I'll be curious to see how much tempo IU uses. Illinois had some success against us when they went no huddle

buckeyemania11 said:

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Live look at Donovan Edwards

BuckeyeNation27 said:

Cliff's notes: Lane's a hoe

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That’s “heaux” now.

11W Forums

bwherbert 9 minutes ago
Brief summary of Birm's latest:

-Chris Henry Jr. is gone to Oregon – OSU fought hard but refused to match an “unreasonable” NIL number for an unproven freshman. Ohio State’s offer to Henry was massive (more than any incoming frosh except Jeremiah Smith) but still had a limit; Birm believes OSU was right not to go higher.

-Blames timing of Hartline news + Oregon’s aggressive money game; says Mater Dei (CA) kids are no longer worth the headache.

-Legend Bey situation is “one of the wildest ever” – signed with Tennessee under family pressure, immediately tried to back out; Birm now thinks he’ll end up back at Ohio State once released or after he turns 18.

OK, this may be a little long but here is my .02 on this thing. It's all about match ups. IU looks good on paper but here is why I think this isn't quite as close as some may think. This is based on structure that can be seen from statistical analysis and viewing games, not some sweeping generalization or being biased by the name "Indiana" in football.

So how does each team win and how does that match what the other team does?
IU Offense: IU needs long, mistake-free drives. OSU is built to make those extremely low probability to near impossible to do consistently.

Indiana wants 10–12 play drives built on:
-short throws
-easy runs
-manageable 2nd-and-6
-no negative plays

Ohio State’s defense is elite at forcing you off schedule. They take away the easy stuff, push you into 3rd-and-long, and force you to execute difficult throws. Indiana isn’t built to convert a lot of 3rd-and-7s. Eventually, drives die.

This isn’t about blitzing or chaos — OSU just wins the efficiency battle every snap.

IU Defense is built to stop huge plays (explosives). OSU offense kills you with efficiency.

Indiana’s defense is constructed to avoid deep bombs. That works on most opponents but Ohio State doesn’t need 60-yard touchdowns to be explosive.
Their receivers win one-on-one matchups so often that simple plays turn into 20–30 yard gains.
These “intermediate explosives” are exactly the weak spot in Indiana’s defensive structure.

So Indiana’s biggest defensive strength does not actually apply in this matchup.

OSU offense is designed to win every play by a small margin and those margins accumulate.

Ohio State doesn’t try to run 80 plays or score in two snaps. They’re perfectly happy running a modest tempo because they know:
-every OSU play is slightly in their favor
-every Indiana play is slightly against them
-running fewer plays is risk management. It reduces variance.
-reduce variance and the emphasis is on skill and talent.

Over the course of 60–70 plays, a 5% advantage per snap becomes a 17–24 point gap.

This is what we were talking about in another thread-efficiency and fewer plays.
Day is not hunting fireworks — he's suffocating you.

So then I look at what makes IU successful: Special teams and turnovers.

IU scores a lot this year on:
-blocked kicks
-strip sacks
-tipped-ball INTs
-short fields

These come from opponents putting the ball in harm’s way. OSU does not:
-force dangerous throws
-call plays that take forever to develop
-expose the QB to blindside hits
-play tempo that creates chaotic situations

Ohio State’s risk profile is extremely low. They do not give away cheap points. Indiana’s best “equalizers” simply aren’t available.

Another "style" problem for IU: once they get behind, their style collapses.
If the game stays tight, Indiana can hang around for a quarter or two. But once Indiana trails by 10+:
-they can’t lean on long drives anymore
-OSU’s pass rush becomes the dominant force
-the QB has to throw into OSU’s zone windows
-mistakes start happening
-field position swings heavily toward OSU

This is where the game typically breaks open. Nothing dramatic — just OSU slowly squeezing them until the scoreboard reflects the talent and matchup gap.

TLDR version:
Indiana needs to win a lot of plays in a row. Ohio State only needs to win a few plays by a lot. OSU’s roster, scheme, and style are built to, essentially, guarantee that Indiana can’t string those long, perfect drives together.
Meanwhile, OSU’s receivers create easy 20-yard gains that Indiana’s defense is not equipped to stop. Over time, OSU’s small advantages on every snap stack up, and Indiana eventually gets squeezed out of the game.


The "shape" of the game is most likely:
-OSU controls efficiency, tempo and field position.
-IU can't produce enough explosives to keep up
-The score is comfortable by mid 3rd quarter but never gets into full on blowout range.

Most likely score: OSU 31-IU 14

That said, there is obviously a way for IU to win, if OSU turns it over 2+ times and IU gets a ST score and this could get into upset range.

Easily the best staff in college football. Already losing one of the best in the country, lock this guy down longterm please!

osuvictory1 said:

Our fans are ridiculous. This dude rattled off teams that got a good return after a championship run, yet aren't nearly as well rounded as OSU using the strategy that OSU is using.

JHC!!

Brain dead low level thinkers.

