Ohio State v. Oregon: 2024 game preview and prediction
Brett Ludwiczak via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Photo by Tom Hauck/Getty Images
The Buckeyes and Ducks battle in Eugene on Saturday night in one of the most anticipated games of the season.
While the annual showdown with Michigan is the most anticipated game on
Ohio State’s 2024 regular season schedule, the toughest game is Saturday night’s clash with Oregon. The Ducks are now ranked third in the country, jumping up to the spot after they were ranked sixth last week, setting up the first-ever game between top-five teams at Autzen Stadium.
History against Oregon
Ohio State will be looking for some revenge, since the last time the schools met Oregon left Ohio Stadium with a 35-28 win in 2021. The victory was the first win in the series for the Ducks after the Buckeyes had won the first nine meetings in the series.
Prior to the contest three years ago, Ohio State had beaten Oregon in the 2010
Rose Bowl and the first-ever College Football Playoff National Championship Game at the end of the 2014 season. The Buckeyes will be making their second-ever trip to Eugene. Back in 1967, Ohio State played in the second game in Autzen Stadium, beating the Ducks 30-0 after the venue opened at the beginning of the season.
In their most recent game, the Buckeyes were able to stay perfect so far this season, beating Iowa 35-7 last week. The start for Ohio State was a bit sluggish, taking just a 7-0 lead into halftime. The Buckeyes came out of the locker room focused for the second half, building a lead Iowa wasn’t equipped to put a dent in.
Tough nuts to crack on offense
The stars of the win over the Hawkeyes were Emeka Egbuka, Jeremiah Smith, and Will Howard, who passed for four touchdowns in the game, and adding another score on the ground. The recipient of three of those touchdown passes was Egbuka, who now has 19 career touchdown catches, tying him with Terry McLaurin, Dane Sanzenbacher, and Joey Galloway for 10th in school history.
After tying his career-high with nine receptions last week Egbuka has 154 catches, two away from passing Marvin Harrison Jr. for sixth all-time at Ohio State. The senior is also knocking on the door of 2,300 career receiving yards, which will also place him six in school history, passing Santonio Holmes. For his performance against the Hawkeyes, Egbuka was named Big Ten co-Offensive Player of the Week.
The most memorable touchdown of the win over Iowa goes to Jeremiah Smith, who had his second one-handed touchdown catch in as many weeks. Now the true freshman has caught at least one touchdown in each of his first five collegiate games, a feat no other Buckeye freshman wide receiver has accomplished. Smith finished with four catches for 89 yards against the Hawkeyes.
Photo by Jason Mowry/Getty Images
Will Howard continues to look like a great fit in Chip Kelly’s offense, missing on just four of his 25 passes last week. The only real blemish for the
Kansas State transfer was the interception he threw. Howard is running a Buckeye offense that has not only scored 230 points, which is the seventh-highest total through five games in school history, but also is perfect in the red zone this season, scoring points on all 21 trips inside the 20.
Along with Chip Kelly returning to where he used to coach, Ohio State running backs coach Carlos Locklyn will also be returning to Eugene, where he held the same position on Dan Lanning’s staff the previous two seasons. Locklyn has an embarrassment of riches in Columbus with TreVeyon Henderson and
Ole Miss transfer Quinshon Judkins.
The dynamic duo combined for 139 of the 203 yards the Buckeyes gained on the ground against the Iowa run defense, which hadn’t allowed over 100 yards rushing to their first four opponents of the season. Ohio State has already rushed for over 200 yards in three games this season after only eclipsing the number twice in 2023.
A big reason for the success on the ground can be attributed to the offensive line. Following a disappointing first game of the season with guard Donovan Jackson sidelined, the group had gotten better with each game. Jackson was able to return for the Marshall game and has been the leader of a group that has allowed just four sacks so far this year.
Ohio State’s defense has made life miserable for opponents in 2024
Not only do the Buckeyes have one of the most explosive offenses in the country, they also have one of the most dominant defenses. Through five games, the Silver Bullets have allowed just 34 points, good for the fourth-lowest total through that span to start the season in school history.
With the 6.8 points per game they are allowing, Ohio State is tops in the country, along with having the best total defense in the country, as they are allowing 202.4 yards per game. What had been most impressive about the Buckeye defense is how they have been even stronger after halftime this year, allowing just 10 points in the second half. Even though Iowa scored a touchdown in the fourth quarter last week, Ohio State had the game well in hand.
