Operation Chaos mode - BCS Title game contenders

[BUCKYLE]

Miami and FSU(The U badly)(Free Shows lost to South Florida?) get beat on the same weekend(not back). Cal gets humiliated at Oregon? Pac Ten sucks. SC won't lose a game on the remainder of their schedule. Ol Miss stunk it up. State Penn and ND your up!

You don't have to go chaos mode in your post.

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

With #4 Mississippi losing, #6 Cal getting destroyed, and #9 Miami getting exposed, our chances of moving up to at least #10 in the AP poll should be pretty good (depending on how far Mississippi drops) after our waxing of Illinois. And if Iowa holds on against #5 Penn State, it's all but assured...

 

[daddyphatsacs]

Yeah man, I think we're going to see a handful of them this weekend. I think Miami goes down to Va. Tech, Penn St. gets beat, and Cal takes a hit. I think Va. Tech at home is too much for a good Miami team. Their defense has been solid so far. As for Penn St, they are a shell of their squad from last year and have injury issues. Cal is Cal, they will lose a game they shouldn't.

You hate to toot your own horn, but in this case..........toot toot. :)


The shakeup of the college landscape continues. It's going to be a great season.

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

Penn State loses by 11 at home to unranked Iowa. No way they don't drop below us, along with Miami and Cal (and maybe Mississippi).

 

[daddyphatsacs]

Penn State loses by 11 at home to unranked Iowa. No way they don't drop below us, along with Miami and Cal (and maybe Mississippi).

Agreed. As long as we keep winning the rest will take care of itself. If we have been taught anything thus far, it's that parity has struck the college football world. We looked damn solid today, especially on defense. Ohio State has a team that is championship caliber, especially on defense. Talk about a best case scenario for us.

 

[WaitingforKickoff]

A quick look at how we can get back into the NC picture. Before this week's play, there were 10 teams ahead of us in the coaches' poll.

1). No matter how many SEC teams are in the top ten now, it's only possible for one team to represent in the title game. At this point, we'll just resign to the fact that one of those teams will make an appearance in the title game. From the perspective of OSU's chances of being back in the picture, it's inconsequential at this point which team actually makes it. That eliminates three teams ahead of us.

2). SC looks like the only Pac10 team that has a credible shot at the title. For OSU to have any chance at all, SC needs to lose one more game. Cal just lost, so that eliminates one more team ahead of us.

3). Boise State. I believe that if we stay close enough with Boise in the polls, we should be ahead of them in the BCS rankings due to our superior strength of schedule. For example, if heading into the last BCS poll, we were ranked third and they were second in the coaches' poll, we should be ahead in the overall BCS rankings. If my belief is correct, we can also eliminate Boise as a contender.

4). No team can emerge from the B12. It helps that we don't have more "Heisman candidates" out of the conference this year, as Mizzo and TT all have new QBs, so that may mitigate the hype about that conference. OU's schedule screams of one more loss. If they do indeed lose, it would take them out of contention. Of course, it would be preferable if they lose to someone like Miami and beat UT, in which case UT would have to win out in order to remain in title contention. If UT defeats OU, they would need to lose two games to be left out of the title game. That's very unlikely.

5). VaTech is the only possible contender out of the ACC, but chances are very good that they'll lose to someone like UNC. Plus, if Alabama goes on to represent the SEC, then it's unlikely that voters would want a rematch in the title game.

6). Of course, we need to win out. PSU should already be out of the top ten, and if Michigan can stay in the top twenty, beating them at the end of the year should help our cause.

So to summarize,

- Six teams ahead of us in the current poll is already out of contention. (3 of the four SEC teams that have no chance, Cal, PSU, and Boise).

- We need SC to lose one more.

- We need OU to beat UT and lose one more game. And we need UT to lose one more additional game.

Root against SC, OU, and UT every chance you have.

 

[BB73]

A quick look at how we can get back into the NC picture. Before this week's play, there were 10 teams ahead of us in the coaches' poll.

1). No matter how many SEC teams are in the top ten now, it's only possible for one team to represent in the title game. At this point, we'll just resign to the fact that one of those teams will make an appearance in the title game. From the perspective of OSU's chances of being back in the picture, it's inconsequential at this point which team actually makes it. That eliminates three teams ahead of us.

2). SC looks like the only Pac10 team that has a credible shot at the title. For OSU to have any chance at all, SC needs to lose one more game. Cal just lost, so that eliminates one more team ahead of us.

