OHSportsFan said:

Good stats and it gives me some comfort.

That said, these 3 teams will at least have a much smaller individual talent gap compared to IU vs OSU (I assume).

IU is very well coached, experienced and aggressive on defense. They play similar “team defense” as OSU in a way.

But Georgia/Miami/TAMU could still have individual matchup edges where - if coached well - could be a problem in a one game playoff. Especially if they found what IU did and OSU doesn’t have an answer.

I’ll be honest I don’t know enough about their rosters to say. And a lot can still change in 3 weeks - hopefully with OSU coaches correcting course.

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The one thing stats can't perfectly call out is true talent. It just can't tell if you have an NFL 1st rounder at NG who's been dinged up and not playing at his best but after a months rest goes nuclear on you.

But that's why it's all probabilities and not guarantees (that kind of thing wouldn't wildly swing win % anyway)

No doubt the talent gap closes with these teams but on the other hand-they have had all year to put up numbers against the better competition so to a pretty healthy degree, you are what your data says you are (good data, scrubbed for garbage time, adjusted for opponents etc) at this point in the year.

Upsets happen from turnovers, short fields, fluky explosive plays and empty RZ trips from the favorite almost exclusively. If you know what to look for in style types you can see the red/yellow/green signals that one unit may be a real problem for the other.

The pre game "script" for IU/OSU wasn't wrong. IU got the two turnovers they needed in the second half to go with the pressure on Sayin and that was what they needed. Odds were against them but as they say, shit happens.

Once again, Congrats to @tugger5000 on winning this year’s contest. There will be a separate contest for the bowl games.

Those scoring points this week:

muffler dragon…………….....3.5……duke/virginia
CMic……………………………3.5
brodybuck21………………….3.5
Zurp…………………………….3.5
iambrutus………………..……3.5

Other upsets this week which nobody picked:

indiana/tosu…………...……..5.5
TULANE/n texas……………..2.5
/

Final standings:

tugger5000…….…….….....74.… CONGRATS!!
muffler dragon…………….58
Akron-Buck………………..54.5
MD Buckeye……………….53
808 Buck……………………52.5
Honor&Glory………………48.5
BB73………………………..48.5
thackattack………………..42.5
osugrad21………………….42.5
Illini Dylan..…………….….41.5
AuTx Buckeye…………….41
tOSURox…………………..40.5
BigWoof31…………………39.5
brodybuck21………………39.5
Steve19…………………….39
Zurp…………………………37
WoodyWorshiper.....…......36.5
Captain Buckeye…………36.5
BuckeyeNation27……...…36….only 6.5 points behind osugrad21
Bestbuck36………………..35
gracelhink………………….34.5
heisman……………………32.5
buckeyemania11…………30.5
iambrutus………………….30
Fungo Squiggly………......29.5
gregorylee…………..…….28.5
wolves2002………………..28
Bucklion……………….…..24.5
HineyBuck…………….…..24
Wadcutter…………………23.5
dozenmonkeyz…….……..23
CMic………………………..23
Mike80……………….…….22.5
Bborg140………………….21
Wingate1217……………..20.5
ScriptOhio……………...…19
Kevin……………………….17.5
TDunk……………….….….16.5
gmen6981………………….15.5
buckeyboy.........................11.5
cincibuck………...……........8.5
LovelandBuckeye………….0……Goose egg!
/

If you believe a mistake has been made, please @ me in this thread or send me a PM.

OregonBuckeye said:

Sooners are ass. They're better than Bama too

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OK has a good defense. They can turn it into a rock fight.

They'd pick Knowles up in a heartbeat. Qualification #1 to work there: are you willing to cheat?
#2: Did you used to work for Ohio State?

BuckeyesGunn said:

Yeah, IU is a very good team right now. Also have to say they played all out against us, and not sure they can maintain that energy. Not sure what to think about them up against Bama or Sooners though.

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Sooners are ass. They're better than Bama too

I'll just put this in here instead of offense and defense threads. This is a mix of FEI data (tells us what teams have done) and CFB EPA data (tells us how teams do it). There is more to it but that's the high level.

OSU Bracket Matrix

Threat to OSU on each side of the ball

Indiana​

• Only team whose defensive architecture materially distorts OSU's offensive rhythm as we just saw.
• Offense is not elite; threat comes 75% from defense (13 points)

Georgia​

• Balanced, top-10 in everything, but nothing that specifically attacks OSU’s structural weaknesses.
• Most “complete” opponent on this side.

Miami​

• Defense good enough to slow OSU some, but OSU defense >Miami’s offense.
• Hard for Miami to get to 20 points in this game.

Texas A&M​

• QB-run based run game gets shut down by OSU front.
• Defensive drive efficiency is not top-tier when opponent-adjusted.
• Can’t threaten OSU unless OSU self-inflicts.

Ole Miss​

• Cannot defend OSU’s WR room or methodical structure.
• Offense gets erased by OSU D.

Tulane​

Ha

We will be ~7 point favorite over TAMU/Miami
Probably ~-3 over UGA

My single biggest concern is playing in Glendale. Fuck that place.

