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Operation Chaos mode - BCS Title game contenders

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Mandel Mailbag
Stewart: Considering that Florida and Alabama are now Nos. 1 and 2 in the polls, is it possible that the loser of the SEC championship game between those two would get a rematch in the BCS title game if the teams below them lose?
-- Rich, Nashville
I've been getting that question a lot this week and the answer is no, I cannot see it happening. We went through this before in 2006 with Ohio State and Michigan, when the voters put the kibosh on their potential rematch by moving Florida ahead of the Wolverines in the final polls. Obviously, it's a good thing they did. Given their opportunity, the Gators showed that the Buckeyes weren't the end-all, be-all team many of us made them out to be.
The voters would presumably do the same thing if faced with the aforementioned SEC scenario. Even if the Gators and Tide entered that game as the only undefeated teams in the country, even if they staged a triple-overtime thriller, who are the voters to assume they're still the top two teams in the country? They'd want to give someone else a crack at the winner to be certain.
However, there is one scenario where things could get messy. What if Alabama loses the game, and what if the team right behind the Crimson Tide is current No. 4 Virginia Tech -- whom the Tide previously beat? And what if the Hokies are the only other one-loss team out there? Would they still get the nod, or would Alabama stay above them? Every year presents a new headache-inducing BCS riddle. That one sounds about perfect.
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I believe this is the 2nd national writer to say its unlikely that the SEC rematches in the title game. I don't remember the first. I'll maintain that the polls will move a team up past a loser Alabama as long as its not Va Tech and there is another 1 loss BCS team including Ohio State.
 
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NateG;1566555; said:
The last 3 big games people were saying we would get blown out. Some fans I know were even considering not watching the Texas or USC games because they felt that we had no shot. "OH NO, State Penn's HD offense is going to thrash us.... Texas should be in the Title game.....USC won by 30 last year....BLAH BLAH BLAH"

This group of guys doesn't give 2 craps about any of that and OSU was for all intents and purposes one play away from winning all 3 of those games. I believe in my team. That's why I spend money to go to games. That's why I buy clothing to show my pride. That's why I enjoy haters saying we don't stand a chance. That's why I put so much time into this thread. Because we can win. And IMHO not one team I have watched this year has looked UNBEATABLE. Not like Miami in 02. I had to listen to that for a month and a half. I get sick of a defeatist mentality. So who would be good to play Oregon State, Arizona, UCLA. Give me a break. I want to root for the best. And to be the best you have to beat the best. Give me the F-IN SEC. If you don't want OSU in a Title game please don't post in this thread. Because I know that there are fans here with guts. And I am one of them. Show some pride in your Bucks!!!!


O to the F-IN H!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Church.

Every team in the top 15 has obvious flaws. I'll take a tOSU bowl match up with any of them.
 
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As a point of reference, here's how the AP Poll looked at approximately the same point in the 2002 season:

10/13/2002 AP Poll

# Team...........Record...Pts (1st)
1. Miami...........6-0...1841 (65)
2. Oklahoma........6-0...1776 (9)
3. Virginia Tech...6-0...1675
4. Ohio State......7-0...1608
5. Georgia.........6-0...1555
6. Oregon..........6-0...1463
7. Notre Dame......6-0...1403



On October 19th, Oregon lost to Arizona State, 42-45, and Ducks dropped to #14 in the next poll. After their 6-0 start, Oregon would go on to lose six of its last seven games and finish unranked. Miami had a bye week, while the other top teams won their games: Oklahoma beat #9 Iowa State[sup]1[/sup], 49-3; Virginia Tech beat Rutgers, 35-14; Ohio State beat Wisconsin, 19-14; Georgia beat Vanderbilt, 48-17; and Notre Dame beat Air Force, 21-14.

10/20/2002 AP Poll

# Team...........Record...Pts (1st)
1. Miami...........6-0...1837 (61)
2. Oklahoma........7-0...1787 (13)
3. Virginia Tech...7-0...1675
4. Ohio State......8-0...1604
5. Georgia.........7-0...1584
6. Notre Dame......7-0...1479



After the October 26th games, there was a fairly large shake-up in the AP poll. Miami held on to the top spot by beating West Virginia, 40-23; Oklahoma had a bye week and remained in second place; and Virginia Tech stayed in third place despite an uninspiring performance against unranked Temple which resulted in a 20-10 victory for the Hokies. Ohio State was the big loser that week, as the Buckeyes dropped from fourth place to sixth place after beating #18 Penn State, 13-7, without the benefit of an offensive touchdown. Notre Dame (:roll2:) leap-frogged both Ohio State and Georgia (and even "earned" a #1 vote) after knocking off #11 Florida State on the road, 34-24. Georgia maintained the #5 ranking with a 52-24 win over Kentucky, and the Buckeyes dropped all the way to #6.

