sepia5;1640220; said:
One thing I've never understood is how some can argue that we should trust the staff's judgment, and then also argue that it doesn't matter when we miss out on big time recruits that the staff thought highly enough of to offer early on in the process. Those two things just don't mesh.
Those two things aren't supposed to mesh. The staff doesn't want to miss on big time recruits any more than we do - they know that they need talent in order to do well on the field. When some of us talk about trusting the staff's judgment, it is generally in reference to NOT offering a kid (Schofner, Donnal, Prater from this class).
sepia5;1640220; said:
The staff initially offered those big name recruits--before going to plan B guys that they also apparently think highly of--because they thought the big name guys were better prospects. So while the plan B guys like Cam Heyward may ultimately turn out to be better than the guys initially offered by the staff (like Ben Martin), generally speaking the staff obviously thought the players they offered first were the better prospects.
Generally true, although with the specific example of Heyward and Martin, offering Martin first might have had more to do with the fact that, as an Ohio player, he was a more well-known commodity than Heyward, as well as the fact that Martin was for some time thought to be an Ohio State lean. Clearly, both were very highly rated prospects nationally.
The "Plan B" prospects are guys like Donald Washington, Brian Robiskie, Chimdi Chekwa, Orhian Johnson, Kenny Guiton, etc. who have no national buzz but who get late offers from Ohio State (and most schools sign some Plan B guys). The Plan B prospects are clearly a step down from the Plan A guys, but they are still good enough to play at Ohio State in the staff's opinion. This staff will not offer guys just to fill out their roster.
sepia5;1640220; said:
These are players that the staff thinks highly enough of to make an effort with regardless of how likely they are to bring them in by national letter of intent day. Floyd was one of those guys. Henderson is one of those guys. Joyner was one of those guys. It's true that the recruits we go to now that Joyner and Floyd have declared elsewhere may turn out to be better collegiate players than those two. But, IMO, it's not true that the staff thinks this is likely. Otherwise, the plan B guys would have been plan A guys.
I basically agree with this. However, the staff also knows that they are not going to sign every Plan A guy on their list, and they realize that they will have to resort to some Plan B guys in the end (even in 2008 they lost out on Josh Jenkins and made Plan B offers to Jermil Martin and Orhian Johnson). The success rate for Plan A guys is about 75% for Ohio kids, and (I would guess) about 25% for out-of-state prospects. This year, ironically, Ohio State is doing relatively poorly with Ohio kids (landed Turner, Norwell, and Moore, lost Ware, Anderson, Hendrix, and Welch, with Bryant, Hicks, and James being undecided) ... but has had a pretty good hit ratio with the top national kids that they have gone hard after (landed Smith, Brown, and Louis, lost Joyner, Floyd, and Shaw, with Henderson still being undecided).