I’m mostly there. But what got Thad fired was 2 years in a row out of the tourney and the talent level looking like they would miss the next year as well. So the bare minimum is 50% of the time in the NCAA….every other year. At least half of those tourney visits should go to S16. I really don’t think those are too much for Ohio State. 50% of the time in NCAA……25% of the time in the S16. 1 FF every 8 to 10 years.
Here's the thing though - that's NEVER been Ohio State historically, until Thad Matta that is. Thad Matta looks evermore like a complete unicorn in this program's history and since we're past 20 years since he was hired, and nearly 10 years since he was let go, the landscape of college basketball has changed entirely but Ohio State is still playing it like it's 2005.
To go full sports dork on you, I assigned a numerical value to every tournament appearance (25 out of 48 seasons if you were wondering and if you count O'Brien's 4 tournament years) from 1978-79 onward. This year was picked as it was the year of the Magic/Bird rivalry and the beginning of the modern era of College Basketball. The tournament expanded in 1985.
Anyway - of those 25 appearances, Matta REALLY stands out as the unicorn I keep saying he was with 9 of the 25 total appearances...I assigned each tournament result a number, from 7 (which is playing in the national final) to 1, which would be playing in but losing a play-in game, which hasn't happened yet. Here are the results:
Eldon Miller - 13
Gary Williams - 3
Randy Ayers - 12
Jim O'Brien - 14
Thad Matta - 40
Chris Holtmann - 11
It was an absolute stroke of luck (or genius) to hire Matta with the sanctions and whatnot that were ongoing at the time. As it is, he's the ONLY coach to elevate this program past its historical mean and he basically got run out of town. Without the Matta era, this program is moribund.
It's not that it can't happen - it's been proven it CAN. Should is another matter entirely. "Should" is earned, not a given. As far as that goes, there isn't a quick fix here - and anyone pretending that a new coach is going to magically fix everything is delusional.
It's going to take time, much increased NIL, a better or at least updated game atmosphere and a bigger national recruiting effort (international as well). All of it is going to take a much more aggressive focus from the AD to get it done.
Let us also remember that at Ohio State, if they are making money, the dog won't bark too loudly. That's just reality. Football is making money for the ENTIRE AD.
FWIW I don't think Diebler gets fired unless they somehow lose the rest of their games this year. I think they give him the 2nd full year (this is the 2nd full year) before putting on the pressure to win now in year 3. That said, if they DO pull the trigger, they cannot miss on the next hire and they absolutely must have a contingency plan (i.e. NOT what Ped State did when they fired Franklin)....and if they DO miss and that coach gets canned in 2 or 3 seasons, that rep of being a coaching graveyard at a football-focused school becomes harder to beat.