10/27/2002 AP Poll

# Team...........Record...Pts (1st)
1. Miami...........7-0...1832 (59)
2. Oklahoma........7-0...1788 (14)
3. Virginia Tech...8-0...1611
4. Notre Dame......8-0...1597
5. Georgia.........8-0...1582
6. Ohio State......9-0...1575



Another big shake-up occurred the following week, this time to the benefit of Ohio State. Although Miami and Oklahoma both won, beating Rutgers (42-17) and #13 Colorado (27-11) respectively, the other three teams ahead of the Buckeyes in the AP poll each suffered major upsets against unranked teams: Virginia Tech fell to Pitt, 21-28; Georgia lost to Florida, 13-20; and Notre Dame was defeated by Boston College, 7-14. Meanwhile, Ohio State curb-stomped Minnesota, 34-3, to move into the #3 slot.

11/03/2002 AP Poll

# Team...........Record...Pts (1st)
1. Oklahoma........8-0...1818 (42)
2. Miami...........8-0...1804 (32)
3. Ohio State......10-0...1705



Although the 2002 Miami Hurricanes were widely portrayed as being invincible, it is interesting to note that in early November they were actually in second place in the AP poll behind Oklahoma, and in third place in the BCS behind both Oklahoma and Ohio State. That situation would soon change as the Sooners would unexpectedly drop a game against Texas A+M, 26-30; entering the game, the Aggies were just 5-4 on the season, and they would lose their last two contests to finish at 6-6 and out of the bowl picture. Miami re-established its place at the top of the poll with a 26-3 thrashing of Tennessee, and Ohio State jumped into the second spot with a "Holy Buckeye!" win against Purdue. Washington State, whose lone loss to that date was to Ohio State, moved up to #3, while Oklahoma slid to fourth place.

11/10/2002 AP Poll

# Team..............Record...Pts (1st)
1. Miami..............9-0...1850 (74)
2. Ohio State........11-0...1771
3. Washington State...9-1...1592
4. Oklahoma...........8-1...1590



Miami and Ohio State would win out from there, and they entered the Fiesta Bowl (BCS championship game) as the top two teams in the country. And we all know what happened that night.... :biggrin:

Final 2002 AP Poll

# Team..............Record...Pts (1st)
1. Ohio State........14-0...1775 (71)
2. Miami.............12-1...1693
3. Georgia...........13-1...1598
4. Southern Cal......11-2...1590

_______________________
[sup]1[/sup] Iowa State's #9 ranking was the highest in school history, and marks the only time that the Cyclones have ever been ranked in the AP's top ten. After their one-week brush with greatness, the Cyclones dropped to #17 in the October 20th poll following the pounding that they received at the hands of the Sooners. Like Oregon, Iowa State would lose six of its last seven games and finish unranked in the final AP poll.
 
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Even though there are no sure things in life and you should never count the eggs before they hatch, you can pretty much scratch BSU off the list of title contenders. Only one opponent left on their schedule currently has a winning record. The computers will eat them alive.
 
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Tresselbeliever;1567402; said:
Even though there are no sure things in life and you should never count the eggs before they hatch, you can pretty much scratch BSU off the list of title contenders. Only one opponent left on their schedule currently has a winning record. The computers will eat them alive.
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word
 
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Tresselbeliever;1567402; said:
Even though there are no sure things in life and you should never count the eggs before they hatch, you can pretty much scratch BSU off the list of title contenders. Only one opponent left on their schedule currently has a winning record. The computers will eat them alive.
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They shit their bed for the human voters last night, but the computer aspect has been lurking for weeks. From Sept 29 in this thread:

BB73;1554219; said:
Boise State will slowly sink in the computers over the rest of the season, since the remainder of their schedule is so weak.

Thus, the BCS computers that so many folks constantly bitch about would prevent Boise State from playing in the BCS Title game, even if they rise to number 2 in the human polls. But I think common sense will prevent the human polls from letting them rise that high.
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Another way of looking at what chaos is necessary is to rank the scenarios in which teams have a chance to reach #1 or #2 in the final BCS standings. In order for tOSU to reach #2 in the BCS pecking order, all but 1 of the 9 scenarios outside of tOSU's control need to be eliminated.

