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B1G CCG: #1 tOSU vs #2 Indiana in Indy, Sat. Dec 6th, 8 ET on FOX

OK, this may be a little long but here is my .02 on this thing. It's all about match ups. IU looks good on paper but here is why I think this isn't quite as close as some may think. This is based on structure that can be seen from statistical analysis and viewing games, not some sweeping generalization or being biased by the name "Indiana" in football.

So how does each team win and how does that match what the other team does?
IU Offense: IU needs long, mistake-free drives. OSU is built to make those extremely low probability to near impossible to do consistently.

Indiana wants 10–12 play drives built on:
-short throws
-easy runs
-manageable 2nd-and-6
-no negative plays

Ohio State’s defense is elite at forcing you off schedule. They take away the easy stuff, push you into 3rd-and-long, and force you to execute difficult throws. Indiana isn’t built to convert a lot of 3rd-and-7s. Eventually, drives die.

This isn’t about blitzing or chaos — OSU just wins the efficiency battle every snap.

IU Defense is built to stop huge plays (explosives). OSU offense kills you with efficiency.

Indiana’s defense is constructed to avoid deep bombs. That works on most opponents but Ohio State doesn’t need 60-yard touchdowns to be explosive.
Their receivers win one-on-one matchups so often that simple plays turn into 20–30 yard gains.
These “intermediate explosives” are exactly the weak spot in Indiana’s defensive structure.

So Indiana’s biggest defensive strength does not actually apply in this matchup.

OSU offense is designed to win every play by a small margin and those margins accumulate.

Ohio State doesn’t try to run 80 plays or score in two snaps. They’re perfectly happy running a modest tempo because they know:
-every OSU play is slightly in their favor
-every Indiana play is slightly against them
-running fewer plays is risk management. It reduces variance.
-reduce variance and the emphasis is on skill and talent.

Over the course of 60–70 plays, a 5% advantage per snap becomes a 17–24 point gap.

This is what we were talking about in another thread-efficiency and fewer plays.
Day is not hunting fireworks — he's suffocating you.

So then I look at what makes IU successful: Special teams and turnovers.

IU scores a lot this year on:
-blocked kicks
-strip sacks
-tipped-ball INTs
-short fields

These come from opponents putting the ball in harm’s way. OSU does not:
-force dangerous throws
-call plays that take forever to develop
-expose the QB to blindside hits
-play tempo that creates chaotic situations

Ohio State’s risk profile is extremely low. They do not give away cheap points. Indiana’s best “equalizers” simply aren’t available.

Another "style" problem for IU: once they get behind, their style collapses.
If the game stays tight, Indiana can hang around for a quarter or two. But once Indiana trails by 10+:
-they can’t lean on long drives anymore
-OSU’s pass rush becomes the dominant force
-the QB has to throw into OSU’s zone windows
-mistakes start happening
-field position swings heavily toward OSU

This is where the game typically breaks open. Nothing dramatic — just OSU slowly squeezing them until the scoreboard reflects the talent and matchup gap.

TLDR version:
Indiana needs to win a lot of plays in a row. Ohio State only needs to win a few plays by a lot. OSU’s roster, scheme, and style are built to, essentially, guarantee that Indiana can’t string those long, perfect drives together.
Meanwhile, OSU’s receivers create easy 20-yard gains that Indiana’s defense is not equipped to stop. Over time, OSU’s small advantages on every snap stack up, and Indiana eventually gets squeezed out of the game.


The "shape" of the game is most likely:
-OSU controls efficiency, tempo and field position.
-IU can't produce enough explosives to keep up
-The score is comfortable by mid 3rd quarter but never gets into full on blowout range.

Most likely score: OSU 31-IU 14

That said, there is obviously a way for IU to win, if OSU turns it over 2+ times and IU gets a ST score and this could get into upset range.
More detail please.
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QB1 Julian Sayin (All B1G, B1G Frosh of Year, All American, National Frosh of Year, National Champion)

The last time I felt this confident in aQB he wore #13 in Miami and I dont mean the Hurricanes.
I have to say I’ve never watched a quarterback drop back for a pass with more of an upbeat expectation on every single snap than Julian Sayin, but watching #19 in Cleveland was always a blast for me. He looked so bad at being so good. That always put a smile on my face.
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2026 TX RB Legend Bey has signed!!!

Jalen Marshall onw up
I’ll say it….props to Tennessee for doing the right thing here.

I kinda thought they’d stick it to OSU and make it hard on Legend….they’re doing the right thing for the kid.

One side note according to my son who follows recruiting even more than I do bc of coverage on YouTube….Legend and CH Jr. have become very close through the process…..maybe it helps swing CH Jr. back??

With agents getting involved player relations are going to start to matter. Schools screw kids over agents will absolutely be in the ears of kids over it and it will 100% bite the program - in the age of social media there’s no hiding this kind of vrap.

Hilarious I’m talking about having integrity in a game that’s dirtier than ______
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Penn State Cult (Joe Knew)

They are so delusional that the top two names on their lists were Meyer and Saban. What the fuck makes them think either of those guys would want to coach Penn State?

"And I've saved the best for last. But, I have to let you know that I went through A LOT of trouble to make this happen. I thought even suggesting this might cost me my job! Get this: We are going to let you work in Joe Paterno's very own office! Look! It's exactly the same as the day he left in 2011! But, of course, you're not allowed to change anything. Wait a second, what am I saying? Why would you want to change anything? Coach Meyer? Why are you putting on your coat? Coach Meyer, come back! Where are you going?"
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2026 TX RB Legend Bey has signed!!!

At this point, how can you NOT believe it’s family interference for money?

1) A player that is truly committed to a school would have already publicly denounced the rumor mill that is floating around. They wouldn’t let their reputation be drug through the mud for no reason, especially if it all isn’t true. Just a few sentences is all it would take.

2) Day and Heupel aren’t even in the same class of coaching, and neither are the programs. One is actively winning champions, the other is trying to resurrect itself from the 1990s. Why wouldn’t you want your son to go to the best school if offered? Especially considering the string of recent RB success over the last 10 years: Zeke, Dobbins, Sermon, Henderson, Judkins - all drafted into the NFL and still starting or contributing meaningfully.

3) It can’t be about location. The flight from Dallas to Columbus is just as easy as a flight to Knoxville.

If this is a mess his parents have made, I feel bad for the kid. It could reach a point where the Buckeyes wash their hands of the drama and the kid is unhappily stuck until he can transfer to another school and likely unhappy with his own family.

Hopefully we read some positive things about the kid soon. I truly wish him the best, he’s just a high school senior.
It's the SEC. If they ain't cheating, they ain't 'crootin. They’re gonna pay these kids closest friends and fam if the NIL alone won't work
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2026 CA WR Chris Henry Jr. has signed!!!

I’m speculating but I think great friend Legend Bay bailing for TN on top of Hartline taking a HC job…..a lot hit him at once.

I think Bey coming back into the fold and letting the emotions settle a bit is trending this back to us. JMO.
I doubt Bey has any impact on his decision tbh...
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2026 TX RB Legend Bey has signed!!!

I’ll say it….props to Tennessee for doing the right thing here.

I kinda thought they’d stick it to OSU and make it hard on Legend….they’re doing the right thing for the kid.

One side note according to my son who follows recruiting even more than I do bc of coverage on YouTube….Legend and CH Jr. have become very close through the process…..maybe it helps swing CH Jr. back??
I mean what choice do they have? Either play it right and do right by the kid or get got thru the portal and the truth comes out.
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