3). Boise State. I believe that if we stay close enough with Boise in the polls, we should be ahead of them in the BCS rankings due to our superior strength of schedule. For example, if heading into the last BCS poll, we were ranked third and they were second in the coaches' poll, we should be ahead in the overall BCS rankings. If my belief is correct, we can also eliminate Boise as a contender.

4). No team can emerge from the B12. It helps that we don't have more "Heisman candidates" out of the conference this year, as Mizzo and TT all have new QBs, so that may mitigate the hype about that conference. OU's schedule screams of one more loss. If they do indeed lose, it would take them out of contention. Of course, it would be preferable if they lose to someone like Miami and beat UT, in which case UT would have to win out in order to remain in title contention. If UT defeats OU, they would need to lose two games to be left out of the title game. That's very unlikely.

5). VaTech is the only possible contender out of the ACC, but chances are very good that they'll lose to someone like UNC. Plus, if Alabama goes on to represent the SEC, then it's unlikely that voters would want a rematch in the title game.

6). Of course, we need to win out. PSU should already be out of the top ten, and if Michigan can stay in the top twenty, beating them at the end of the year should help our cause.

So to summarize,

- Six teams ahead of us in the current poll is already out of contention. (3 of the four SEC teams that have no chance, Cal, PSU, and Boise).

- We need SC to lose one more.

- We need OU to beat UT and lose one more game. And we need UT to lose one more additional game.

Root against SC, OU, and UT every chance you have.

Good analysis, but I think we also need to look out from behind for undefeated BCS teams.

I'd say tOSU also needs to have Cincy lose - their OOC schedule of at Oregon State, and hosting Fresno State and Illinois, can justify their making the title game if they're undefeated.

USF is also undefeated from the Big East, and just won at FSU.

Amazingly, UCLA is the last undefeated team from the Pac 10.

And the Kansas-Mizzou winner could be undefeated and get some juice if they beat the OU-Texas winner in the Big 12 CCG. I'm dismissing the possibility of aTm doing anything.

Non-BCS teams:

Houston might jump tOSU this week, with wins over Okie State and Texas Tech, but I don't think their schedule will justify a BCS title game appearance at the end of the year.

The same goes for TCU, who shouldn't jump tOSU unless the Buckeyes lose again.

 

[msj2487]

Root against SC, OU, and UT every chance you have.

Not a chance, I'm rooting 110% for UT to win out... had OSU pulled out the win against USC, I would root against UT, but no way in hell I want Tebow winning 2 Heisman trophies. And if Colt McCoy can't beat him out for the 2009 Heisman, then nobody can. Before this week, Jahvid Best had a shot, but now its Colt or nothing, and as Ohio State fans we need to be 110% behind the Buckeyes (first and foremost) and then right behind the Longhorns as well, no excuses... we need to preserve Archies namesake.

Go Bucks, Go Texas, Go McCoy!!!

 

[NateG]

1Florida (59) 3-0 1475
2Texas 3-0 1412
3Alabama 3-0 1355
4Penn State 3-0 1274
5Mississippi 2-0 1182
6California 3-0 1149
7LSU 3-0 1122
8Boise State 3-0 976
9Oklahoma 2-1 917
10USC 2-1 905
11Ohio State 2-1 900
12Virginia Tech 2-1 853
13Miami (FL) 2-0 724
14TCU 2-0 701
15Cincinnati 3-0 580
16Oklahoma State 2-1 576
17Georgia 2-1 457
18North Carolina 3-0 445
19Kansas 3-0 381
20Brigham Young 2-1 279
21Missouri 3-0 214
22Michigan 3-0 205
23Houston 2-0 160
24Nebraska 2-1 158
25Florida State 2-1 154


Teams highlighted lost this week. This being the Coaches poll is a determining poll unlike the AP. Herbstriet said that he feels it would be hard for coaches to put Boise in the top 5 and that he feels they have a glass ceiling. He said teams in BCS conferences will hop over them moving forward due to the teams SOS. This would be true for teams with one loss also...OKLA, USC, OHIO ST, VA TECH...etc.

Looking forward TOP 2 teams are on bye next week, giving teams a chance to make a statement to get into the top 4 with voters not watching the top 2. LSU plays Florida in 2 weeks after LSU plays Georgia. Alabama plays Ole Miss in 2 weeks then has LSU down the line. Texas plays OKLA on 10/17 then OK ST 2 weeks later. OKLa has a rough 6 game sched @Miami,Baylor, Texas,@ Kansas, Kansas ST, @ Nebraska... probably one loss in there with or without Bradford IMO. USC plays @CAL next week then followed by @ND, Oreg ST, @Oregon... possible loss in those 4 weeks. CAL has a fairly easy schedule after USC. VA TECH will probably jump OSU in the Coaches and look at a easy week(Duke) followed by BC, @GT, and UNC...would need a loss in that 3 game stretch or in the ACC title game. Only other teams in range right now considering OSU will likely win at IND are:

Cincy
OK ST
TCU
Kansas
Missouri
Houston
...other teams have 1 loss and are unlikely to jump OSU without a OSU loss...

