Joe Lunardi's ultimate guide to men's March Madness 2026​

We've made the case for exactly how each team will advance -- and how they won't. Bracketologist in Chief Joe Lunardi also ran the numbers one last time to forecast where each will actually finish in the final field of 68.

No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes​

Why they will advance

After a month of life on the bubble, the Buckeyes quieted the critics with an impressive four-game winning streak -- which included wins over Purdue, Indiana and Iowa -- and then a close loss against mighty Michigan in the Big Ten quarterfinals. Now in the field of 68, Ohio State could wreak some havoc, thanks to proven scorers Bruce Thornton (20.2 PPG) and John Mobley Jr. (15.8 PPG).

Why they won't advance

Jake Diebler's squad has struggled at times on the defensive glass, leading to second-chance points for opponents. Another fatal flaw is that the starting five is strong, but the bench offers few reliable options. That means heavy minutes for the core group of Thornton, Mobley, Devin Royal (13.7 PPG), Christoph Tilly (11.1 PPG) and Amare Bynum (9.8 PPG).

Did you know?

In a sign of the NIL times, Thornton is one of just 22 current power-conference men's basketball players to play at the same school for four years. The first four-time captain in Ohio State program history, he surpassed Dennis Hopson (1984-87) this season to become the program's all-time leading scorer. He is at 2,156 career points and counting. -- Bill Doherty

By the numbers

Eye test rank: 26
Résumé rating: 36
NCAA seed list: 31

Joey Brackets says ...

The Buckeyes' core is made up of four double-digit scorers and a fifth (Bynum) within a whisker. They play with a hard-hat toughness, a trait that helped them play themselves firmly off the bubble and into the bracket. But will their stay in Bracketville be lengthy? Probably not, as TCU's balance proves too much in the first tip of the full bracket.

Final field rank: 38

No. 9 TCU Horned Frogs​

Why they will advance

The Horned Frogs finished the regular season on somewhat of a roll, winning their final five games and eight of their last nine -- including over then-No. 5 Iowa State and at then-No. 10 Texas Tech. They're balanced, too: Four players average double figures, though no one has more than 13.6 PPG.

Why they won't advance

While TCU is solid in most areas, it is not exceptional at any one thing. In the NCAA tournament, where the competition gets tougher, it doesn't have a superpower to rely on. The Frogs can't depend on 3-point shooting (32.9%), clutch free throw shooting (70.6%) or rebounding dominance (plus-2.7 margin).

Did you know?

TCU is appearing in its 12th NCAA tournament, and Jamie Dixon has been involved in half of those. He helped the Frogs win a game in the tournament in 1987 as the starting point guard, and has been the head coach for the last five appearances. The Frogs are a combined 2-4 so far with him. -- David Smale

By the numbers

Eye test rank: 45
Résumé rating: 36
NCAA seed list: 34

Joey Brackets says ...

A late surge took TCU from the outside of the bubble to solidly in the tournament, and the Frogs have impressed enough to lead me to give them one NCAA win. They've got the moxie to escape Ohio State in a true 50-50 game, but that's it, with Duke on the horizon.

Final field rank: 27

I watched the old game between TCU and Wisconsin from early in the season on BTN+. Obviously TCU is a team that's physical, strong, quick and athletic. The key (other than scoring the most points) for OSU is going to be not turning the ball over & passing to the open man. Wisconsin struggled in the first half and put themselves in a hole by turning it over, and then they did better at not turning it over but didn't show much poise in attacking TCU's defense. TCU pressures the perimeter, they take away easy 3s. They will hard hedge to try and force the PG to give up the ball, and when the ball gets to the bigs down low they will double. So clearly it's going to be important to share the ball, and many times the "one more" pass is going to find a wide open guy - it's just a matter of not turning the ball over and getting to that point.

Tomateaux Quinoa Gumbeaux said:

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That is pretty sick. Isn't there some charge for poisoning people? Shouldn't that count as poisoning people?

New entry for consideration: There's a couple of spots near me where the right-most lane is a right-turn-only lane. In one spot, there's a lane straight across from that spot, so it looks like it could be a straight lane, too. But it isn't. Look at the sign. Right-turn only. But you see fucksticks pull up there all the time and want to go straight.
At least 2 other spots that I know of don't have the lane continuing on the other side of the intersection - it just ends right there. Turn right or get forced off the road. Or... what everyone does is they just muscle their way into the lane to their left. So, here I am waiting in this line like a putz while fucksticks pass everyone on the right, then cut everyone off when the light turns green.

Sharing @ORD_Buckeye link over here as it seems I missed some of the crappy ass decisions this dude made. What a crock!


At least he is off every board at OSU.

God, good riddance to this guy. I guess we now know why he had that absolute joke of a Spring commencement speaker that nobody heard of...you remember, the crypto guy. I wonder how his mandatory AI instruction decision was influenced by the people lining his pockets. Worst President in Ohio State's history. Thank God he couldn't keep his dick in his pants and won't be around long enough to really mess things up.

I don't know how long Bellamkonda will be around or how well he'll do. I just know that he's not Slapshot, and that in and of itself is a huge success.

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