Operation Chaos mode - BCS Title game contenders

[WaitingforKickoff]

I know it's probably foolish to make any predictions with how this year is going, but here's how I see it playing out. If this plays out, we could be looking at 'Bama and Boise in the BCSNCG. Unless, somehow the tOSU really does develop like they did in '05 and starts running away with games. Then, would it be enough to leap Boise State? Obviously, the chances of the above working out are probably minimal, but it could make for a very interesting last month of the season...

Damn formatting, I guess it's still legible...

I know it looks unlikely right now, but if UM and Cal both win this weekend, inevitable might be the word that we are looking at for OSU's chances at a spot in the title game. I don't care what the talking heads on espn are saying right now, but when it comes to actual game time decision, how many people with anything riding on the ratings of the game or the popularity of the sport would actually put BS(U) ahead of The OSU in the title game? Not that many, and if they do, they would be really crazy. If Boise happens to be the team standing in our way, I can't help but seeing massive numbers of coaches and Harris voters switching their votes to OSU after capping off an impressive victory over a top 20 Michigan team at Ann Arbor. Who do the Broncos play on that Friday, yes, Friday? Nevada, and then followed two weeks later by New Mexico State.

Outside of the Red-river shoot out, we still need at least two losses between UT and OU. And the quickest way to those two losses is by having OU beating UT in the h2h, and both losing one more game on their own. That's why I'm rooting hard for Miami. If the Canes pull this off, and if OU beats UT later in Norman, all we need from the B12 is for UT to lose one more game.

And for all the voters falling in love with VaTech, they are averaging 350 yds on offense and giving up 325 on defense. That's bordering .500, and had they not caught a break with the long pass inside two minutes in the game vs. Neb, they would be batting .500 right now. I'm expecting them to drop at sometimes, although the sooner the better.

 

[BB73]

Iowa may indeed be better than Penn State. If they are, and the go undefeated, eventually they will be moved over other teams. If, on the other hand, they lose a couple of games, I'll expect the polls to show that as well. I am advocating incremental changes. Three weeks from now, if Iowa and PSU continue winning, I'll expect Iowa to jump PSU.

I'm completely with Mili on this one. The idea that incremental changes are OK, and that the polls will get straightened out by the end of the season, is just BS. That's the reason that people complain about preseason polls.

If polls are very fluid, they still are accurate at the end of the year. But they're also more accurate throughout the year.

Thinking that it's OK to have Iowa behind Penn State, when Iowa's undefeated, they beat Penn State in Happy Valley, AND Penn State hasn't beaten any team worth a damn so far this year, is simply unjustifiable. It would be different if Penn State had some quality wins, but they don't.

 

[NateG]

Per the polls and if the 2 games you are hoping for happen...UM over Okla and Cal over USC.... I don't think that Ohio State needs 2 losses from Texas. Okla would have 2 losses and be at 20 ish when they play Tex. Flor plays LSU the week before, LSU plays Georg this week, Va Tech plays GT the same week as OKLA/Tex. If GT beats Va tech...LSU's situ would help OSU regardless of how it works, a Tex loss after OKLA losing to Miami would drop them below OSU. Iowa could win out to us... then OSU would have a ranked win against state Penn, against Highly ranked IOWA, then ranked scUM. That Could be all that's needed.



This just in USC loses Stafon Johnson to freak Weight lifting injury...

article link- USC Trojans' Stafon Johnson has surgery after weights mishap - ESPN

 

[daddyphatsacs]

While we are on the Boise St. topic, let's take a look at their bowl history over the past decade. They have won one bowl game since 2003; that being the famed game against Oklahoma. Yeah, beating Oregon was a nice win, but what else will they do this season? How does this bowl history constitute legitimacy?

1999 Crucial.com Humanitarian Bowl Boise State 34 Louisville 31

2000 Crucial.com Humanitarian Bowl Boise State 38 UTEP 23

2002 Crucial.com Humanitarian Bowl Boise State 34 Iowa St 16

2003 PlainsCapital Fort Worth Bowl Boise State 34 TCU 31

2004 AutoZone Liberty Bowl Louisville 44 Boise State 40

2005 MPC Computers Bowl Boston College 27 Boise State 21

2007 Tostitos Fiesta Bowl Boise State 43 Oklahoma 42

2007 Sheraton Hawaii Bowl East Carolina 41 Boise State 38

2008 Poinsettia Bowl TCU 17 Boise State 16

 

[NFBuck]

While we are on the Boise St. topic, let's take a look at their bowl history over the past decade. They have won one bowl game since 2003; that being the famed game against Oklahoma. How does this bowl history constitute legitimacy?

1999 Crucial.com Humanitarian Bowl Boise State 34 Louisville 31

2000 Crucial.com Humanitarian Bowl Boise State 38 UTEP 23

2002 Crucial.com Humanitarian Bowl Boise State 34 Iowa St 16

2003 PlainsCapital Fort Worth Bowl Boise State 34 TCU 31

2004 AutoZone Liberty Bowl Louisville 44 Boise State 40

2005 MPC Computers Bowl Boston College 27 Boise State 21

2007 Tostitos Fiesta Bowl Boise State 43 Oklahoma 42

2007 Sheraton Hawaii Bowl East Carolina 41 Boise State 38

2008 Poinsettia Bowl TCU 17 Boise State 16

It doesn't. They're feeding off their win against "Big Game" () Bob. Sadly, I think it's gonna take them getting trounced in a BCS game before they go away.

