Jaxbuck said:

Team A gets the opening kick, holds it for 30 minutes and scores.
Team B gets second half kick off, punts
Team A takes possession, holds end of game
Team A 2 possessions, Team B 1

(Back to the math of IU and OSU. if IU gets a 10-9 edge in possessions it projects to be 25-20, not 25-23 if both teams get 10. Margin increases by playing to take away the extra possession.)

Chop it up however you want inside of that, the ability to be +1 is clear. Then you layer in the context of gaining mor points per possession than the other team because you are more skilled.

Now, real world football, the more skilled team has the larger per possession delta and by the mid 3rd quarter, early 4th quarter the lesser team is behind and has to play very predictably. It is clear to anyone paying attention that the lesser skilled team is running out of possessions.

The increase in win % by even 1 extra possession is worth the downside to the strategy of winning by efficiency and that does not capture the increase in win % when the last 2-3 possessions of the game are do or die, have to try and go fast, pass only constrained nightmares for the opponent.

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brodybuck21 said:

11W Forums

KYBuck4858 20 minutes ago
Couple more CB updates:
5* John Meredith says A&M and Bama lead followed by OSU. Looking to make a spring decision - this is expected, that we're on the outside looking in. I see us taking 2-3 guys ranked between 100-300 this cycle. Possibly stretch to get a top50 guy like Henry (see below). We need numbers more so than spending on star power.
Top-50 CB Raylaun Henry said he’s “150 percent committed” to A&M but could official visit to Ohio State and Alabama during the summer - welcome to modern recruiting. But this is one that I'd love to push for. Teammate of OSU's Khmari Bing.

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Captain Buckeye said:

I agree with this. When you’re heavily advantaged it doesn’t matter how you play and like you point out maybe the more plays the better to hash things out.

The issue I think many of us have (including a lot of the media it seems) is we had the advantage in nearly all of the games yet still continued with the same approach all year.

So in your opinion what’s the correct approach when your defense is elite but offense is just merely good? I’d think (in these rare situations) we should have more opportunities. First because the defense can take the stress but also because you’re likely to need the extra possessions due to drive efficiency going down.

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pnuts34 said:

Login to view embedded media Miami was hoping to get him. Welp

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dragurd said:

New Iggy?

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pnuts34 said:

I think he was unhappy that a true frosh beat him out for more PT. And also I had heard of maturity issues off the field. Idk specifics, but that's what was said on multiple pods

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twister55 said:

in case anyone was looking for a good copy

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sparcboxbuck said:

Those of us in the optimization business would refer to that as 'constrained optimization.' And yeah, it's fuck'n hard. More constraints, all things being equal, significantly reduce the likelihood of global optimization as you're focused on solution optimization in the constrained space. If the global optimal lies outside of the local constrained space, there's no chance to globally optimize without relaxing constraint(s). That's the real math of it. We can debate all day long what the best method for local optimization under constraints would be, but I think @Jaxbuck is doing a pretty good job of explaining / interpreting what we would guess Day was operating under while managing through the season.

That said, I think that a more nuanced set of heuristics could be applied. Something along the lines of:

-- When there is a significant advantage for the offense and defense do whatever the hell you want to do. I'd argue that this is where you speed up play, practice things against someone who wants to take your head off your shoulders, experiment with tempo and get the starters out early after getting their reps to make room for the 2nd and 3rd lines to get significant run.

-- When there is a significant advantage for the offense but not the defense, long sustained offensive drives to burn clock OR quick strikes for TDs are a must... provided the defense is giving up field goals. Every TD you score for every FG they score creates a 4-point gap in your favor... so you want more plays than the other guy... again, provided the defense is keeping TDs from being scored.

-- Where there is a significant advantage for the defense but not the offense, I agree with the Day MO this year. Minimize where you fall shorter and just be good enough to score one more point than they do... win the games ugly and with defense. Field position is key and the special teams has to be on point.

-- Where there is no significant advantage for either side of the ball... or talent equated games as they like to call them... is really poker on grass. This is where creative play calling and self scouting are stupid important. Break tendencies, find your best match-ups for a play at the line and go play football. This is where I think Day got in trouble this year. Without good OL play to protect a QB who wasn't getting the ball out quick, offensively they were not able to get the ball to the best match-ups. And I don't know that they significantly broke tendencies. The only real tendency that I saw broken was handing the ball to CJ Donaldson when we weren't on the goal line.

Good stuff... I'm really enjoying reading the debate(s) on this.

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SEREbuckeye said:

Like 8 PIs here lol

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