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College Football Playoffs Discussion (12/16/24 Team Format)

Tomateaux Quinoa Gumbeaux

FCS playoff TV viewerships shows potential appetite exists for a Group of Six playoff.
A 24-team playoff is coming in college football, and it’s never been clearer that one playoff isn’t enough.

College football needs another playoff.

I’m serious.

Look, I loathe a 24-team playoff as much as the next guy, but it’s coming next season, whether we like it or not. The super-sized playoff will shove bowl games into a blender of uncertainty, and that unlocks an opportunity to rethink the postseason and consider some blue-sky possibilities.

Like … a Group of Six playoff.

Hayes: You’ll hate a 24-team College Football Playoff. You’ll watch anyway
This isn’t just a sports columnist thinking out loud.

Inside the G6 ranks, they’re at least informally discussing the subject.

Memphis athletic director Ed Scott recently spoke with USA TODAY Sports about a broad range of college athletics topics. Among them: a potential G6 playoff.

To sum up Scott’s stance, he wouldn’t want to surrender Memphis’ chance to compete in the 24-team CFP. But, that point aside, he’s got some interest in a G6 playoff. He’s not alone.

“I’ve talked to some other ADs about it," Scott told USA TODAY Sports. "The folks I’ve talked to, they don’t want to eliminate the opportunity of competing in a 24-team playoff. That’s first and foremost, right? There could be an option of getting more than one Group of Six team (into a 24-team playoff).”

But, what if this wasn't a binary choice? What if the G6 didn’t have to choose between inclusion in the CFP or a G6 playoff? Why couldn't it retain its one automatic bid to the CFP, while also creating a G6 playoff as a postseason destination for its top teams that don't qualify for the CFP?

Think of it almost like college basketball. The NCAA Tournament reserves some automatic bids for mid-majors, while additional mid-majors that don't make March Madness head into the NIT.

A similar system might work for football. The G6 could retain an automatic bid into the CFP, and after the CFP field is set, then an eight-team G6 playoff could assign its bids, almost like bowl games do now.

Murky future for bowl games creates runway for Group of Six playoff
An eight-team G6 playoff could set up parameters so that the best available team from each of the six conferences would earn a bid, plus two additional at-large spots for G6 teams.

Think of it less as a rival playoff and more as a companion to the CFP.

Wouldn’t a spot in the G6 playoff trump a bid to a dying bowl game?

“Bowl games are getting harder to get buy-in from your players, especially after the holidays,” Scott, the Memphis AD, acknowledged.

“I think if you’re playing for a championship at that level, I think it might mean more, eventually, but I don’t know enough (yet). I don’t have enough data until we get to a 24-team playoff to feel strongly one way or the other.”


Last year’s FCS championship game between Montana State and Illinois State averaged 2.3 million viewers on ESPN. One of the FCS semifinal games, between rivals Montana and Montana State, averaged 2.8 million viewers on ABC, five days before Christmas. Multiple FCS quarterfinal games hit at least 1.5 million viewers.

For context, a Louisville-Indiana basketball game last December attracted a Saturday CBS audience of 1.4 million viewers.

The vast majority of December college basketball games attract fewer than a million viewers.

Americans like football, they like betting on football, and they’re already trained to watch postseason college football in December.

What else are you going to watch in December when you’re taking off work and stuffing your face with Christmas cookies? If your December viewing options are a G6 playoff game or a Hallmark movie in which you can predict the ending — after a series of twists, they end up married and happy in a remote, snowy town — I can predict which one you’ll pick. It’s the one you’ve placed a $50 FanDuel wager on and not the Lacey Chabert flick.

If you watched North Texas vs. San Diego State in a bowl game last December (it averaged 1.4 million viewers), you’d watch that same matchup in the G6 playoff — only this time, the stakes would be elevated.