Last week the pressure by the defensive line was able to not only rattle Cade McNamara, they were also able to keep Kaleb Johnson in check for most of the game. Johnson came into the contest having rushed for at least 119 yards in each of Iowa’s first four games of the season. The Buckeyes held Johnson to under 100 yards on the ground, with nearly a third of those yards coming on a 28-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter when Iowa was trailing 35-0.
Jack Sawyer and the rest of the defensive line made life miserable for McNamara last Saturday. Sawyer had a sack and a half in the game, combining with fellow defensive end J.T. Tuimoloau on one takedown of the Hawkeye quarterback. Defensive tackle Ty Hamilton also got up close and personal with McNamara, sacking the former Michigan quarterback. Tuimoloau leads the team with three sacks, with Sawyer sitting just a half sack behind his line mate.
A lot of credit also has to go to the linebackers recently. It feels like Sonny Styles has been involved every tackle of late. Styles led the team with seven stops against Iowa, two of which were stops behind the line of scrimmage. The converted safety also leads the team on the season with 30 tackles.
Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Along with Styles, Cody Simon has been trending upward after missing the season opener due to injury. The senior had six tackles and a fumble recover against Iowa. Arabella Reese has been earning himself more playing time since he has impressed each time he has taken the field this season. Reese and C.J. Hicks give Jim Knowles some needed depth at linebacker behind Styles and Simon.
For as good as the defensive line and linebackers have been, the Ohio State secondary has been the star of the defense. Following a slow start to his Buckeye career, safety Caleb Downs is picking up steam, recording nine tackles, three of which were TFLs, over the last two games.
Last week cornerback Davison Igbinosun snatched his first career interception, while Lathan Ransom continues to be a physical threat at safety. Denzel Burke and Jordan Hancock continue to play at a high level in the defensive backfield. The matchup of the group against Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel is going to be fascinating to watch on Saturday night.
Dan Lanning has settled in at Autzen
Oregon has been improving with each game after a couple of tight contests to start the season. The Ducks struggled to pull away from Idaho in the season opener, and barely squeaked past Boise State the following week. In the second half against
Oregon State, Dan Lanning’s team really started to play to their potential, outscoring the Beavers 27-0 in the 49-14 win. Over the last two games, Oregon hasn’t had to break much of a sweat, beating UCLA and
Michigan State by 21 points each.
Now the Ducks will look to continue their phenomenal recent record at Autzen Stadium, going 34-1 at home since losing to Stanford in overtime in 2018. The only loss in Eugene since the was a 37-34 setback against Washington in 2022. Former Georgia assistant Dan Lanning is in his third season as head coach of the Ducks, and of the five losses he has suffered since taking over for Mario Cristobal, three have come to Washington.
The offense of the Ducks spreads their wings
Quarterback Dillon Gabriel is now at his third school, with his college football career now in its sixth season. After starting his college career at UCF, Gabriel spent two years at Oklahoma before entering the transfer portal following the season and deciding to spend his final collegiate season at Oregon.
When his career is finished, Gabriel will go down as one of the top statistical quarterbacks in NCAA history. Gabriel is currently fourth all-time with 16,314 yards passing, third with 136 passing touchdowns, and second with 166 total touchdowns and 17,445 total yards.
As if those stats weren’t impressive, Gabriel is completing 77.8 percent of his passes, making him one of just two active quarterbacks with a completion percent over 75 percent. If there was one area of concern about Gabriel for Oregon fans heading into this game, last week he did throw two interceptions against Michigan State.
The Ducks were able to shake off those red zone woes since running back Jordan James was a monster against the Spartans. James ran for 166 yards and a score on 24 carries. The 166 yards rushing were the most by an Oregon running back since Travis Dye ran for 211 yards in 2021 against Washington. Through five games, James has 552 yards on the ground and five touchdowns.
Even though James has been good this year, Lanning and offensive coordinator Will Stein prefer to move the ball through the air. It is easy to see why with some of the targets Gabriel has to work with.
