Time to bump this thread as the CFP rankings make their debut on Tuesday.
Things are starting to get a little clearer.
Notre Dame - lost at Miami and hosting aTm early, only good win is USC, host Navy and play at Pitt. If they win out, could be in a beauty contest against a 2-loss SEC team.
Group of 5 (1 and only 1 spot): MAC and Conference USA have no 1-loss teams and are virtually eliminated.
- AAC - Navy, North Texas and Memphis all have 1 conference loss. Navy plays at ND and at Memphis. Expect North Texas and Memphis to play in the CCG and the winner should get the CFB bid if they still only have 1 loss
- San Diego St is the only 1-loss team, They host Boise, play at New Mexico, plus a CCG. They need to win out.
- Sun Belt - James Madison is the only 1-loss team. They need to win out and be the only 1-loss team in the Group-of-5.
ACC: Virginia has an official non-conference loss (yes, I know) to NC State, and has a good chance to make the CCG at 11-1
Ga Tech (1 conf loss) hosts Pitt and UGA
Louisville (1 conf loss to Va) beat Miami and Pitt, has to play at SMU
Pitt (1 conf loss to L’ville, 1 to WVU) plays at GT, hosts ND and Miami
Duke and SMU both have 1 conference loss and 3 overall losses.
Unless they get two 11-1 teams into the CCG, I don‘t see them getting 2 teams unless GT beats UGA.
BIG XII: BYU is undefeated and plays at Texas Tech this week, and at Cincy
Texas Tech has a loss to Arizona St, a win at Utah and hosts BYU
Cincy (1 conf loss at Utah, loss to Nebraska) hosts BYU with a chance to make the CCG
All others have 2 or more conference losses. I think their best shot at 2 teams is if TTech and BYU split their scheduled game and a CCG matchup.
B1G: tOSU just needs to avoid a total collapse to get in. Winning out gets the #1 seed.
Indiana’s 3 remaining teams are a combined 0-16 in conference games. They will be in the too-2 when they play in the CCG.
Oregon (home loss to Indy) plays at Iowa, hosts Minny and USC and finishes at Washington. They can only afford 1 more loss.
USC, Iowa, and TTUN all have 1 conference loss and 2 total losses, and need to win out to be considered for the CFP.
Washington lost to tOSU and at TTUN, but if they win out the final game against Oregon could get them into the CFP.
SEC: aTm is the only unbeaten, they beat ND early, and they play at Mizzou and at Texas.
Bama’s loss is to 4-4 FSU, they win at UGA and Mizzou, beat Vandy and Tenn, still to host LSU and Oklahoma. Should be in the CCG and the CFP.
Ole Miss lost at UGA and won at Oklahoma. Should win out, hosting Florida and going to Miss St, Would finish 11-1 and would probably miss the CCG but easily make the CFP.
UGA lost to Bama and won at Tenn and at home against Ole Miss. Still host Texas and play at Ga Tech. Will probably miss the CCG but at 10-2 would likely make the CFP.
Texas lost at tOSU and at Florida. Need to win out with at UGA and hosting aTm, which would likely put them into CCG. A third loss in the CCG would likely not knock them out of the CFP.
Oklahoma lost vs Texas and at Ole Miss. Need to win at Bama and then against Mizzou and LSU to finish 10-2.
Vandy beat Mizzou, lost at Texas and at Bama. If they win out including at Tennessee, they’d be the least impressive 10-2 SEC team.
Mizzou lost to Bama and at Vandy, don’t have an impressive win yet, but play at Oklahoma and host aTm and could get considered by winning out.
12 spots:
Guaranteed - Group of 5 highest ranked, ACC Champ, BiG XII Champ
Highly likely: tOSU, Indiana, aTm, Bama
Probable: Oregon, Ole Miss, Notre Dame
Last 2 spots: Lots of possibilities, with Georgia being the most likely, along with a team getting its second loss in a CCG in the ACC or Big XII
