MC&J: Week 8 in the Big Ten is headlined by Michigan-Illinois
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Along with the battle between ranked teams in Champaign, we have picks for Nebraska-Illinois and the rest of this week’s Big Ten action.

Last week ATS: 4-10 (3-4 National, 1-6 B1G)

Season ATS: 59-65 (21-25 National, 38-40 B1G)

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B1G games (All games Saturday unless noted)​

No. 2 Oregon (-27.5) v. Purdue - 8:00 p.m. ET - FOX

Oregon might have thought this season’s most dangerous game on their Big Ten schedule would be against Ohio State. Wrong. We all know going to West Lafayette is the toughest thing any team in the conference will have to do. The Boilermakers may not look like a threat, but that’s exactly what Purdue Pete wants you to think.

The Ducks secured one of their biggest wins in school history on Saturday night when they beat the Buckeyes 32-31. Maybe Ohio State wins if they get a few more ticks on the clock, maybe they don’t. We’ll never know. All we really do know is Oregon has the inside track on a playoff spot.

Purdue showed signs of life last week in a 50-49 overtime loss at Illinois. Ryan Browne started at quarterback for Hudson Card and had himself a day, totaling over 400 yards and three scores. The Boilers even got Devin Mockobee going on the ground, with the running back notching his second 100-yard game of the season.

There’s no question Oregon is the better team. I’m just not sure if they are four touchdowns better in this situation. Coming off a tough game against Ohio State, short week traveling east, and the West Lafayette voodoo magic are all reasons I think the Boilermakers stay inside the number.

Oregon 44, Purdue 23

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Nebraska v. No. 16 Indiana (-6.5) - 12:00 p.m. ET - FOX

Now is when we start to find out how good Indiana really is. The Hoosiers have been feasting off cupcakes in Curt Cignetti’s first year in charge in Bloomington. Quarterback Kurtis Rourke has been nearly flawless this season, throwing for at least 250 yards in each of the last five games, and his only two interceptions on the season came against Maryland. Indiana enters this game just behind Miami when it comes to scoring points this season.

Nebraska desperately needs a win here to avoid slipping any farther in the Big Ten. The Cornhuskers bounced back from an overtime loss to Illinois by beat Purdue and Rutgers. Neither of those wins were all that pretty, but at least Matt Rhule kept a tough loss from spiraling out of control, which is something Mike Riley and Scott Frost couldn’t do.

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As teams have seen more of Raiola they have been able to make him more uncomfortable. Two weeks ago against Rutgers, Raiola failed to throw a touchdown for the first time this season and only totaled 134 yards through the air. I like Indiana with two weeks to prepare to shutdown the Raiola and the Nebraska offense.

Rourke and company continue their Cinderella run for at least another week.

Indiana 35, Nebraska 24

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Wisconsin (-7) v. Northwestern - 12:00 p.m. ET - Big Ten Network

What is going on with the world? Both Wisconsin and Nebraska won by at least 27 points last week. If I had to guess which one was more fluky I’d say it was the Northwestern win, since I looks like Braedyn Locke is comfortable running the Wisconsin offense after Tyler Van Dyke went down with a season-ending injury.

Pretty sure as punishment for losing an 8-team moneyline parlay on Rutgers losing to Wisconsin last week is that now I have to take the Badgers as a road favorite at Northwestern. Luke Fickell makes it three wins in a row.

Wisconsin 34, Northwestern 17

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UCLA v. Rutgers (-4.5) - 12:00 p.m. ET - FS1

This is the second time in three weeks UCLA has had to head east for a noon kickoff. The Bruins weren’t good against Penn State, and last week they blew a second half lead at home against Minnesota. UCLA managed just 36 yards rushing against the Golden Gophers.

With their 42-7 setback against Wisconsin last week, Rutgers now has lost their last two games. The perfect medicine for what ails them is a home game against UCLA. Right now the Bruins look last and taking on an angry Scarlet Knights squad isn’t going to change that.

Rutgers 31, UCLA 13

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No. 24 Michigan (-3) v. No. 22 Illinois - 3:30 p.m. ET - CBS

Last week’s performance from Illinois was puzzling since they gave up 49 points to Purdue in Champaign. As frustrating as everything was for Bret Bielema, all that matters in the end is the Fighting Illini won, keeping them in the mix for the Big Ten title. The bright spot for Illinois was quarterback Luke Altmyer, who now has 14 passing touchdowns after throwing for three scores last week.

Don’t expect to see Michigan trying to throw much in this game. So far this year the Wolverines have 690 passing yards and six passing touchdowns through six games. Donovan Edwards actually had his best game of the season against Washington, rushing for 95 yards and a score in the loss.

The Wolverines are just far too predictable for me to feel comfortable backing them. Even though they can run the ball, I don’t like their chances when they fall behind and are forced to throw the football. Illinois is a little more complete and they shake off the close call against Purdue last week.

Illinois 30, Michigan 20

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USC (7.5) v. Maryland - 4:00 p.m. ET - FS1

Much like UCLA, USC will likely go into this game not knowing what time it is or where they are at since they have been traveling hard in their first season in the Big Ten. So far when leaving the pacific time zone the Trojans haven’t found any success, losing to Michigan and Minnesota. Now USC enters this game having to put last week’s loss to Penn State behind them.

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Maryland is a big mess right now. Not that expectations were all that high for Mike Locksley and the Terrapins, but nobody expected them to struggle as much as they have in 2024. Maryland is coming off an embarrassing loss to Northwestern last week, getting throttled by the Wildcats in College Park. The lack of a running game for the Terrapins is putting more pressure on quarterback Billy Edwards Jr., who has been pretty good this year but can only do so much.

Normally I wouldn’t be too big of a fan of laying more than a touchdown with a team coming east from out west. This feels like a little different scenario since Maryland’s season is spiraling out of control. While USC has their own problems, I think they have the tools to add to the woes of the Terrapins.

USC 37, Maryland 21

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Iowa (-5.5) v. Michigan State - 7:30 p.m. ET - NBC

Last time we saw these two teams they were getting throttled by ranked Big Ten teams on the road. Iowa didn’t get much going in Columbus against Ohio State, while Michigan State couldn’t get anything going against Oregon in Eugene. Both teams had byes last week to try and wash some of the loser stink off of them.

At least with Iowa there looks like some semblance of structure under Kirk Ferentz. The offense at least looks competent in offensive coordinator’s Tim Lester’s first year on the job. If the Hawkeyes can get running back Kaleb Johnson going early it could be a long night for the Michigan State defense. Johnson didn’t have much success against Ohio State since the Buckeyes stopped the run early with their talented defense.

What scares me about backing Michigan State here is the rate at which Aidan Chiles turns the football over. Iowa has an attacking defense that I can see flustering Chiles and forcing him into turnovers, which will allow the Hawkeyes to run the football and wear down the defense of the Spartans. This could look similar to Iowa’s win over Minnesota last month.

Iowa 27, Michigan State 14

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