Defenseman had 33 points last season, could have become unrestricted free agent
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Provorov signs 7-year, $59.5 million contract with Blue Jackets
Ivan Provorov signed a seven-year, $59.5 million contract with the Columbus Blue Jackets on Tuesday. It has an average annual value of $8.5 million.
The 28-year-old defenseman had 33 points (seven goals, 26 assists) in 82 games for the Blue Jackets last season. He could have become an unrestricted free agent on Tuesday.
“I think I knew I wanted to stay,” Provorov said. “My understanding was they wanted to keep me. Obviously, I think it’s not a secret they explored and looked at other options. Definitely was a stressful week.
“Definitely didn’t know if I was coming back or not, but I think obviously the want for me was to stay and to re-sign here, and I’m glad we were able to come to an agreement to keep all of us together.”
Selected by the Philadelphia Flyers in the first round (No. 7) of the 2015 NHL Draft, Provorov has 282 points (77 goals, 205 assists) in 696 regular-season games for the Flyers and Blue Jackets and 11 points (three goals, eight assists) in 22 Stanley Cup Playoff games.
“Obviously, we really wanted ‘Provy’ to stay here, and I think you heard it (from him) -- he wanted to stay here,” Columbus general manager Don Waddell said. “When you have 2-3 weeks prior there are talks, but you don’t get down to the nuts and bolts as much as in the last 24 hours or so.
“We know, from our end, as of today he could sign with anybody. So, that’s the biggest thing as you approach deadlines, whether it’s the draft or whatever it is, deadlines usually create action.”
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On paper, it feels almost impossible to spin this immediate albatross in any positive light. The problem is the cost, at $8.5 million AAV.
www.nytimes.com
NHL contract grades: Blue Jackets massively overpay Ivan Provorov in confounding 7-year deal
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The problem is the cost. An $8.5 million AAV — even in a rising cap world — is a lot of money. The expected Net Rating for that is plus-7.1 for the 2025-26 season, which is what you’d expect for a strong No. 2 defender. It would’ve made sense for an Aaron Ekblad type, but Provorov is not in that stratosphere or, frankly, even close to it. His projected Net Rating for next season is minus-0.8 — right around average. Essentially, the Blue Jackets are paying No. 2 money to a No. 4 defenseman. It doesn’t add up.
There’s a chance Provorov can be that guy for Columbus — it’s just an extremely low one. When teams sign contracts, they’re making bets on what the 50-50 price is, or they’re adding risk to their cap sheet. In the UFA market, where the player has all the leverage, a 30 or 40 percent bet is fair game and sometimes excusable. This isn’t that. With Provorov, the Blue Jackets basically bought a 1-in-25 ticket where the odds of Provorov living up to this price tag are too low to make any sense. It’s a bet that immediately ranks as one of the league’s absolute worst. Even the absolute best case scenario is probably $1.5 million off.
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