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2026 tOSU Offense Discussion

Another way to look at the decision to try to increase possessions because of a perceived talent advantage: mathematically.

If you are Team A, and have a talent advantage and operate more efficiently, your chances of scoring on each possession could be:

Team A: 40% chance at 7 points, 20% chance at 3 points, and 40% chance at 0 points.

Team B: 25% chance at 7 points, 15% chance at 3 points, and 50% chance at 0 points.

If each team got 10 possessions, on average Team A would score 34 points, and Team B would score an average of 22 points.

If each team got 12 possessions, on average Team A would score 40.8 points and Team B would score an average of 26.4 points.

Since more possessions increase the probability for a larger point differential, and thus increase the chances of Team A winning, I think that fact is sensed by those hoping for a faster pace.

This of course assumes other things being equal in impacting the outcome, such as the rest each defense would be getting, and the ability to execute efficiently at an increased tempo.

And this is just for an individual game, it doesn’t factor in how increased plays increase the chances of injuries and thus could decrease the likelihood of winning subsequent games.
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Indiana Hoosiers (2025 National Champions)

I don’t think they’ll ever have an NIL war, because they’re rarely pursuing guys that other teams want to offer top dollar for. Mendoza and Hoover didn’t have massive markets, neither did the other guys they got so far, besides Marsh. That was a HUGE get, but the WRs they got in the Portal were not wanted by many, nor were most of their transfers. They’re getting older guys who they don’t have to worry about off the field, and are more mature. But they don’t have the raw talent of what OSU has, but they do have older guys who won’t make dumb mistakes.

It’s a dangerous game to play if you want to rely on transfers as your main way to obtain talent. There’s a fine line between being IU and being Auburn and Colorado. But it seems like IU is bringing in guys not looking for massive NIL deals like the other 2 schools
Indeed FSU played it right for 1 year and terribly for 2 in a row
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Indiana Hoosiers (2025 National Champions)

IU fueling a NIL war in the BIG. Will be interesting to see the response
I don’t think they’ll ever have an NIL war, because they’re rarely pursuing guys that other teams want to offer top dollar for. Mendoza and Hoover didn’t have massive markets, neither did the other guys they got so far, besides Marsh. That was a HUGE get, but the WRs they got in the Portal were not wanted by many, nor were most of their transfers. They’re getting older guys who they don’t have to worry about off the field, and are more mature. But they don’t have the raw talent of what OSU has, but they do have older guys who won’t make dumb mistakes.

It’s a dangerous game to play if you want to rely on transfers as your main way to obtain talent. There’s a fine line between being IU and being Auburn and Colorado. But it seems like IU is bringing in guys not looking for massive NIL deals like the other 2 schools
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HC Ryan Day (B1G Coach of Year, B1G Champion, National Champion)

I don't know enough about scheme to know whether Day's offense is outdated, but the experience of Howard, burst of Judkins and Henderson, and a stable right side of the OL was the difference between last year and this one.
This.

Day's offense has ranked inside the top 4 in efficiency 6 times in the 8 years he's been primary OC & HC.

The two years it was outside the top 4 he had McCord at QB and rFR Sayin at QB.

The 6 years of top 4 he had Fields, Stroud and Howard.

I'm going to roll with "It's the Quarterback stupid" mixed with a little bit of "not all first year QB's are CJ Stroud" and not lose any sleep over Day's "outdated" offense or Sayin's eventual development

4 days into the off season and I already hate it more than the loss to Miami. Some truly epic nonsense being spewed already.
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Indiana Hoosiers (2025 National Champions)

Haven’t listened to his stick in years. He was good awhile ago, but then he got full of himself and just tiresome to listen too
I think when he got to Fox and they gave him the bag and he knew that his job was safe, he stopped caring. He’s their OG at this point with Skip getting canned
I can't remember when he was actually good. I am not denying that he was, I just wasn't paying attention to him then. To me he's always been a West Coast Finebaum.
I can see that. I think he’s always been more of a bandwagon rider. But he used to have some interesting takes that were outside the box but were pretty spot on. Now it just seems he’s the grumpy stubborn old guy, mixed with the message board guy who just says things for engagement. And he mixes that with an air of superiority, yet he’s always the least knowledgeable in every category on any sport
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Ohio State Wrestling (2015/2017/2018 B1G Champs, 2015 National Champs, 2019 National Runners-up)