 

[daddyphatsacs]

It doesn't. They're feeding off their win against "Big Game" () Bob. Sadly, I think it's gonna take them getting trounced in a BCS game before they go away.

Yep. When Oregon (in smurfland) is your biggest game of the year, it's not all that hard to be unbeaten at years end if you have a decent team.

 

[NateG]

I know most think that ALA is going to win out to the SEC CG but does anyone know how big the injury to Hightower ILB is for their team?


Alabama Crimson Tide linebacker Dont'a Hightower to miss rest of season - ESPN

 

[gracelhink]

I know most think that ALA is going to win out to the SEC CG but does anyone know how big the injury to Hightower ILB is for their team?

Saban basically said he is irreplacable.
Alabama exploring how to fill Hightower's role | Sports from the Press-Register - al.com - al.com

"I don't know that you can replace a guy that does all the things that he did," Saban said. "I think we need different roles created by different people to do different things to make up for some of the things Dont'a did." . . .

Former Andalusia standout and true freshman Nico Johnson, sophomore Chris Jordan (McClain's backup) and Upshaw are all possible candidates for more playing time. The top option -- and Hightower's initial backup on the depth chart -- was officially removed from consideration Monday when Saban confirmed that sophomore Jerrell Harris would be suspended through next week's Ole Miss game for NCAA eligibility issues.

 

[NateG]

Alot of these aren't fully vested until about midway thru the year due to OOC schedules(most computer ranks place SOS as a factor) but here are where you can see what's going on with them at this point. Boise is getting love right now because of their stronger than most OOC schedule. Also Ohio State at this point is getting punished mainly because of the loss. With a USC win OSU would be higher already. So keep in mind that these will change dramatically within the next 3 weeks (why they don't release BCS ranks til week 8) but wanted folks to be able to check them out.

Sagarin- USATODAY.com
Anderson & Hester- AndersonSports: The Jeff Anderson & Chris Hester College Football Computer Rankings - Part of the BCS Rankings
Billingsley- Home
Colley Matrix- Colley's Bias Free Matrix Rankings
Massey- Massey Ratings
Wolfe- 2009 College Football

Also a couple haven't created theirs yet. And also remember top score and bottom score get dropped from BCS consideration... for example...

(hypothetical) OSU- 8, 9, 15, 3, 4, 10...... the 15 and 3 would get dropped... leaving 8,9,4,10.... add and divide by four to give the computer average= 7.75

The scale for the computers goes 25 points for 1st or 1 point for 25th and so on

 

[NateG]

Ozone.net did a BCS estimate after 4 games.....

The-Ozone, Ohio State Football, Wrestling, Softball, Basketball, Hockey, Baseball and More



and then proceeded to rant about it...lol

The-Ozone, Ohio State Football, Wrestling, Softball, Basketball, Hockey, Baseball and More

 

[lvbuckeye]

Agreed. I am tired of the Boise chat. They pull one BCS game out of their ass with a trick play and now they are legit? I doubt it. They are the Gonzaga of college football.

all right. is this revisionist history or what? Boise DOMINATED that game for the first 55 minutes. all trick plays aside, Oklahoma was down double digits for the vast majority of the game.

 

[NateG]

But then you need to look at Okla and the history of their recent bowl games........TERRIBLE!!! Boise isn't a great team because of one game and I believe that is the growing rumbles you have heard. To be honest, the Oregon win was an okay win, but Oregon went into that game to knock Boise players out not to win the game and Boise went in to win the game. If Oregon would have focused correctly... Ohio State would have alot harder team to try to jump...OREGON.

 

[NFBuck]

Boise had the most talent they've EVER had in that game as well. The QB (Jared Zabranski?) and RB Ian Johnson are probably their two best offensive players of all time.

 

[Steve19]

all right. is this revisionist history or what? Boise DOMINATED that game for the first 55 minutes. all trick plays aside, Oklahoma was down double digits for the vast majority of the game.

I don't remember it that way, lv. Oklahoma was down double digits for less than a full quarter. They tied it with less than 2 minutes left and then got that interception for a touchdown to take the lead with a minute left. That's when BS went something like 80 yards in less than a minute to force the OT.

Oklahoma actually had nearly twice as many first downs and something like 100 more yards than BS but had four or five turnovers at critical times. So, the press said dominate, but really Oklahoma was sloppy and not up for the game at all. They reminded me of Cooper's last bowl game.

 

[NateG]

Here's the game log

Boise State Broncos vs. Oklahoma Sooners Box Score, January 1 2007 - NCAA College Football - ESPN

Boise caught OKLA off guard... then OKLA played even thru the middle of the 3rd quarter... depth started to kick in... tied on a freak hook and ladder on 4 and 18... lost to a trick pass/statue of liberty in OT.