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You’re Nuts: Which Oregon weapon does Ohio State’s defense need to worry most about?
Matt Tamanini via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


Photo by Steve Dykes/Getty Images

Your (almost) daily dose of good-natured, Ohio State banter.

Everybody knows that one of the best parts of being a sports fan is debating and dissecting the most (and least) important questions in the sporting world with your friends. So, we’re bringing that to the pages of LGHL with our favorite head-to-head column: You’re Nuts.

In You’re Nuts, two LGHL staff members will take differing sides of one question and argue their opinions passionately. Then, in the end, it’s up to you to determine who’s right and who’s nuts.

Today’s Question: Which Oregon weapon does Ohio State’s defense need to worry most about?​

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Jami’s Take: Jordan James, Running Back​

When Ohio State heads to Oregon this week, they’ll face an arsenal of weapons in Ducks uniforms not unlike those in Scarlet and Gray. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel is very much still a Heisman contender, and with receivers Tez Johnson, Traeshon Holden, and Evan Stewart, plus tight end Terrance Ferguson, he’s got a plethora of options on every play.

But at present, the Duck I’m most concerned about is junior running back Jordan James, who had a lights-out performance last week against Michigan State.

James has been an extremely effective runner this season, boasting more than 100 rushing yards in three contests (including against No. 17 Boise State), five rushing touchdowns in as many games, and most recently putting up a season-high 166 yards (with a long run of 41 yards) and a touchdown on 24 carries against Michigan State.

James is a dynamic rusher, and with an average of 6.3 yards per carry, he’s among the top 10 running backs in the Big Ten so far this season. Now, Ohio State’s defense will pose a bigger challenge to him than he’s seen in the past, but the same can be said of Oregon’s offense as a whole for the Buckeye defense, so it’s a good proving ground for both sides.

The defense did face a running back with even more success than James in Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson last week (who they held to just 86 yards in his first sub-100-yard game all season), but the difference is, the Buckeyes didn’t have to worry too much about other threats. The main focus was shutting down Johnson, and it becomes a much easier task when you can home in on one individual versus having to adapt to a multitude of offensive options.

The latter is what the Buckeyes will face against Oregon, given Gabriel’s ability and the arsenal he has at his disposal. Now, the Ducks have fewer options on the ground than they do in the air, but the Buckeyes will have to be careful not to sleep on the running back as they try to prevent long pass plays.

Additionally, the Buckeyes have proven just as successful at pass coverage as they did with stopping Johnson last weekend on the ground, doing a nice job of keeping pressure on the quarterback. The Ducks have an exceptional pass game, with Gabriel netting 1,449 yards and 11 touchdowns through the first five games, with a 77.8 percent completion average.

Still, their offensive line has struggled (in both pass and run protection) this season, giving up seven sacks and opening the door for Ohio State’s front seven to do even more damage. With Tyleik Williams back from his injury and the defensive line logging three sacks against Iowa (led by Jack Sawyer with three tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, and 1.5 sacks, including a strip sack), this could be bad news for the Ducks.

Gabriel, despite being one of the top quarterbacks in college football, is not immune to errors under pressure, having thrown two interceptions just last week against a far-inferior Michigan State team. The Silver Bullets have proven capable of forcing turnovers, and unless Oregon’s offensive line plays the game of their lives, we could see that continue.

James, however, has no turnovers this season and seems to have hit his stride last weekend, creating momentum entering this marquee matchup.

Let me be clear—I trust this Buckeye defense overall, even against as many threats as Oregon has offensively. This is, after all, still a national championship-caliber defense ranked in the top five in the country by nearly every defensive metric around.

They have the added advantage of practicing against the Buckeyes, who arguably have the most stacked offense in college football. I’ve said a few times this week—you want to learn to stop a run play? Square off with TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins in practice. You need to work on pass coverage? Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith are the receivers you want to practice on.

Still, they haven’t been tested in a real game situation so far this season, so it’s hard to know what the ceiling is. I don’t think they’ll have a problem keeping the pressure on Gabriel given Oregon’s offensive line struggles, so as long as the secondary can take away the option for long pass plays, look to Oregon to try to turn up its rushing game.

When they do, it’s James that the OSU defense will need to be ready to handle.

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Matt’s Take: Dillon Gabriel, Quarterback​

I appreciate what Jami said about James, but when it comes down to it, Oregon is a passing team and if you are going to slow down this offense, you have to do so by making life uncomfortable for quarterback Dillon Gabriel. Oregon averages 294.2 yards through the air per game — which is good for 19th nationally — while only putting up 164.4 yards on the ground, which has them down at 67th.

Gabriel makes his living in the short-passing game. Nearly 74% of his passes are thrown nine yards or shorter with 28% coming behind the line of scrimmage; nearly 20% of every pass he has thrown this season has been a screen. The UCF and Oklahoma transfer has only thrown 43 of his 163 pass attempts (26.4%) at least 10 yards, completing just 24 of them (55.8%). For context, Will Howard has thrown 44 of his 125 attempts (35.2%) 10 yards or more, and he has completed 63.6% of them (28).

