Operation Chaos mode - BCS Title game contenders

[daddyphatsacs]

My two games I think could end up in an upset this weekend are Illinois over Penn St, as well as Cal over USC. Illinois is coached by Ron Zook. Zook is Zook, he loses a lot of games he should not (poor mans Pete Carroll). Eventually all that talent pulls one out, normally one big one per year. As for Penn St, well, I think they are going to have a disappointing year by their standards.

As for the Cal over USC game. Well, I think Best is the "best" (yeah, the pun was intended) back in the country and USC is a not quite there this year thus far. I'd imagine Cal will have great success running the ball. It could happen, just saying. Plus, Cal is Cal.

 

[jlb1705]

Think about this.... 12 team playoff would include Boise and TCU but would not include undefeated IOWA,scUM, Mizz, Kan, Aub, UCLA, or Wisc.

Exactly. People who talk about a playoff scoff at the BCS yet never seem to talk about how teams would be selected for a playoff.

I'm completely with Mili on this one. The idea that incremental changes are OK, and that the polls will get straightened out by the end of the season, is just BS. That's the reason that people complain about preseason polls.

If polls are very fluid, they still are accurate at the end of the year. But they're also more accurate throughout the year.

Thinking that it's OK to have Iowa behind Penn State, when Iowa's undefeated, they beat Penn State in Happy Valley, AND Penn State hasn't beaten any team worth a damn so far this year, is simply unjustifiable. It would be different if Penn State had some quality wins, but they don't.

It reminds me of the saying about broken clocks... I think it's preferable to aspire to be more like the clock that is working and properly set, and "correct" more than twice at certain intervals.

didn't Oregon curb stomp TSUN in the Pig House just two short years ago?

You mean the same TSUN team that lost to Appalachian State the week before?

 

[NateG]

My two games I think could end up in an upset this weekend are Illinois over Penn St, as well as Cal over USC. Illinois is coached by Ron Zook. Zook is Zook, he loses a lot of games he should not (poor mans Pete Carroll). Eventually all that talent pulls one out, normally one big one per year. As for Penn St, well, I think they are going to have a disappointing year by their standards.

As for the Cal over USC game. Well, I think Best is the "best" (yeah, the pun was intended) back in the country and USC is a not quite there this year thus far. I'd imagine Cal will have great success running the ball. It could happen, just saying. Plus, Cal is Cal.

For purposes of this thread we do not want Illinois to win on Sat. We need State Penn to make to our game with maybe only one more loss. That loss could only be to scUM. That game in HV could be critical to a big 3 game stretch at the end. Especially for voters. Because then we'd go into the last 2 games against teams that also beat State Penn.

 

[lvbuckeye]

You mean the same TSUN team that lost to Appalachian State the week before?

yup. the same TSUN that beat Florida in the bowl game.

 

[daddyphatsacs]

For purposes of this thread we do not want Illinois to win on Sat. We need State Penn to make to our game with maybe only one more loss. That loss could only be to scUM. That game in HV could be critical to a big 3 game stretch at the end. Especially for voters. Because then we'd go into the last 2 games against teams that also beat State Penn.

I certainly do not disagree with you on that. I just get the feeling that Illinois is going to make it very interesting this week. From what I've seen out of the Big Ten, I think Penn St. is maybe the 3rd or 4th best squad this year..........which isn't saying much.

 

[NateG]

I certainly do not disagree with you on that. I just get the feeling that Illinois is going to make it very interesting this week. From what I've seen out of the Big Ten, I think Penn St. is maybe the 3rd or 4th best squad this year..........which isn't saying much.

But I love the fact that State Penn isn't as good. I have a few friends that wanted to rub that game last year in my face so bad. It will be nice to do the same this year. I just hope that we are the ones that REALLY show how bad they are. Like 35-7 bad. ILL will either salvage a bowl bid this week or go in the toilet for the rest of the season.

 

[BB73]

Well, this week a second loss for Oklahoma is a good thing.

And UCLA lost - they weren't perceived as a real threat, but they were the only undefeated team in the Pac Ten before today.

And Houston is down 10 to UTEP early in the 4th Q.

Now that UGA has 2 losses, it's time to cheer them on. If they win out, the SEC Champ will have 2 losses.

Same for Oklahoma. If they win out, the Big 12 Champ will have 2 losses.

 

[WaitingforKickoff]

Well, this week a second loss for Oklahoma is a good thing.

And UCLA lost - they weren't perceived as a real threat, but they were the only undefeated team in the Pac Ten before today.

And Houston is down 10 to UTEP early in the 4th Q.

Now that UGA has 2 losses, it's time to cheer them on. If they win out, the SEC Champ will have 2 losses.

