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Deciding When to Retire

Jaxbuck
CMic said:
You guys realize that you’re giving long term financial planning advice to a bunch of 50+ yo people?
Click to expand...

I have given zero advice.

I am calling extreme bullshit on what's passing for advice
heisman said:
Here is actually the best way to do it. Take out government loans for the education costs. No payments and the government pays the interest for 5 years. Post graduation, you pay it all off with the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow….

View attachment 90008
Click to expand...

You let me know where I can find an investment that gives me 12% compounding monthly returns and never loses for 23 years. I'll sell a fucking kidney to get enough cash to put into that. So would every professional trader on Wall Street. No investment makes those returns.

Look, stop with the gorilla math. It's three simple things:
1) It's not what you make, it's what you keep
2) inflation is a hidden tax
3) when that hidden tax grows faster than what you make = you keep less

I used to be embarrassed to tell employees they were getting a 3% "bonus" when it was really just a COLA and we all knew inflation was cooking at a much higher rate than 3%. I prefer to be honest and just say "I know it's not enough but it's better than nothing-you are losing less fast now".

I am not arguing that people can't retire by saving enough, we all know its possible. My point was, and still is, that if you are below a certain level of income then the path to financial freedom/being an owner is being stacked against you every passing year i.e. inflation tax on your wages is growing faster than your wages.

You make 150K + your odds are much better of having enough discretionary income to save a meaningful amount (assuming nothing bad happens along the way).
Trying to raise a family the past 40 years on 40-50K a year and have a comfortable retirement?
Good fucking luck.
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Deciding When to Retire

DubCoffman62
CMic said:
You guys realize that you’re giving long term financial planning advice to a bunch of 50+ yo people?
Click to expand...
We don't have much time to correct our course. My ultimate plan is to cash out and go live in Guatemala or El Salvador like a boss in my final years. It had originally been Colombia but it's become a narco-state being run by commie guerillas, Mexico too.
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Deciding When to Retire

heisman
Jaxbuck said:
You have a lot of assumptions at work here to fit your argument and the fact that you need to get this cute with numbers to even still not be able to defend your position that this is all because people are stupid and lazy should tell you something.

First, the deductions for health insurance are in no way shape or form a proxy for the real increase in cost of healthcare. That insults the intelligence to even try. Again, you are ignoring the expense of it and how much that has outpaced wage growth.

Second, putting 20 a week into a 529 plan is no where near enough to pay for college "in full" by the time they are 18-19. That is patently false.
20x 52 = $1,040 do that for 18 years and you are talking about less than 20K. You might be able to get 45-50K out of that. Pretty fucking far from college paid in full.

Lastly, I let it go last time but you keep going back there, $30 a week isn't going to be $4.4MM

Contribution​
Annual return​
Time​
Ending value​
$30/week​
12%​
40 years​
~$1.27M​
$30/week​
12%​
50 years​
~$3.96M​
$30/week​
12%​
51 years​
~$4.48M​
$30/week​
10%​
50 years​
~$1.90M​
$30/week​
8%​
50 years​
~$930K​
Even if you juice up the returns to fantasy levels, never allow for losses, timing, breaks in income/contributions or any other life events it doesn't get there.

Bottom line is you are, intentionally I think, ignoring the cost side of the equation. Showing someone that they could save X in todays dollars out into the future without applying the haircut for inflation over that same period is disingenuous at best. Even if your 4.4MM was accurate (it isn't but lets just roll with it) do you have the side by side of what 4.4MM in todays dollars would be if you apply a 3-4% inflation tax (because that is what it is) to the returns for the same time period?

Here is what you are looking at if you are realistic with people:

$30 × 52 × 25 = $39,000

Annual investment return​
Future nominal value after 25 years​
Value in today’s dollars at 3% inflation​
Value in today’s dollars at 4% inflation​
Value in today’s dollars at 5% inflation​
8%​
$118,461​
$56,578​
$44,437​
$34,982​
10%​
$160,823​
$76,810​
$60,327​
$47,492​
15%​
$355,796​
$169,930​
$133,465​
$105,067​
Click to expand...
Here is actually the best way to do it. Take out government loans for the education costs. No payments and the government pays the interest for 5 years. Post graduation, you pay it all off with the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow….

1780241000399.png
Click to expand...
Upvote 0

Deciding When to Retire

heisman
Jaxbuck said:
You have a lot of assumptions at work here to fit your argument and the fact that you need to get this cute with numbers to even still not be able to defend your position that this is all because people are stupid and lazy should tell you something.

First, the deductions for health insurance are in no way shape or form a proxy for the real increase in cost of healthcare. That insults the intelligence to even try. Again, you are ignoring the expense of it and how much that has outpaced wage growth.

Second, putting 20 a week into a 529 plan is no where near enough to pay for college "in full" by the time they are 18-19. That is patently false.
20x 52 = $1,040 do that for 18 years and you are talking about less than 20K. You might be able to get 45-50K out of that. Pretty fucking far from college paid in full.

