A rough weekend for teams bidding to host March Madness benefits Ohio State
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The Buckeyes lost in Maryland, but hope is not lost for First and Second Round games in Columbus.
On Thursday,
Ohio State women’s basketball dropped to No. 16 in the NCAA Tournament committee’s top-16 rankings — which comprises the list of teams that would currently be seeded Nos. 1-4 were the March Madness bracket announced today. In the women’s tourney, that is extra important, because those 16 teams would all be in line to host the first and second rounds. That meant the margin for error was thin for the Buckeyes, needing a strong showing in the last game of the season, which more or less didn’t happen.
The Buckeyes traveled to College Park, Maryland and lost two starters to fouls and fell to the Terrapins on a last second shot in overtime.
Considering that the committee looks at not only AP rankings but also NET rankings and the quality of wins, the 'Buckeyes' loss to the Terps was a quad-one game, the highest difficulty and worth the most in the committee's eyes. It reduced Ohio State’s record in quad-one games to 4-4, which is important to remember when evaluating the teams competing for their spot in the rankings.
However, Ohio State fans do not have all hope lost. The Buckeyes received some help over the weekend.
Here’s a rundown of how close programs to the Scarlet and Gray in the NET and top-16 rankings played this weekend, and what it means for the Buckeyes. Note that rankings connected to teams reflect AP ranking on game day, not NET or top-16 committee seeding (unless mentioned).
No. 19 Alabama - 84-91 defeat to No. 13 Oklahoma Sooners
A few hours after the committee released the 16 teams they see hosting, the
Alabama Crimson Tide defeated the No. 7
LSU Tigers in an overtime thriller in Tuscaloosa. The Crimson Tide have been in the top-25 of the Associated Press for all but two weeks this season, and sat ahead of the Buckeyes in the NET prior to the win. Defeating them only made their case stronger to slip into a top-16 seed for the NCAA Tournament.
That climb suffered a minor setback on Sunday, in Norman, Oklahoma at the hands of the No. 13 Sooners. Oklahoma sent the Crimson Tide home with a quad one defeat, putting Alabama at 5-7 in their toughest games this season. More losses than Ohio State, but Alabama also challenged themselves to four more quad one games in the regular season than the Buckeyes.
With the quality of opponent, the Crimson Tide stayed at No. 15 in the NET after the loss, three spots ahead of the Buckeyes.
Alabama heads into the
SEC Tournament as the No. 6 seed. They will face the winner of the Florida Gators and the Auburn Tigers who play on the first day of the conference slate. The Crimson Tide beat the Gators twice in the regular season, and the Tigers once, and should Alabama win in the second round, it’s a rematch against the LSU Tigers in the quarterfinal in a highly anticipated rematch from only a week prior.
Ohio State benefits if Alabama is upset, obviously, but should they move on, there may be Buckeye fans cheering for head coach Kim Mulkey’s Tigers on Friday.
No. 17 Baylor Bears - 48-51 defeat to No. 10 TCU Horned Frogs
In a de facto Big 12 championship game, the
Baylor Bears welcomed the Horned Frogs to Waco to not only lift a trophy but continue their winning streak that stretched to nine games heading into Sunday. The Horned Frogs weren’t interested in helping and center Sedona Prince had 16 points and 19 rebounds in a defensive battle that ended in
TCU’s favor.
Like Alabama, the loss didn’t move the Bears down in the NET, staying set at No. 16. It gives Baylor a 3-4 record in quad one wins, giving Ohio State another advantage, although slight.
Baylor is the No. 2 seed in the
Big 12 Tournament, advancing to the quarterfinals automatically, like the Buckeyes. Either the Cincinnati Bearcats,
Arizona State Sun Devils or
Iowa State Cyclones will face Baylor, with the Cyclones the No. 7 seed, waiting until day two to play the winner of the first two schools.
Speaking of the Iowa State Cyclones, center Audi Crooks helped Ohio State over the weekend.
No. 14 Kansas State - 63-85 defeat to Iowa State
The Iowa State Cyclones entered the 2024-25 season as the No. 8 team in the preseason AP Poll. After five weeks of defeats to start the season, the Cyclones left the poll altogether and have been on the periphery for most of the season, until Sunday.
With
Kansas State center Ayoka Lee still sidelined with a foot injury, Cyclones star Audi Crooks had no equals inside the post and scored 36 points with 10 rebounds. Also, 17 points, 10 assists and 7 rebounds for guard Emily Ryan made Iowa State too much for Kansas State, handing the Wildcats their third loss in the last four games.
The losses too have been big, each by double-digits, with Sunday’s the largest deficit of the three losses. It dropped K-State down six places in the AP Poll Monday, but only one spot to No. 9 in the NET. That’s with a 2-5 record in quad one games.
Despite the higher than expected NET ranking, what’s important is that Kansas State was No. 15 in the NCAA Tournament committee seeding, making them at direct competition with the Buckeyes for hosting duties.
K-State dropped to a No. 5 seed for the Big 12 Tournament. Should they get past UCF or
BYU on day two, the Wildcats have to face the
West Virginia Mountaineers, another team that’s putting together a resume to challenge for a top-16 spot in March Madness.
Other Happenings on the Top-16 Fringe
Those are not the only three teams to challenge for a spot, when looking at the AP and NET rankings. Here are a few other games that could impact seeding, with some helping and others hurting Ohio State’s chances following a Sunday loss to Maryland.
- Ole Miss 85-77 win over LSU - Ole Miss has a strong strength of schedule in the SEC, and sits at No. 12 in the NET after winning in Baton Rouge. While they aren’t an AP ranked team, a strong tournament run could turn heads.
- No. 18 West Virginia 85-69 win over Cincinnati - The Mountaineers have two ranked wins on the season against Oklahoma State and K-State, but sit at No. 11 in the NET and have one loss in the last five games, however, that loss came to TCU in a 21-point rout for the Horned Frogs
- No. 11 Tennessee 69-72 defeat to Georgia - Tennessee came in at 12 in the top-16 seeding, but has two tough defeats since the announcement. A lopsided 58-82 defeat to the No. 15 Kentucky Wildcats and a home defeat to the then 11-18 Georgia Bulldogs. It was a close defeat, only by three points, but it dropped the Vols down two spots to No. 14 in the NET. Could no wins in the SEC Tournament and a couple of wins by Ohio State swing momentum in the Buckeyes’ favor?
At this point, the best thing the Buckeyes can do is not hope for other teams to struggle alongside them. Ohio State potentially plays either the
Michigan State Spartans,
Iowa Hawkeyes or
Wisconsin Badgers. Of those three, two of the teams showed they can defeat the Buckeyes, with the Badgers the lone side that seems to be on a lower tier of Big Ten talent.
Regardless of what happens with the non-Ohio State teams above, a loss in the Buckeyes’ first tournament game could be a final nail in the metaphorical coffin that is traveling for early March Madness games.
However, a win in the quarterfinals and a potential shock upset against the UCLA Bruins may be enough to save the airline miles for another day.
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