Jaxbuck said:

Some perspective after last night using a mix of BCFtoys (what you have done on the field) CFB graphs data (how you have done it):

SUMMARY TABLE — DEFENSIVE QUALITY (OSU SIDE ONLY)​

Team	DFEI Rank	DSR Rank	DAY Rank	Overall Danger to OSU
Indiana	#3	#3	#5	Very High
Miami	#7	#10	#7	Moderate
Georgia	#13	#12	#17	Moderate–Low
Texas A&M	#14	#15	#17	Low
Ole Miss	#22	#15–20	#15	Low
Tulane	#30+	#25+	#35+	Negligible

IU is far and away the best defense we will face before a possible rematch with it.

None of:
-Georgia
-Miami
-A&M
-Ole Miss
are even close.

Indiana:
best early-down efficiency
top-tier drive denial
elite finishing drives allowed
elite available-yards suppression
elite FEI stability
best red-zone constraints
best suited for OSU’s style (this is the killer)

Georgia/Miami/A&M simply cannot replicate the same "structural discomfort" IU can create.

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Didn’t realize it was that big of a gulf. Just glad they got film and have something to work from like Oregon last season.

If Sayin isn’t frazzled from the start and the OL plays even slightly better, they can score 20+.

CMic said:

I’m surprised their DC hasn’t left for the NFL. The NFL loves to recycle guys like him.

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They are praying he does so they can hire one of harbaugh tree's hand me downs. They are obsessed with raven's systemmm

LordJeffBuck said:

Please explain this to me:

#1 Ohio State loses its CCG by 3 points and drops in the CFP standings....

But #9 Alabama loses its CCG by 21 points and doesn't drop in the CFP standings.

How is this fair?

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Buckeyes lost to an undefeated team just below them, they have to drop at least to #2.

Bama was at #9 and lost to #3, so it‘s a different scenario.

Good, Lord! What a ridiculous situation. With so much crap on the internet I am withholding judgement. But, man...It doesn't look good.

CMic said:

I really liked Mendoza - much better than the yahoo they had last year. They’re going to be a tough out.

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Yep. Something said to me after mendoza got rocked by Curry, when I saw him come back out, that they were going to pull this off. I felt that way all week, just a gut feeling. That to me solidified it.

CMic said:

I really liked Mendoza - much better than the yahoo they had last year. They’re going to be a tough out.

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The games on their side of the bracket should be some tough ass affairs.

BuckeyesGunn said:

Yeah, IU is a very good team right now. Also have to say they played all out against us, and not sure they can maintain that energy. Not sure what to think about them up against Bama or Sooners though.

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I really liked Mendoza - much better than the yahoo they had last year. They’re going to be a tough out.

muffler dragon said:

If they don't play in a bowl game, then they don't get the extra practices, right?

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Thump said:

Correct.

Myopic as usual.

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Maybe they can invite cheeseburger Charlie back and have a competitive eating contest in lieu of a bowl

Jaxbuck said:

I personally don't think they held anything back and no way shape or form am I taking anything from IU. I just think there was less juice from OSU after The Game.

They wanted to win but there is only so much emotional fuel in the tank.

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Yeah, IU is a very good team right now. Also have to say they played all out against us, and not sure they can maintain that energy. Not sure what to think about them up against Bama or Sooners though.

Lott Trophy winner!

Thats #2 for the Bucks. The other winner? James Laurinaitis.

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Im not about to knock Sayin. But fourth and 1, I have more faith in Keinholz than Sayin if you’re going to run for it.

muffler dragon said:

If they don't play in a bowl game, then they don't get the extra practices, right?

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Correct.

Myopic as usual.

buckeyemania11 said:

It's possible for two things to be true here. The NIL Issue and Diebler just not being very good overall as a basketball coach. He's yet to show us anything to give confidence that he's not just a continuation of holtmann

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He's yet to show YOU anything. The truth is Diebler is starting to get elite recruits, they're just not here yet. He also did coach the team well during his time as interim coach - there was an immediate turnaround and it was a breath of fresh air compared with Holtmann coaching the exact same team. So to say there's nothing to show he's not a continuation of Holtmann is objectively false. While not a 5-star, Bynum looks like a recruiting hit, and Mobley was an OK recruit as well, so perhaps the high school recruits are becoming more hits and less misses. Holtmann never got a 5-star recruit to commit to OSU, not once. I do believe wholeheartedly that NIL has been hampering this program, and that - along with Meechie Johnson's flake-out & Ojianwuna not recovering quickly from injury - has helped torpedo Diebler's first couple of seasons.

BuckeyesGunn said:

Day didn't seem too concerned about the loss imo. I think getting the team p*ssed may have been the plan...or something...was an odd game for sure.

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I personally don't think they held anything back and no way shape or form am I taking anything from IU. I just think there was less juice from OSU after The Game.

They wanted to win but there is only so much emotional fuel in the tank.

I’m surprised their DC hasn’t left for the NFL. The NFL loves to recycle guys like him.

buckeyemania11 said:

Ruining Cryamis "return" would be great.

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Every 20 years or so you should put a new stake through their heart, just to make sure they are still dead

Jaxbuck said:

Yeah, gonna just ride with Day on this one.

I don't like the idea of the split focus but a) they didn't ask me and b) others have made it work then again, c) last night was suboptimal.

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Day didn't seem too concerned about the loss imo. I think getting the team p*ssed may have been the plan...or something...was an odd game for sure.

Ahh, another non-competitive season for scum. At least we’re getting back to some normalcy here.

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