Sure, legitimate questions arise about the functionality of a G6 playoff.
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College Football Playoffs Discussion (12/16/24 Team Format)

Tomateaux Quinoa Gumbeaux
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Sources tell me a G6 playoff would be worth approximately $200 million annually. That’s about $3 million payout per school annually. Given that the average g6 budget is about $21 million. A 14% annual bump would be attractive. I wrote around 2019 that a G6 playoff would be worth $166 million. So a 21% increase in that projection is significant. Nothing imminent but interesting numbers especially with @Brett_McMurphy reporting 2/3 of g6 coaches favor a playoff.
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U.S. Men's National Soccer (Official Thread)

ScriptOhio
www.yahoo.com

Manchester United reportedly closing in on deal with Mauricio Pochettino once team moves on from Michael Carrick

Mauricio Pochettino is expected to join Manchester United once Michael Carrick is out.
www.yahoo.com www.yahoo.com

Manchester United reportedly closing in on deal with Mauricio Pochettino once team moves on from Michael Carrick​

All indications point to USMNT coach Mauricio Pochettino joining Manchester United, but there's one significant roadblock preventing the move: Michael Carrick is still employed by the side.

That's expected to change Wednesday, as Manchester United brass will reportedly meet to discuss Carrick's fate. Once that meeting takes place — and Carrick is relieved of his duties — it's expected Pochettino will be hired by the team, per multiple reports.

The move comes just months after Pochettino signed a new contract to continue coaching the USMNT through the 2030 World Cup. It will reportedly cost Manchester United $10 million to get Pochettino released from that contract.
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www.yahoo.com

Just in: Pochettino says yes to Man Utd as USMNT’s latest move almost confirm his departure

Mauricio Pochettino is seemingly on the cusp of joining Manchester United, as the USMNT’s latest move hints at an imminent exit.The Red Devils are preparing to sack Michael Carrick after a catastrop...
www.yahoo.com www.yahoo.com

Just in: Pochettino says yes to Man Utd as USMNT’s latest move almost confirm his departure​

According to Argentine journalist Gaston Edul, Pochettino has already agreed to become Man Utd's new head coach. It's now up to the EPL giants to make a formal offer to the American national team.

Moreover, Sky Sports News has reported that the USMNT has cancelled media access scheduled for Wednesday, suggesting that the 54-year-old's departure is now imminent.
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NFL Police Blotter (quit breakin the law asshole!)

Tomateaux Quinoa Gumbeaux
Jaxbuck said:
Not the first group I'd target for a con game
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Highly athletic millionaires, with a significant portion of them growing up in rough neighborhoods and likely have deep ties with street characters?

I think PennState1987 wouldn’t even need to make a thread asking if that was a good idea or not.
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College Football Playoffs Discussion (12/16/24 Team Format)

Jaxbuck
Tomateaux Quinoa Gumbeaux said:
With the direction the sport in going in, I would not be surprised if a lower seeded team with no real shot for the season had their stars sit out of a playoff game.
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The first year they had an SEC CG, (1993 or so maybe?) the old ball coach held out guys against FSU so he'd be ready for the SEC CG. Talked about it openly.

It goes without saying that part of the de-emphasis of the regular season will be this scenario popping up.

The really shitty part for us is that most of the rivalry games are played on that last weekend.
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College Football Playoffs Discussion (12/16/24 Team Format)

Tomateaux Quinoa Gumbeaux
Jaxbuck said:
This year with the smaller field- our season is cooked and the best player in the sport could reasonably tap out with 3 games to go.

Next year we'd still be in the playoff picture and that scenario becomes highly unlikely
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With the direction the sport in going in, I would not be surprised if a lower seeded team with no real shot for the season had their stars sit out of a playoff game.
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2027 OH DB Tristin Hughes (Kentucky Verbal)

osuvictory1
brodybuck21 said:
11W Forums

KYBuck4858 19 hours ago
Per Michigan and Kentucky reporters, OSU is not expected to be much of a factor for in-state S Tristin Hughes.
Most likely reason being is I think we're going to add a portal guy to backfill Little. And then go all-out financially for Barner in '28. Don't want to tie up a lot of capital for other guys at the position.

Jamesgandle 18 hours ago
I saw from on3 a few days ago that he’s most likely staying with Kentucky
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I think some of the issues with team talent the last couple seasons is trying to lock down the state. That works good for a Tressel circa early 2000's team, but in this day and age, there needs to be a priority on top talent available and moving resources towards them. They maybe drawing a line financially for in state projects.