Thanks for the update Bill. The biggest development this week might be how well SC is playing. If they continue to play like that, we have no shot.

As of now, our top three hurdles are:

1). SC - Oregon may be the only team left on their schedule that can put up a fight. SC is known for having one letdown per season, and that has already been used on Washington.

2). UT - We need them to lose to OU in a couple of weeks and one more game in the B12. If they tack on those two losses, the B12 should be out of the hunt for the title.

3). VaTech - See them losing at least one to UNC/GaTech/NCst/BC.

 

[jwinslow]

Thanks for the update Bill. The biggest development this week might be how well SC is playing. If they continue to play like that, we have no shot.

It would be very disappointing if the SEC finally played USC again and this was the squad to do it. 04 & 05 USC would destroy this sc team, and Sanchez' 08 team would win by about 10.

 

[WaitingforKickoff]

It would be very disappointing if the SEC finally played USC again and this was the squad to do it. 04 & 05 USC would destroy this sc team, and Sanchez' 08 team would win by about 10.

I agree. The defense, the speed at WR, and now with the big back in the offense out, this SC team isn't title caliber just yet. If they were to play a health Florida squad, I don't think it would be pretty.

 

[OregonBuckeye]

Thanks for the update Bill. The biggest development this week might be how well SC is playing. If they continue to play like that, we have no shot.

As of now, our top three hurdles are:

1). SC - Oregon may be the only team left on their schedule that can put up a fight. SC is known for having one letdown per season, and that has already been used on Washington.

Stanford is another team capable of beating them. I still see one more loss for USC this year. Either Oregon or Stanford.

 

[BB73]

Houston lost to UTEP 58-41, giving up 41 points in the second half. Yikes.

Texas played UTEP last week, and after an early pick-6 from Colt McCoy, it ended up 64-7 Texas.

So Boise St. and TCU can battle it out for a BCS spot, but I don't think either one will get near the title game. Boise St's unimpressive 34-16 showing against Cal-Davis should cost them at least a couple of spots in this week's poll.

 

[NateG]

Here are the teams that OSU has no control over that could affect where the Bucks play if they win out(teams with reasonable chance of being in it at the end). And I'll put games that are possible hard games that lie ahead.

SEC- add SEC CG

Florida-@LSU, ARK, Georg, @ So. Car, FSU(pride game)
ALA- @Ole Miss, So Car, Tenn, LSU, @ Aub
LSU- Flor, Aub, @ALA, @ Ole Miss, Ark
Aub- @ Ark, @ LSU, Ole Miss, @ Georg, ALA
Ole Miss- Ala, Ark, @ Aub, Tenn, LSU
So Car-@ ALA, @ Tenn, @ Ark, Flor, Clem

Georg is the biggest friend of OSU as stated above. The west will produce one team (likely LSU or ALA) but Ole Miss could mess that up too. A Georg win out gives them right to the East crown and knocks down Flor, Aub, and GT from messing with OSU.(not likely but the best scenario)(would produce UGA vs ALA/LSU/AUB/OLE MISS)

B12- Add B12 CG

Tex-OKLA, @Mizz, @ Ok ST, Kan, @ A&M
OK ST-Mizz, Tex, Tex Tech, @ OKLA
Mizz-Neb, @ OK ST, Tex, Kan
Kan-OKLA, @ Tex Tech, Neb, @ Tex, Mizz
Neb-@ Mizz, Tex Tech, OKLA, @ Kan

OKLA is now OSU's friend as stated above. If they win out, that takes 4 possible teams(3 of note above) possibly out of the mix. Tex couldn't jump Okla to play in the B12 CG without 2 B12 losses from OKLA at that point. They would also produce 2 losses for OK ST, Bay, Tex A & M, and give the North winner a loss even if its Mizz or Kan. 2 loss champ wins B12. (OKLA vs Mizz/Kan/Neb)

ACC- Add ACC CG

VA Tech-BC, @ GT, UNC, @ Mary(?)
Miami-Clem, @ WF, @UNC, So Flor
GT-@ FSU, Va Tech, WF, Georg
BC-@ Va Tech, @ ND, UNC, @Mary(?)

Saying Miami does not jump OSU in either the Coaches or Harris (thanks to only a 1 point win), they could be a helper. With one Va Tech Loss, They won't jump them but can beat the likes of USF, leaving a 2 loss team to play to win the ACC. The only way Miami is back in the mix (IMO) is with 2 Va Tech ACC losses. Otherwise Va Tech plays for the ACC title.(Va Tech vs either BC/WF/Mary)

PAC 10

USC-@ ND, @ Oreg, Stan, UCLA, Ariz(?)
Oreg-@ UCLA, USC, @ Stan, @Ariz(?)
Stan-@ Ariz(?), Oreg, @ USC, Cal, ND

Oregon could be the Buckeyes best chance remaining to have USC lose, which WILL need to happen to unlock the Bucks from being tied right behind USC. Oregon is not likely to have enough in the schedule to catch the Bucks even with the USC win but a loss previous to USC wouldn't hurt. Stanford/Oregon/Arizona all control their own destiny in the PAC 10. We won't really know until the last 3 weeks of the season who is still in the hunt.