Tez Johnson set a school record in 2023 with 86 catches. Through five games in 2024, Johnson is already halfway to matching the mark. Last week against Michigan State, the shifty receiver had 10 grabs for 84 yards and a touchdown. The Troy transfer is also dangerous on special teams, already returning a punt for a score this year.
Photo by Tom Hauck/Getty Images
Along with Johnson at wide receiver, Oregon brought in Traeshon Holden from Alabama and Evan Stewart from
Texas A&M in the transfer portal. Holden ranks second on the team with 19 catches for 274 yards, while Stewart has caught 16 balls this year.
Tied with Stewart in reception is tight end Terrance Ferguson, who is on his way to becoming the most prolific tight end in school history. Currently Ferguson is the third tight end in school history to catch at least 100 passes. His 107 career catches are 18 shy of passing Ed Dickson for most grabs by a tight end in Oregon history.
The reason the Oregon offense has started clicking over the last three games is because they have found consistency on their offensive line. After allowing seven sacks over the first two games, the Ducks haven’t allowed a sack in the last three contests. What sparked the uptick in play for the line was Poncho Laloulu moving to center after the Boise State game. Since his arrival at Oregon, keeping their quarterbacks clean has been a cornerstone of Lanning’s teams, allowing just 17 sacks since the start of the 2022 season.
How Oregon’s defense lines up
Much like Ohio State, Oregon has one of the top defenses in the country. Defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi’s crew is in the top 10 of total defense, allowing 263.4 yards per game, and is one of six teams in the country ranked in the top 25 of both rush and pass defense. So far in 2024, the Ducks are allowing just 17 points per game. Last week Oregon shutout Michigan State through three quarters before the Spartans scored 10 points in the final 15 after the result had already been decided.
Jordan Burch has been one of the most disruptive defensive players in the country so far this season. The defensive end was named Big Ten Defensive Player of the Week after recording 2.5 sacks against Michigan State. The five sacks Burch has this season is currently tied for eighth in the country. The South Carolina transfer has also done a tremendous job at getting in passing lanes, breaking four passes through five games.
The interior of the Oregon defensive line features Derrick Harmon, who started his college career at Michigan State. Harmon has 19 tackles and three sacks this season. Along with Harmon, Lanning also brought in Jamaree Caldwell from Houston at defensive tackle.
After battling a couple great linebackers from Iowa last week, Ohio State will again see a talented set of linebackers on Saturday night. Bryce Boettcher leads the team with 32 tackles. Teitum Tuioti is coming off the Michigan State game where he had seven tackles.
Jeffrey Bassa had one of the most critical plays of the 2023 season for Oregon when his interception return for a touchdown sealed a comeback win at Texas Tech. Also a part of the group is Matayo Uiagalelei, who is the brother of quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei, and plays more of a hybrid defensive end/linebacker position.
Rounding out the defense of Oregon is a playmaking secondary. Against Boise State, Oregon had 13 pass breakups, and so far the season the defense has 31 PBUs. The Ducks dipped into the transfer portal during the offseason to solidify the group.
The key acquisition was former Oklahoma State and Washington cornerback Jabbar Muhammad, who was second in the country with 19 PBUs last year. Muhammad already has six breakups this year, tying for fifth nationally. Along with Muhammad, Oregon added safeties Kobe Savage from Kansas State and Duke’s Brandon Johnson. Lining up opposite Muhammad at cornerback is Nikko Reed.
Prediction
Saturday night’s game not only has the potential to be a classic, it could be the first of three meetings between the teams this year, as they could potentially play in the Big Ten Championship Game and College Football Playoff. Both squads come in with a ton of confidence as the Ducks and Buckeyes both have veteran transfer quarterbacks leading explosive offenses.
This game is going to be decided in the trenches and even those battles are tight. Both offensive lines have improved with each game and haven’t let their opponents get to close to their quarterbacks. The deciding factor is likely going to be the depth Ohio State has on the defensive line since they do have more linemen they can rotate in and wear on the Oregon offensive line.
In the end, Ohio State edges out the Ducks since Chip Kelly is able to put together a game plan against his former employer that is balanced and keeps Oregon’s defense on their heels. The Buckeyes establish the run early, opening this up for Howard to find Egbuka and Smith through the air. Ohio State takes one of the most memorable games of the 2024 season so far.
LGHL score prediction: Ohio State 31, Oregon 24
Continue reading...