Also with IOWA and scUM moving into better positions, it helps OSU's end of year SOS and will give them an opportunity to move up at the end of the regular season. OSU's win today should butt them up against teams ahead of them...OKLA/USC and possibly could force a jump of Boise unless VA Tech jumps to 5 with the win over Miami. Only other decisions are where to put the 3 teams that lost to Unranked teams (Ole Miss/ Penn St/ Cal) and I believe they drop out of top 10.

My personal upadated Coaches top 10 look like this:

1 Florida
2 Texas
3 Alabama
4 LSU
5 Va Tech
6 Boise St
7 Oklahoma
8 USC
9 Ohio St
10 Cincinnati


Week of 10/03 games to watch(not including unforseen upsets):

OKLA vs MIA
Mich at Mich St.
ALA at UK
Penn ST at ILL
LSU at Georg
Wash at ND
USC at CAL

and obviously OSU at IND... another Big win could be critical this week going into a game against a tougher opponent(Wisc). OSU schedule looks promising especially with road vs home games. Hard games at home til Novemeber when you add PSU and scUM.

@IND 3-1
Wisc 4-0 (play Minn next week)
@Pur 1-3
Minn 3-1(see above)
NMSU 2-2
@PSU 3-1(play scUM on 10/24)
Iowa 4-0(play scUM 10/10)
@scUM 4-0(see above)

Chaos Mode is now in Full Effect and I believe it will last the rest of the year. (I will update possible loss games for relevant teams after next weeks games)

 

[fanaticbuckeye]

If we don't make it to the national championship game, I have decided that I am rooting for an opportunity to destroy and embarrass Ntre Ame in a BCS bowl game. Even though I see them losing at least 3 more times this year, I can hope.

 

[Mike80]

LSU and Arkansas are up next, but they have a bye next week. I wouldn't get my hopes up for Tebow missing any time.http://www.stubhub.com/florida-gators-football-tickets/

 

[rocketman]

 

[SCBuck13]

New AP Poll is out.
2009 NCAA College Football Polls and Rankings for Week 5 - ESPN

1 Florida (58)4-01474
2 Texas (1)4-01410
3 Alabama4-01364
4 LSU4-01226
5 Boise State4-01144
6 Virginia Tech3-11091
7 USC3-11081
8 Oklahoma2-11055
9 Ohio State3-11036
10 TCU3-0928
11 Cincinnati4-0848
12 Oklahoma State3-1665
13 Penn State3-1627
14 Georgia3-1616
15 Houston3-0539
16 Kansas4-0508
17 Iowa4-0462
18 Mississippi2-1424
19 California3-1356
20 Michigan4-0304
21 Miami (FL)2-1298
21 Brigham Young3-1298
23 Missouri4-0295
24 Nebraska3-1242
25 Oregon

 

[Steve19]

New AP Poll is out.
2009 NCAA College Football Polls and Rankings for Week 5 - ESPN

1 Florida (58)4-01474
2 Texas (1)4-01410
3 Alabama4-01364
4 LSU4-01226
5 Boise State4-01144
6 Virginia Tech3-11091
7 USC3-11081
8 Oklahoma2-11055
9 Ohio State3-11036
10 TCU3-0928
11 Cincinnati4-0848
12 Oklahoma State3-1665
13 Penn State3-1627
14 Georgia3-1616
15 Houston3-0539
16 Kansas4-0508
17 Iowa4-0462
18 Mississippi2-1424
19 California3-1356
20 Michigan4-0304
21 Miami (FL)2-1298
21 Brigham Young3-1298
23 Missouri4-0295
24 Nebraska3-1242
25 Oregon

Ohio State is #9 in the Coaches and AP polls, about .25 to .50 average places per voter behind Oklahoma.

 

[Steve19]

• Oklahoma loses at least once in next three weeks.
• Virginia Tech is looking downhill from here, only #25 Georgia Tech ranked between now and year-end.
• LSU probably loses the next two weeks.
• Cincy also is looking downhill, not one ranked team between now and year-end.