Big East

Cin-@ USF, WVU, ILL, @ Pitt
USF-Cin, @ Pitt, WVU, Miami

The Big East has a hurdle to jump to be involved. Cincy and USF play next week, If USF wins, Cincy could be done for good but USF has hard games remaining and may not have the horses to match those teams(@ Pitt, WVU, Miami). If Cincy wins, they have 3 tough games remaining that may not look good enough to voters to move them up(at least not over OSU).

BCS Busters and ND

Boise-@ Haw(?), Idaho, Nev(?)
TCU-@ Air Force, @ BYU, Utah
ND- USC, BC, Navy(), @ Pitt, @ Stan

The Boise situation has been hashed out enough here. You can see their tough games left, but if Oreg loses again they are out for sure. TCU can be beat... the best chance is against BYU. ND has ridden the luck train all year and will lose another game, it's bound to happen.


So with OSU winning out that leaves a possible 23 teams that could reasonably affect OSU rank in one shape or form. OSU playing a ranked and undefeated Wisc next week will help OSU not get jumped with a win. We need to likely root for IOWA and PSU to win out to us(even against scUM) because that would produce the Big Ten's "Title" game involving 2 top 10 teams and Iowa would still have a shot to move back up into the top 10 after. It also shows OSU knock the pecking order off in a row(2 top 10 teams back to back). There is obviously other games that could produce upsets but I tried to avoid placing those in for a less cloudy model of what to look forward to. And always keep in mind that OSU does not have to have all the teams in front of them lose to get in. They need to get to 2 in the BCS formula. I think either a Flor or Tex loss is needed along with another USC and Va Tech loss. Other teams are likely to be taken out by natural play outs.

 

[NateG]

To piggyback......


BIG GAMES TO WATCH THIS WEEK AND WHO TO ROOT FOR.

Top 25

Thurs
Neb at Mizz - Neb

Sat
BC at Va Tech - BC
Eas Ill at PSU- PSU
Aub at Ark - Ark
OK ST at A&M - A&M
Iowa ST at Kan - Iowa ST
ALA at Ole Miss - Ole Miss
Bay at OKLA - OKLA
Wisky at OSU - OSU
Oreg at UCLA - UCLA
Flor A&M at Miami - Flor A&M
Stanford at Oreg ST - Oreg ST
Col at Tex - Col
TCU at Air Force - AF
Flor at LSU - LSU
GT at FSU - FSU
scUM at IOWA - IOWA
BYU at UNLV - UNLV

Non Top 25 games that could produce helpers for OSU

Georg at Tenn - GeorgWVU at Syr - Syr
Ken at So Car - Ken
Uconn at Pitt - Uconn
Tex So at Rutgers - Tex So
Ariz at Wash - Wash

SOS helpers

MSU at ILL - ILL
NAVY at RICE - NAVY
Ind at Virg - Ind
W. Mich at Tol - Tol
Utah ST at NMSU - NMSU

Obviously any Big Ten team playing NU or MSU we are rooting for them for the rest of the year.

 

[NateG]

Coaches Poll week 6

1Florida (57) 4-0 1473
2Texas (1) 4-0 1408
3Alabama (1) 5-0 1366
4LSU 5-0 1273
5Virginia Tech 4-1 1141
6Boise State 5-0 1133
7USC 4-1 1123
8Ohio State 4-1 1072
9TCU 4-0 965
10Cincinnati 5-0 937
11Miami (FL) 3-1 750
12Penn State 4-1 713
13Oklahoma State 3-1 702
14Iowa 5-0 655
15Kansas 4-0 616
16Mississippi 3-1 460
17Oregon 4-1 433
18Missouri 4-0 386
19Auburn 5-0 369
20Brigham Young 4-1 353
21Oklahoma 2-2 346
22Nebraska 3-1 329
23Georgia Tech 4-1 278
24South Florida 5-0 220
25Wisconsin 5-0 156

• Dropped from rankings: Georgia 14, Houston 15, California 19, Michigan 20

• Others receiving votes: Georgia 148, South Carolina 128, Notre Dame 57, Houston 52, Stanford 43, Michigan 33, Utah 31, Boston College 15, Pittsburgh 6, Arizona 2, Arkansas 1, West Virginia 1, CENTRL MICHIGAN 1,