BuckeyeNation27……...…36….only 6.5 points behind osugrad21
Bestbuck36………………..35
gracelhink………………….34.5
heisman……………………32.5
buckeyemania11…………30.5
iambrutus………………….30
Fungo Squiggly………......29.5
gregorylee…………..…….28.5
wolves2002………………..28
Bucklion……………….…..24.5
HineyBuck…………….…..24
Wadcutter…………………23.5
dozenmonkeyz…….……..23
CMic………………………..23
Mike80……………….…….22.5
Bborg140………………….21
Wingate1217……………..20.5
ScriptOhio……………...…19
Kevin……………………….17.5
TDunk……………….….….16.5
gmen6981………………….15.5
buckeyboy.........................11.5
cincibuck………...……........8.5
LovelandBuckeye………….0……Goose egg!
/

If you believe a mistake has been made, please @ me in this thread or send me a PM.

OregonBuckeye said:

Sooners are ass. They're better than Bama too

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OK has a good defense. They can turn it into a rock fight.

They'd pick Knowles up in a heartbeat. Qualification #1 to work there: are you willing to cheat?
#2: Did you used to work for Ohio State?

BuckeyesGunn said:

Yeah, IU is a very good team right now. Also have to say they played all out against us, and not sure they can maintain that energy. Not sure what to think about them up against Bama or Sooners though.

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Sooners are ass. They're better than Bama too

I'll just put this in here instead of offense and defense threads. This is a mix of FEI data (tells us what teams have done) and CFB EPA data (tells us how teams do it). There is more to it but that's the high level.

OSU Bracket Matrix

Threat to OSU on each side of the ball

Indiana​

• Only team whose defensive architecture materially distorts OSU's offensive rhythm as we just saw.
• Offense is not elite; threat comes 75% from defense (13 points)

Georgia​

• Balanced, top-10 in everything, but nothing that specifically attacks OSU’s structural weaknesses.
• Most “complete” opponent on this side.

Miami​

• Defense good enough to slow OSU some, but OSU defense >Miami’s offense.
• Hard for Miami to get to 20 points in this game.

Texas A&M​

• QB-run based run game gets shut down by OSU front.
• Defensive drive efficiency is not top-tier when opponent-adjusted.
• Can’t threaten OSU unless OSU self-inflicts.

Ole Miss​

• Cannot defend OSU’s WR room or methodical structure.
• Offense gets erased by OSU D.

Tulane​

Ha

We will be ~7 point favorite over TAMU/Miami
Probably ~-3 over UGA

My single biggest concern is playing in Glendale. Fuck that place.

Jaxbuck said:

Some perspective after last night using a mix of BCFtoys (what you have done on the field) CFB graphs data (how you have done it):

SUMMARY TABLE — DEFENSIVE QUALITY (OSU SIDE ONLY)​

Team	DFEI Rank	DSR Rank	DAY Rank	Overall Danger to OSU
Indiana	#3	#3	#5	Very High
Miami	#7	#10	#7	Moderate
Georgia	#13	#12	#17	Moderate–Low
Texas A&M	#14	#15	#17	Low
Ole Miss	#22	#15–20	#15	Low
Tulane	#30+	#25+	#35+	Negligible

IU is far and away the best defense we will face before a possible rematch with it.

None of:
-Georgia
-Miami
-A&M
-Ole Miss
are even close.

Indiana:
best early-down efficiency
top-tier drive denial
elite finishing drives allowed
elite available-yards suppression
elite FEI stability
best red-zone constraints
best suited for OSU’s style (this is the killer)

Georgia/Miami/A&M simply cannot replicate the same "structural discomfort" IU can create.

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Didn’t realize it was that big of a gulf. Just glad they got film and have something to work from like Oregon last season.

If Sayin isn’t frazzled from the start and the OL plays even slightly better, they can score 20+.

CMic said:

I’m surprised their DC hasn’t left for the NFL. The NFL loves to recycle guys like him.

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They are praying he does so they can hire one of harbaugh tree's hand me downs. They are obsessed with raven's systemmm

LordJeffBuck said:

Please explain this to me:

#1 Ohio State loses its CCG by 3 points and drops in the CFP standings....

But #9 Alabama loses its CCG by 21 points and doesn't drop in the CFP standings.

How is this fair?

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Buckeyes lost to an undefeated team just below them, they have to drop at least to #2.

Bama was at #9 and lost to #3, so it‘s a different scenario.

Good, Lord! What a ridiculous situation. With so much crap on the internet I am withholding judgement. But, man...It doesn't look good.

CMic said:

I really liked Mendoza - much better than the yahoo they had last year. They’re going to be a tough out.

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Yep. Something said to me after mendoza got rocked by Curry, when I saw him come back out, that they were going to pull this off. I felt that way all week, just a gut feeling. That to me solidified it.

CMic said:

I really liked Mendoza - much better than the yahoo they had last year. They’re going to be a tough out.

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The games on their side of the bracket should be some tough ass affairs.

BuckeyesGunn said:

Yeah, IU is a very good team right now. Also have to say they played all out against us, and not sure they can maintain that energy. Not sure what to think about them up against Bama or Sooners though.

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I really liked Mendoza - much better than the yahoo they had last year. They’re going to be a tough out.

muffler dragon said:

If they don't play in a bowl game, then they don't get the extra practices, right?

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Thump said:

Correct.

Myopic as usual.

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