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Did you really believe that the Fire Ryan Day! crowd was going to go away after just ONE national championship?

Honor&Glory said:

12-0 and covered like 10 spreads and people still provide this team with motivation by doubting them.

Nice.

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Hehe, 15-1 against the spread since last seasons loss to the fuck heads up north. That's unheard of

This is where NIL becomes huge.

He can make more at OSU next year with guaranteed $$$ versus being a Day 2 or 3 pick, making $300k - $400k and competing for a roster spot.

Coming back for guaranteed cash and an opportunity to improve his draft position will look like a nice opportunity.

ScriptOhio said:

Julian Sayin, Tywone Malone Jr. and Caleb Downs Lead Pro Football Focus’ Highest-Graded Ohio State Players Against Michigan

Julian Sayin, Tywone Malone Jr. and Caleb Downs were Pro Football Focus’ highest-rated players for Ohio State in the Buckeyes’ 27-9 win over Michigan.

www.elevenwarriors.com

QB Julian Sayin

How dominant has Julian Sayin been this season? He has been Ohio State's highest-rated player for half of the season's 12 games. That happens when you are the best graded quarterback in overall offense (93.4) and passing (93.2) in the nation for the season.

Another category Sayin has been super in is completing passes. Not only is his completion percentage of 78.9 the best of any quarterback this season, it's the highest for any quarterback for a season ... ever.

PFF's Weekly Top 3 Buckeyes

GAME	1	2	3
Texas	DT Kayden McDonald (82.4)	DT Will Smith Jr. (80.7)	CB Jermaine Mathews Jr. (78.0)
Grambling	DT Kayden McDonald (93.6)	TE Jelani Thurman (93.0)	QB Lincoln Kienholz (88.1)
Ohio	DE Caden Curry (92.5)	LB Sonny Styles (89.2)	QB Julian Sayin (85.4)
Washington	DE Caden Curry (80.3)*	OL Carson Hinzman (80.3)*	OL Austin Siereveld (75.8)
Minnesota	QB Julian Sayin (91.9)	WR Carnell Tate (86.9)	S Lorenzo Styles Jr. (84.8)
Illinois	QB Julian Sayin (86.0)	DT Kayden McDonald (85.5)	DE Caden Curry (79.0)
Wisconsin	QB Julian Sayin (91.4)	WR Carnell Tate (82.5)	LB Payton Pierce (80.8)
Penn State	QB Julian Sayin (92.7)	DT Eddrick Houston (92.2)	WR Jeremiah Smith (90.1)
Purdue	QB Julian Sayin (89.2)	DT Kayden McDonald (88.3)	WR Jeremiah Smith (87.2)
UCLA	RT Phillip Daniels (90.1)	TE Nate Roberts (87.9)	RB James Peoples (86.7)
Rutgers	DE Caden Curry (92.8)	CB Davison Igbinosun (90.6)#	Jelani Thurman (90.6)#
Michigan	QB Julian Sayin (82.0)	DT Tywone Malone Jr. (80.0)	S Caleb Downs (78.4)

Just sayin': He's just rsFreshman and it's his 1st year actually playing; so I'm guessing that he hasn't come close to "hitting his ceiling' yet.

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Unbelievable. Sayin has the potential to leave as the greatest QB in OSU history. The comparisons of him to Brees are pretty accurate.

Goodluck to CHJ. We move on. They got lanning and we got Ryan Day. The proof of quality QBs that come into our program with the transfer portal of proven WRs moving forward we will be just fine. Still gonna pull high 4-5 star WRs. Defense looks great moving forward aswell

Sign him for 10 years 50 million lol.

restless said:

Birm on 97.1 the fan just said CHJ to Oregon.

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Welp, if Oregon wants a war, then a war they shall get. It's time to bury that program.

Jaxbuck said:

You guys really think that pointing out the absurd depth of talent at WR we have enjoyed is a good example of why Hartline will be replaced and OSU won't skip a beat?

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I doubt anything we say here matters to CHJ. If he checks here out for guidance, I'd be more worried.

The point is, there is never a bad time to reminisce about great Buckeye times.

Birm on 97.1 the fan just said CHJ to Oregon.

You guys really think that pointing out the absurd depth of talent at WR we have enjoyed is a good example of why Hartline will be replaced and OSU won't skip a beat?

colobuck79 said:

Every time I see "Hiter", my brain turns it into "Hitler."

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Donovan Edwards approves of this message.

BB73 said:

When Olave and Wilson understandably sat out the Rose Bowl, our passing game completely tanked,

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Only 573 yds passing. How can they look at themselves in the mirror? I'm talking to you, CJ, JSN. And Marvin, with only 3 TDs. geez...

Wild. I thought he'd get at least one of the 2nd teams

restless said:

I thought so when we lost Olave and Wilson, then JSN, then Marvin, then JJ, ... you get the picture.

Brian will be missed, though.

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When Olave and Wilson understandably sat out the Rose Bowl, our passing game completely tanked.