The thing you aren’t accounting for is we are Vegas. We are the ones with the better odds.
We are the ones with better skill. Odds are not skill. Lead is not gold, fat is not muscle and none of these things turn into the other things.
I pointed out gambling as something you should avoid because the concept of "I just need more opportunities for my luck to turn around" is how bad gamblers go broke and big shiny buildings get built.
The guys who make a living at selling you risk want you to have this kind of fundamental misunderstanding.
If we were the ones gambling (the lessor talented team) then I agree. But if you’re the one with the better odds then force a team with less talent to do it again and again.
Jesus Christ. That is exactly backwards and again, "we" aren't the house in a casino game. You are using ana analogy that makes no sense.
I'll do this one last time for my own peace of mind:
-The outcome of a play = skill + luck(random variance)
-More plays increase the chance of luck expressing itself (fattens the tail in a distribution curve). So try to absorb that slowly....
More plays = more luck...when you have the better skill...this is bad.
-When you have the lesser skilled team (or are behind) you now want luck to express itself because you need it. Again...lesser team wants/needs luck. How do you give yourself the chance for more luck? Go faster, run more plays.
With the better team...going faster helps your opponent. Doing things to help the opponent is generally considered a bad idea.
I understand the approach and it’s worked out pretty well overall. But I think we could all agree is sure would’ve been nice to have an extra 3 possessions vs Miami and IU.
Edit- anyway I think I’ve made my point lol no need to keep carrying on. This offense regardless should be something but will be good to see them tested more frequently next year.
You've made a very clear statement-I'll give you that. I don't think it's the statement you think it is, but you've made it.
The strategy of winning through efficiency is simple:
-plays are the building block of a possession
-everyone, regardless of skill level wants to score more points per possession on offense and..
-allow fewer points per possession on defense
-When you have the better skill and a positive delta (that means difference) in points per possession then you can really hurt the opponent by doing what?.......
Reduce their number of possessions on top of having a per possession advantage.
How do you do that? Take time off the clock on offense as you score.
That is what Day has been doing for 4 years now. He won a NC with it last year. This is how Cignetti at IU beat OSU this year. His guys could just execute better. These guys aren't stupid. They know the best strategy for winning the game of football.