Estimated Final BCS Pecking Order
01. Undefeated SEC Champ (Bama-Fla)
02. Undefeated Texas
03. [strike]Undefeated Iowa [/strike] (under tOSU's control to prevent this)
04. Undefeated Kansas (mutually exclusive with #2)
05. 1-loss Bama-Fla SEC Champ
06. Undefeated Cincy [strike]USF winner[/strike]
07. 1-loss VT ACC Champ
08. 1-loss USC
09. 1-loss Texas-Nebraska Big 12 Champ
10. 1-loss LSU-S.Car-Aub SEC Champ
11. 1-loss tOSU
12. 1-loss non-SEC Champ Bama-Fla
13. 1-loss non-Big 12 Champ Texas
14. Undefeated TCU
15. 1-loss Miami-GaTech ACC Champ (they each lost by 16-17 points)
16. 1-loss Kansas-Mizzou-Okla St Big 12 Champ
17. Undefeated Boise St
18. 1-loss Oregon
19. 2-loss Bama-Fla SEC Champ
20. 2-loss Okla Big 12 Champ
21. 1-loss Big East Champ (Cincy-USF-Pitt-WV)
22. 1-loss Ntre Ame (just for Dr. Lou)

In summary, I think the only teams that could jump a 1-loss tOSU would be:

Undefeated Kansas, undefeated Cincy/USF winner, a Big 12 Champ Nebraska that wins out, and a 1-loss SEC Champ LSU-S.Car-Auburn that wins out.

I will copy this post once early each week, and update it with any possibilities that are eliminated, and any perceived changes in the final BCS pecking order.
 
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BB73;1567532; said:
all but 1 of the 9 scenarios outside of tOSU's control need to be eliminated.

Estimated Final BCS Pecking Order
01. Undefeated SEC Champ (Bama-Fla)
02. Undefeated Texas
03. [strike]Undefeated Iowa [/strike] (under tOSU's control to prevent this)
04. Undefeated Kansas (mutually exclusive with #2)
05. 1-loss Bama-Fla SEC Champ
06. Undefeated Cincy/USF winner
07. 1-loss VT ACC Champ
08. 1-loss USC
09. 1-loss Texas-Nebraska Big 12 Champ
10. 1-loss LSU-S.Car-Aub SEC Champ
11. 1-loss tOSU
12. 1-loss non-SEC Champ Bama-Fla
13. 1-loss non-Big 12 Champ Texas
14. Undefeated TCU
15. 1-loss Miami-GaTech ACC Champ (they each lost by 16-17 points)
16. 1-loss Kansas-Mizzou-Okla St Big 12 Champ
17. Undefeated Boise St
18. 1-loss Oregon
19. 2-loss Bama-Fla SEC Champ
20. 2-loss Okla Big 12 Champ
21. 1-loss Big East Champ (Cincy-USF-Pitt-WV)
22. 1-loss Ntre Ame (just for Dr. Lou)
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1/5/and 10 cannot all happen so 2 down for sure
2/4 will play each as noted and so 1 gone for sure but if Neb loses before B12 title it's 2 gone

moves it to a 1 of 6/5 proposition. most of those turn into needing teams to lose once more. Obviously USC/Va Tech/ USF-Cincy winner need to lose outside of the current guarantees. The SEC, Texas/Neb, USF/CINCY situ's cause the most problems because of multiple options for one of the teams to gt in. Every other situ is a one more and done scenario. We really need OKLA to help. the more I think about it, if Texas wins they will feel good about making the B12 title(where even with a loss after OKLA would have them ahead of us) Only OK ST would have a real shot at making the South side of the Title. This week will tell us alot about what we need to happen going forward. Could move it to a 1 of 3 or 4 situ.
 
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daddyphatsacs;1570485; said:
Well, since we are out of the title picture, let's focus on an outright Big Ten title and what is needed to obtain it. We lost again, it sucks horribly, time to move on and focus on next week and the rest of the season.


:oh::io:
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Aww c'mon guys, it was fun while it lasted. It's no big deal...I was pissed and a little upset after the game, but it's ok we still control our own destiny in the Big Ten, so let's look forward to that.

GO BUCKS! :oh:
 
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