Lastly, I let it go last time but you keep going back there, $30 a week isn't going to be $4.4MM

Contribution​
Annual return​
Time​
Ending value​
$30/week​
12%​
40 years​
~$1.27M​
$30/week​
12%​
50 years​
~$3.96M​
$30/week​
12%​
51 years​
~$4.48M​
$30/week​
10%​
50 years​
~$1.90M​
$30/week​
8%​
50 years​
~$930K​
Even if you juice up the returns to fantasy levels, never allow for losses, timing, breaks in income/contributions or any other life events it doesn't get there.

Bottom line is you are, intentionally I think, ignoring the cost side of the equation. Showing someone that they could save X in todays dollars out into the future without applying the haircut for inflation over that same period is disingenuous at best. Even if your 4.4MM was accurate (it isn't but lets just roll with it) do you have the side by side of what 4.4MM in todays dollars would be if you apply a 3-4% inflation tax (because that is what it is) to the returns for the same time period?

Here is what you are looking at if you are realistic with people:

$30 × 52 × 25 = $39,000

Annual investment return​
Future nominal value after 25 years​
Value in today’s dollars at 3% inflation​
Value in today’s dollars at 4% inflation​
Value in today’s dollars at 5% inflation​
8%​
$118,461​
$56,578​
$44,437​
$34,982​
10%​
$160,823​
$76,810​
$60,327​
$47,492​
15%​
$355,796​
$169,930​
$133,465​
$105,067​
Click to expand...
Compound interest on 18 years of $20 per week for college….I‘m not even including the tax discount.

1780240288526.png
Click to expand...
Upvote 0

Deciding When to Retire

heisman
Jaxbuck said:
You have a lot of assumptions at work here to fit your argument and the fact that you need to get this cute with numbers to even still not be able to defend your position that this is all because people are stupid and lazy should tell you something.

First, the deductions for health insurance are in no way shape or form a proxy for the real increase in cost of healthcare. That insults the intelligence to even try. Again, you are ignoring the expense of it and how much that has outpaced wage growth.

Second, putting 20 a week into a 529 plan is no where near enough to pay for college "in full" by the time they are 18-19. That is patently false.
20x 52 = $1,040 do that for 18 years and you are talking about less than 20K. You might be able to get 45-50K out of that. Pretty fucking far from college paid in full.

Lastly, I let it go last time but you keep going back there, $30 a week isn't going to be $4.4MM

Contribution​
Annual return​
Time​
Ending value​
$30/week​
12%​
40 years​
~$1.27M​
$30/week​
12%​
50 years​
~$3.96M​
$30/week​
12%​
51 years​
~$4.48M​
$30/week​
10%​
50 years​
~$1.90M​
$30/week​
8%​
50 years​
~$930K​
Even if you juice up the returns to fantasy levels, never allow for losses, timing, breaks in income/contributions or any other life events it doesn't get there.

Bottom line is you are, intentionally I think, ignoring the cost side of the equation. Showing someone that they could save X in todays dollars out into the future without applying the haircut for inflation over that same period is disingenuous at best. Even if your 4.4MM was accurate (it isn't but lets just roll with it) do you have the side by side of what 4.4MM in todays dollars would be if you apply a 3-4% inflation tax (because that is what it is) to the returns for the same time period?

Here is what you are looking at if you are realistic with people:

$30 × 52 × 25 = $39,000

Annual investment return​
Future nominal value after 25 years​
Value in today’s dollars at 3% inflation​
Value in today’s dollars at 4% inflation​
Value in today’s dollars at 5% inflation​
8%​
$118,461​
$56,578​
$44,437​
$34,982​
10%​
$160,823​
$76,810​
$60,327​
$47,492​
15%​
$355,796​
$169,930​
$133,465​
$105,067​
Click to expand...
I’m getting “cute“ by using tangible evidence? C’mon dude. You missed (or got cute?) by ignoring the company match on the 401k. You don’t get the match if you don’t invest. With that match, you get to $4.4 million dollars using a compound interest calculator using the exact history of the S&P 500. Go back to my original post if you aren’t understanding the entire scope of the math.
Click to expand...
Upvote 0

Deciding When to Retire

Jaxbuck
heisman said:
So, the math checks out, but the conclusion does not. So, 200% is 3x, which is exactly the additional amount deducted from our employees checks for PPO health insurance. $40 per pay period 25 years ago. $120 deducted from our employees’ checks today. However, the additional $80 is easily offset by the additional $800 in wages earned during that pay period. Same is true if saving for a child’s education. Enroll in a 529 and put $20 a week in the plan. Kids education paid in full by the time they are of age. The world is suffering from financial illiteracy, not lack of resources. That $30 a week for $4.4 million dollars still seems like world’s biggest no brainer to me!
Click to expand...

You have a lot of assumptions at work here to fit your argument and the fact that you need to get this cute with numbers to even still not be able to defend your position that this is all because people are stupid and lazy should tell you something.

First, the deductions for health insurance are in no way shape or form a proxy for the real increase in cost of healthcare. That insults the intelligence to even try. Again, you are ignoring the expense of it and how much that has outpaced wage growth.

