Operation Chaos mode - BCS Title game contenders

[NateG]

I seriously doubt a one loss Ohio State gets to the championship game over a one loss Texas (especially if that loss is to Oklahoma) this year. Texas kinda got BCScrewed last year and they beat us in our bowl game. Fair? dunno, I just think the human voters would push Texas in ahead of us. Thoughts?

Like I said, We all tend to think this way but OSU has never gotten SNUFFED. Even the year that OSU lost late they awarded it to OSU. If Iowa wins out and scUM's only loss is to Iowa or vice versa... OSU could get alot of love late in the year. At State Penn, Iowa in the top 20, At scUM top 20 could look very good. Texas hasn't proved a whole lot either for this year. TTU isn't as good as last year and that is their key win right now. We'll see when OKLA,OK ST, and some other team's match up with em. They have a tough stretch ahead. Okla,@ Mizz, @ Ok ST, then end the year with Kan and @ A&M. We will know more in 3 weeks.

Plus the humans are only a part of the equation. But again if Ohio State wins out I bet OSU is heavily in the discussion.

 

[Zurp]

Like I said, We all tend to think this way but OSU has never gotten SNUFFED. Even the year that OSU lost late they awarded it to OSU. If Iowa wins out and scUM's only loss is to Iowa or vice versa... OSU could get alot of love late in the year. At State Penn, Iowa in the top 20, At scUM top 20 could look very good. Texas hasn't proved a whole lot either for this year. TTU isn't as good as last year and that is their key win right now. We'll see when OKLA,OK ST, and some other team's match up with em. They have a tough stretch ahead. Okla,@ Mizz, @ Ok ST, then end the year with Kan and @ A&M. We will know more in 3 weeks.

Plus the humans are only a part of the equation. But again if Ohio State wins out I bet OSU is heavily in the discussion.

1-loss teams in BCS-conferences are always in the discussion (unless it's a Big East team). I don't find it likely that there will be 2 teams from BCS conferences that end up with 0 losses, so they'll be selecting from teams with at least 1 loss.

I know that it isn't a "selection". It's really just tabulating votes and putting them through a formula. But I doubt that many people will vote 1-loss Ohio State over 1-loss Texas, 1-loss USC, 1-loss Florida, 1-loss LSU, etc. (Depending, of course, on to whom the teams lost.)

 

[NateG]

I understand and for most parts agree, but their has not been a year where these statements have been proven.

Florida will probably(only 3 loss possibilities before) play in the SEC CG against ALA, Ole Miss, or LSU. That winner is in.

The other teams- it's according to how and when they lose. There is a chance the B12 and Pac10 winners have 2 losses. So that would leave the Pac 10, B12, B10 to battle for the last spot. Not saying a good chance but a chance.

3-4 weeks will change the whole landscape. Big games in those 3-4 weeks.

 

[Steve19]

Like I said, We all tend to think this way but OSU has never gotten SNUFFED. Even the year that OSU lost late they awarded it to OSU. If Iowa wins out and scUM's only loss is to Iowa or vice versa... OSU could get alot of love late in the year. At State Penn, Iowa in the top 20, At scUM top 20 could look very good. Texas hasn't proved a whole lot either for this year. TTU isn't as good as last year and that is their key win right now. We'll see when OKLA,OK ST, and some other team's match up with em. They have a tough stretch ahead. Okla,@ Mizz, @ Ok ST, then end the year with Kan and @ A&M. We will know more in 3 weeks.

Plus the humans are only a part of the equation. But again if Ohio State wins out I bet OSU is heavily in the discussion.

If USC comes right. Otherwise, I think the computers will sink Ohio State.

 

[BB73]

1-loss teams in BCS-conferences are always in the discussion (unless it's a Big East team).

Unless it's Kansas in 2007. The only BCS teams with 1 loss before the bowls were tOSU and Kansas, and since they lost their last game to Missouri, they never got a serious look.

 

[BB73]

I understand and for most parts agree, but their has not been a year where these statements have been proven.

Florida will probably(only 3 loss possibilities before) play in the SEC CG against ALA, Ole Miss, or LSU. That winner is in.

The other teams- it's according to how and when they lose. There is a chance the B12 and Pac10 winners have 2 losses. So that would leave the Pac 10, B12, B10 to battle for the last spot. Not saying a good chance but a chance.

3-4 weeks will change the whole landscape. Big games in those 3-4 weeks.

If Georgia wins the WLOCP, loses 1 other conference game, and then wins the SECCG (head-to-head is the first divisional tiebreaker), that's a 2-loss team that wouldn't automatically get slotted into the BCS Title game.

Then if would be interesting if the normal reluctance to keep a non-conference winner out of the BCS Title game would apply to a 1-loss Florida team that didn't play in the SECCG.

 

[NateG]

If USC comes right. Otherwise, I think the computers will sink Ohio State.