This season there is a noticeable lack of NFL quality players on the team, and its showing up in the games.
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Game Thread Northwestern at tOSU, Sat. Nov. 14th, noon ET, FOX

Jaxbuck
gmen6981 said:
You are most likely correct. I was just pointing out the unlikelihood of TCUN beating Oregon, especially since the game is at Autzen and USC and UCLA can't both go undefeated the rest of the way since they play each other. The Hoosiers however can and most likely will. I expect them to beat USC and Purdue in Bloomington and I can't see Washington beating them even with the game in Seattle.
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All of that predicting by me could go flying out the window if someone finishes what OSU started and IU loses their QB completely.

They are just like the rest of us when QB1 is out.
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Name, Image, & Likeness (NIL) at tOSU

Jaxbuck
AKAK said:
As much as Le Chuck and you guys are right, there's still some shit that's the same, and a few other things that actually help instead of hurt.

Imagine for me, for a moment, even with the benefit of hindsight, that you're trying to recruit kids for 2025 (which means kids who would be second year players this year) and you handed them this depth chart:


Do they want NIL money? Sure. Do they want to play and get seen and go to the NFL? Yes, they still want that stuff too.

Do a bunch of them learn in about 15 months that they're not going to be first round draft picks once they see what those guys can do? Yep. So, to me it's gone from Woody's got 150 schollys where he'll pay a kids way to never play for Michigan or anyone else to, kids can move around freely (and we can dump them pretty freely too, so that's the other side)

But the key feature on that chart isn't so much that you've got a really formidable 2 deep so a newer guy might have a while to wait to start, so why not get paid and be closer to starting somewhere else.... its harder to manage because you've got a guy like JTT on there who in previous years might have gone to the NFL but its more lucrative for him to stay (we can argue that point but, there's reason to believe he had that decision to make), I'm guessing Kenyatta is about the same, etc.

In addition our OL coach sucks, wait, no that's not my point.

So, you get into this thing where you gotta manage 90 or 95 guys "in play" over a cycle and it becomes this really complex game of do you do the pre NIL Kentucky (pick you basketball program of choice, and I know things are changing there too) where you recruit all one and done guys who are all all world but realize you're gonna get some misses or the Villanova/Gonzaga model where took a longer view to your roster.

Now... its obviously both, but for kids who are realistic about how they need to develop and what their position value is, there's some stickiness if you get them.

Season Incoming Freshmen (247 Rank) Incoming Transfers Total New Scholarship Additions Portal Exits Total Scholarship Losses (Draft, Grad, Portal) Returning Production (FBS Rank)
2024 22 (No. 5) 8 30 25 ~33 65% (No. 56)
2025 26 (No. 4) 11 37 16–21 47 46% (No. 101)
2026 29 (No. 3) 17 46 (58 w/ walk-ons) 31–32 47 60% (No. 31)
(the returning production I think is snap count so, you know, OL heavy, what was I saying? Nevermind that, also AI summaries may make mistakes)

So the two things the stick out to me is if you're having twice as many transfers in, and 50% more total new scholarship players, you have a very "new" team. Obviously you all know this but I mean, its really new.

Breaking out the departures:

Offseason / Season Early NFL Draft Entries Graduated / Exhausted Eligibility Transfer Portal Exits Total Scholarship Losses
2024 4 4 25 33
2025 7 (14 total drafted*) 19 21 47
2026 5 (11 total drafted*) 11 31 47
(not to mention those 5 early departures in 26 were probably more critical -- and some would have played sooner if they hadn't been behind players who stayed)

The larger story is that I think our particular landscape this year is that it was 2 off seasons that led to this, really 3, not one, and I would say we could have done better with the 11 incoming than we did for 25, but when you have to get 17, you were in bad shape already. The thing here I don't accept is that teams with brands and money don't still have a distinct advantage, they obviously do, its not actually a redraft every year like some folks are making it out to be, and you still have to get the best out of the dudes you have and you need to retain your talent.
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In terms of "re-draft" NIL should take care of some of the heavy lifting here. There are rules, contractual rules and they can/will be enforced meaning not every guy on the roster has to be renegotiated every day of every year.

Future casting, I see the same correction mechanism that MLB found all those years ago- the "owners" will realize they are spending a lot of money they could be keeping if they weren't in constant bidding wars with each other for talent (see the Saving College Sports Act).

The we'll get salary caps, drafts and the like.
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