Second, putting 20 a week into a 529 plan is no where near enough to pay for college "in full" by the time they are 18-19. That is patently false.
20x 52 = $1,040 do that for 18 years and you are talking about less than 20K. You might be able to get 45-50K out of that. Pretty fucking far from college paid in full.

Lastly, I let it go last time but you keep going back there, $30 a week isn't going to be $4.4MM

Contribution​
Annual return​
Time​
Ending value​
$30/week​
12%​
40 years​
~$1.27M​
$30/week​
12%​
50 years​
~$3.96M​
$30/week​
12%​
51 years​
~$4.48M​
$30/week​
10%​
50 years​
~$1.90M​
$30/week​
8%​
50 years​
~$930K​
Even if you juice up the returns to fantasy levels, never allow for losses, timing, breaks in income/contributions or any other life events it doesn't get there.

Bottom line is you are, intentionally I think, ignoring the cost side of the equation. Showing someone that they could save X in todays dollars out into the future without applying the haircut for inflation over that same period is disingenuous at best. Even if your 4.4MM was accurate (it isn't but lets just roll with it) do you have the side by side of what 4.4MM in todays dollars would be if you apply a 3-4% inflation tax (because that is what it is) to the returns for the same time period?

Here is what you are looking at if you are realistic with people:

$30 × 52 × 25 = $39,000

Annual investment return​
Future nominal value after 25 years​
Value in today’s dollars at 3% inflation​
Value in today’s dollars at 4% inflation​
Value in today’s dollars at 5% inflation​
8%​
$118,461​
$56,578​
$44,437​
$34,982​
10%​
$160,823​
$76,810​
$60,327​
$47,492​
15%​
$355,796​
$169,930​
$133,465​
$105,067​
Click to expand...
Upvote 0

Deciding When to Retire

DubCoffman62
CincyInterloper said:
So things we can live without have gotten cheaper while necessities have gotten more expensive. Have the markets for necessities gotten less competitive while the markets for luxury goods have gotten more competitive? And if so, how do we restore competitiveness to these markets? Heath-care and education in particular seem to be, to use a technical term, out of wack.
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Deciding When to Retire

heisman
One other massive piece of advice for those planning for their financial futures. Never, and I mean NEVER, put more in your 401k than the amount you need to get the employer match. If you want to invest additional funds post tax, get yourself in a tax managed brokerage account. For reference, you will never have to worry about all the bullshit rules with RMD’s, etc. My account is managed by Fidelity. They typically achieve gains that exceed the indexes by a wide margin, and the tax harvesting algorithms usually produce a minimum 6 figure tax loss every year. It is life changing when you actually get to keep what you earn.
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2026 scUM Shenanigans, Arguments, Arrogant Twatwaffles, Emasculated Cucks, Feckless Marmots, Dirty Cheaters "Mid"chigan

pnuts34
buckeyemania11 said:
We all saw it during the spring game. They can scream "you can't judge off a spring game" all they want but he looked like the exact same QB as last year mechanically. The foot work is still a disaster zero improvement there and he still throws every pass as hard as he can. At this point he's an over glorified temu version of Joe Milton
Click to expand...
I was going to say his ceiling seems to be Denard Robinson

buckeyemania11 said:
Bryce at this point seems like a classic case of a kid getting handed a bunch of money and everyone around him telling him how great he is (even when underperforming) then not actually putting any further work in because of that. scUM is the worst possible place for this kind of person considering the sunshine pumping factory up there
Click to expand...
Fully agree! And with several million in his account, hes the king of the town.
Ill also add that similar arrogance has been shown from Jordan Marshall. But RB is a position that he can rely soly on athleticism and be fine. QB not so much
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Deciding When to Retire

heisman
Jaxbuck said:
:lol:

That might work if it wasn't for the pesky basket of goods you are trying to purchase increasing significantly faster.

$100 of medical care in 1980 = ~$800 today
$100 of tuition in 1980 = ~$1,280 today
~$64K house in 1980 = ~$400K today

Like I said in the post that started this, the math is working against people. If pay goes up 4x and the stuff you need to buy goes up 8-12x...you have a lot less room for error.

EDIT

This is just since 200 for a good quick visual. The mistake is to believe the fucking government about "core CPI" and think wages have done anything remotely close to keeping up.
L
So the real financial mistake people can make is not tattoos or pot. The mistake is getting sick, having kids, getting an education or trying to buy a house.

Electronics are depreciating though. So we've got that going for us. Which is nic
Click to expand...
So, the math checks out, but the conclusion does not. So, 200% is 3x, which is exactly the additional amount deducted from our employees checks for PPO health insurance. $40 per pay period 25 years ago. $120 deducted from our employees’ checks today. However, the additional $80 is easily offset by the additional $800 in wages earned during that pay period. Same is true if saving for a child’s education. Enroll in a 529 and put $20 a week in the plan. Kids education paid in full by the time they are of age. The world is suffering from financial illiteracy, not lack of resources. That $30 a week for $4.4 million dollars still seems like world’s biggest no brainer to me!
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