I may be misreading some of your prior posts, but there also seems to be an unstated assumption that luck plays a bigger role when you're on defense than when you're on offense, and I don't understand why that's the case if it is what's being assumed.
It goes back to the simple truth of every out come being skill + luck = outcome.
Look at the odds of giving up points. Greater when on defense than on offense, right? The luck element of the outcome is higher than when on offense.
Choosing a path that creates more opportunity for the opponent (defense) is a flawed strategy. It can work out and people think it’s ok, but it was the wrong approach no matter the outcome.
To use the casino analogy a different way; Offense in football is like playing poker. If you have a skill advantage you want to play as many hands as possible. Your skill will win out. BUT in football you have to play defense and that is like having to stop playing poker and go over to play roulette. You can even be the house and get better odds if you have an elite defense but sooner or later, some stupid fucking tourist is going to hit on red 27 and you are going to have to pay.
You want to stay at the poker table as much as you can and stay away from the roulette table in the process.