Many Buckeye fans have been underwhelmed by Howard’s downfield-throwing ability, but based on the numbers, he is significantly more adept deep than Gabriel is. But that is by design. Oregon’s offense ran similarly last year when Heisman finalist Bo Nix was running the show. However, I don’t think that Gabriel is nearly as good as Nix.

So, the Oregon objective is to get the ball out of his hand quickly, neutralizing their opponents’ pass-rush. Gabriel has been excellent at doing that this season. He leads the country with a 77.8% completion percentage, so if OSU wants to cause problems for the QB, it would behoove them to get their hands up into passing lanes and be prepared to cover the flat.

I know the Buckeyes aren’t facing Penn State just yet, but this feels like a J.T. Tuimoloau game. If he and Jack Sawyer can be disruptive early — not just in the game, but on passing plays as well — that should give guys like Jordan Hancock and Sonny Styles time to catch up with wide receivers and running backs catching the ball in space.

Ultimately, I don’t think a dink-and-dunk offense is going to be enough to break the Buckeyes. The Silver Bullets are too good to have their wills and backs broken by the college football version of death by a thousand cuts. While I imagine that Oregon will complete a lot of these passes — and will likely move the ball as well — as long as the OSU defense keeps everything in front of them, I don’t see this being a game plan that will hurt the Buckeyes all that much.

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Let us know who you are agreeing with:​

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Ohio State needs to get off the field on third down to beat Oregon
Matt Tamanini via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

You ask, we answer. Sometimes we ask, others answer. And then other times, we ask, we answer.

Throughout the Ohio State football season, we will be asking and answering questions about the team, college football, and anything else on our collective minds of varying degrees of importance. If you have a question that you would like to ask, you can tweet us @LandGrant33 or if you need more than 280 characters, send an email HERE.

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It will be the game of the season tonight in Autzen Stadium as the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes travel to the Pacific Northwest to take on the No. 3 Oregon Ducks. Ohio State has looked fairly dominant through its first five games of the season, allowing more than seven points just once, but they will be in for a much different test tonight in Eugene.

The Ducks started off a little wonkily against Idaho and Boise State, but have since righted their metaphorical ship and look to be the impressive squad that many expected coming into the season. So, in a talent-equated game like this one, we wanted to see how Buckeye Nation felt heaving into the prime-time showdown.


So, in this week’s fan survey, we asked OSU fans what they thought was going to be the most pivotal factor in the Buckeyes winning, and then, what the margin of victory would be. You can check out the collective responses (and my unsolicited commentary on them) below. Then, if you want to add in your two cents, you can do so in the comments at the bottom of the page.

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Question 1: What will be the biggest factor in Ohio State beating Oregon on Saturday?​

With the Buckeye offense having clearly passed its first significant test of the season in last week’s game against the Iowa Hawkeyes, now it’s the Silver Bullets’ turn this week as they will be tasked with keeping Dillon Gabriel and the Oregon offense in check.

The Ducks enter tonight’s game with the No. 25 offense in terms of yards per game at 458.6 and the 31st-scoring offense at 35 points each game. Oregon is a pass-heavy team averaging 294.2 yards through the air per game — good for 19th nationally — while only putting up 164.4 yards on the ground, which has them at 67th.

Ohio State’s defense has been mostly stellar thus far, but Jim Knowles’ unit has had a tendency of giving up long third-down conversions. While that hasn’t especially hurt them against offensively deficient teams like Iowa, Michigan State, and Marshall, it absolutely could versus the likes of Oregon.

So, I think that the plurality of respondents here is correct; of course that can also factor in a handful of the other popular answers too, including the defensive line pressuring Gabriel and the linebackers playing disciplined football.

Of course, the OSU defense isn’t going to stop Oregon on every third-down opportunity, but if the Buckeyes can bow up better than they have in recent games, tonight’s contest could get out of hand. Personally, I haven’t minded the third-down calls because it seemed fairly evident given the extra cushion from the OSU corners, that Knowles was looking to prevent major splash plays. While bend-but-don’t-break is not always good for the heart, it does make sense, especially against a potentially more explosive offense like Oregon’s.

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Question 2: What will the margin of victory be in Saturday’s game against Oregon?​

It looks like the vast majority (77% to be exact) of Buckeye fans polled think this is going to be a relatively close game, which Vegas and NBC would probably appreciate. The line is just 3.5 points (with OSU as the road-favorite), and the gold standard college football analytics model SP+ projects Ohio State to win 29-26. Don’t get me wrong, I would happily take a three-point win, hell, I’d happily take a one-point win, but I don’t think that it will be that close tonight.

As we do every week, members of the LGHL staff all made our predictions for the game. We’ve got score, storyline, and MVP picks, and while you should click on that link and see what we’ve got to say, I will tell you that I am going 34-13 in favor of the Buckeye. I went further in-depth on this morning’s edition of the “Land-Grant Tailgate Podcast,” which you can listen to below.

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Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Ohio State fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.

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