Maybe the week that they lose but last year OSU lost to State Penn then they lost the week after. Ohio State dropped .02 points in the computers because of State Penn's loss. That was with 2 weeks left. If Ohio State wins out, it could give them 4-5 teams that they beat that ended in the top 25 in the comupters and maybe 1 in the top 10. (Wisky,Iowa,State Penn, and scUM, and according to how Minny/Indiana/Navy end up there could be more. The computers are notorious for liking OSU more than disliking them. Cal beating USC would hurt for the moment and help in the long run.

 

[Pryoronfire]

National Championship Hopes Still Alive!

As Top 10 teams keep going down every weak, our chances of getting into the mix of things are improving. I just heard Oklahoma is without Bradford this week, so I believe Miami will pull the upset partly because of their shiteous game with VT and they will be out to prove they are still good. Then when Sam Bradford is back, Oklahoma could beat Texas (who I think is beatable). USC could very well lose again.

What do you guys think? Do you think more teams will fall? Who do you perceive being in the mix as we get closer to Nov/Dec?

 

[OCBucksFan]

http://www.buckeyeplanet.com/forum/buckeye-football/616460-operation-chaos-mode.html

 

[NateG]

Please read the Operation:Chaos thread

 

[Steve19]

Nate, I get your point vis-a-vis USC. My point was about computer ratings overall.

Ohio State currently is ranked #6 on Sagarin's predictor but 23rd on the Sagarin ELO used in the BCS. Iowa is ranked #1 in the Sagarin ELO in large part because every team that Iowa has played has won every game they played except Iowa.

USC lost to a bad team. Navy looks like they played well above themselves against Ohio State. Toledo, I don't know.

If USC is to lose, then we hope it is against the best opponent, which looks to be Cal. So, I think we agree.

My point was that the better our OOC opponents perform, the better our computer ranking, all other things equal. Our Big Ten opponents are playing in a closed system. One wins and another loses in a zero sum game.

So, OOC opponents could have a significant effect if polls and computer scores between Ohio State and another team are close.

 

[BB73]

Nate, I get your point vis-a-vis USC. My point was about computer ratings overall.

Ohio State currently is ranked #6 on Sagarin's predictor but 23rd on the Sagarin ELO used in the BCS. Iowa is ranked #1 in the Sagarin ELO in large part because every team that Iowa has played has won every game they played except Iowa.

USC lost to a bad team. Navy looks like they played well above themselves against Ohio State. Toledo, I don't know.

If USC is to lose, then we hope it is against the best opponent, which looks to be Cal. So, I think we agree.

My point was that the better our OOC opponents perform, the better our computer ranking, all other things equal. Our Big Ten opponents are playing in a closed system. One wins and another loses in a zero sum game.

So, OOC opponents could have a significant effect if polls and computer scores between Ohio State and another team are close.

tOSU's SOS is helped by NW'ern and MSU losing Big Ten games, since they're not on the schedule this year.

 

[NateG]

I was just giving you the loss effect from previous years and the top and bottom are dropped. So if Sagarin hates us then he is dropped(like last year). I personally think a 10-2 USC is fine enough for OOC foes to keep Ohio State strong especially if Navy and Toledo can win some games. Ohio State did fine with the Coaches and Harris too last year even with being completely blown apart at USC. We also had 2 losses at that point instead of one (that most understand was at the last minute against a better team than alot of teams). The effect that a USC loss would have on Ohio State in the computers is alot smaller than the impact of USC dropping below OSU in the human polls.(2 possible points to a possible .02 of a point). I'll take that anyday. Outside of USC, Ohio State will get enough love from the 4 -5 Big10 teams with winning records to improve their comp ranks. They always seem to.

 

[WaitingforKickoff]

If Georgia wins the WLOCP, loses 1 other conference game, and then wins the SECCG (head-to-head is the first divisional tiebreaker), that's a 2-loss team that wouldn't automatically get slotted into the BCS Title game.

Then if would be interesting if the normal reluctance to keep a non-conference winner out of the BCS Title game would apply to a 1-loss Florida team that didn't play in the SECCG.

That's certainly an interesting case. However, for that to happen, three things would have to happen:

1). Beating Florida
2). Not losing more than one other SEC game in the regular season schedule
3). Winning the conference title game.

Beating both Florida and Bama in one season is really tough to do, something that they did not come close to accomplishing, even with Stafford at QB last season. Even if they sneak by UF, LSU, UT, Auburn and UK are not easy games for this team. It could happen, but I don't see it.

 

[daddyphatsacs]

Everyone is talking about the voters using their (somewhat warranted) bias against the Bucks in the polls, I tend to agree with that mostly. That being said, there is one unknown here.....Terrell Pryor. Eventually this kid is going to put together a couple of really big games, suddenly OSU's offense comes to life. When you pair a good offense with that defense of ours, well I don't think there is as good a team (FG, Punting) in the land. If Pryor gets their attention, suddenly he becomes a weekly story and so does Ohio State. Just my .02.............