Solid win for the Bucks this evening. They beat Oregon State 41-3. The only loss was Geog 8-7 in the tiebreaker. Geog was up 7-5 with about 18 seconds left. He needed to ride his opponent out to win the match as the other guy had riding time locked up. Kid escaped with about 4-5 seconds left which tied the score at 7 at the end of regulation. Each wrestler traded shots in sudden victory with no takedowns. In the first tiebreak, Geog’s opponent escaped in 1 sec and neither wrestler was able to take the other down. In Geog l’s tiebreak, he would’ve needed to escape in 1 second as well, as riding time in the tiebreak is what determines who the winner will be if no takedowns occur. Geog opted to go neutral awarding the point to his opponent, hoping to score a takedown in the 30 second period. He was unable to get it. Heck of a match. Both kids were exhausted and wrestled their asses off. Geog was down most of the match too, and scored two takedowns in the 3rd to take the lead. He really showed some grit after getting ridden for most of the 1st period. Love seeing that and it should give the team confidence (hopefully) moving forward at 197.
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2026 tOSU Special Teams Discussion

Would it, though? In 2025, he was:

6-7 from 20-29 (Fielding was 6-7, too)
7-8 from 30-39 (Fielding was 7-8, too)
7-8 from 40-49 (Fielding was 3-4 in 2025, but was 7-8 in 2024)
0-0 from 50+ (Fielding was 0-1)

He has a career-long of 50 made in 2024. Fielding has a career-long of 49 made in 2025z

He’s never missed a “very important kick” like Fielding has, but he’s also never had the opportunity to choke in a huge situation.

On paper, he’s basically the exact same player.

The stats show the similarity in percentages, but he’s been consistent and clutch for two years solid. He’s been clutch when Illinois has needed him and even has 5 FGs in a single game. When the pressure is on, it seems like the kid can come up big with an “it” factor. That isn’t something we’ve had here in years.

In 2024:
6-6 from 20-29
6-6 from 30-39
4-6 from 40-49
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2026 tOSU Offense Discussion

The thing you aren’t accounting for is we are Vegas. We are the ones with the better odds.
We are the ones with better skill. Odds are not skill. Lead is not gold, fat is not muscle and none of these things turn into the other things.

I pointed out gambling as something you should avoid because the concept of "I just need more opportunities for my luck to turn around" is how bad gamblers go broke and big shiny buildings get built.

The guys who make a living at selling you risk want you to have this kind of fundamental misunderstanding.
If we were the ones gambling (the lessor talented team) then I agree. But if you’re the one with the better odds then force a team with less talent to do it again and again.
Jesus Christ. That is exactly backwards and again, "we" aren't the house in a casino game. You are using ana analogy that makes no sense.

I'll do this one last time for my own peace of mind:
-The outcome of a play = skill + luck(random variance)
-More plays increase the chance of luck expressing itself (fattens the tail in a distribution curve). So try to absorb that slowly....More plays = more luck...when you have the better skill...this is bad.
-When you have the lesser skilled team (or are behind) you now want luck to express itself because you need it. Again...lesser team wants/needs luck. How do you give yourself the chance for more luck? Go faster, run more plays.

With the better team...going faster helps your opponent. Doing things to help the opponent is generally considered a bad idea.
I understand the approach and it’s worked out pretty well overall. But I think we could all agree is sure would’ve been nice to have an extra 3 possessions vs Miami and IU.

Edit- anyway I think I’ve made my point lol no need to keep carrying on. This offense regardless should be something but will be good to see them tested more frequently next year.
You've made a very clear statement-I'll give you that. I don't think it's the statement you think it is, but you've made it.


The strategy of winning through efficiency is simple:
-plays are the building block of a possession
-everyone, regardless of skill level wants to score more points per possession on offense and..
-allow fewer points per possession on defense
-When you have the better skill and a positive delta (that means difference) in points per possession then you can really hurt the opponent by doing what?.......
Reduce their number of possessions on top of having a per possession advantage.
How do you do that? Take time off the clock on offense as you score.

That is what Day has been doing for 4 years now. He won a NC with it last year. This is how Cignetti at IU beat OSU this year. His guys could just execute better. These guys aren't stupid. They know the best strategy for winning the game of football.
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