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Game Thread THE GAME: #1 Ohio State 42, #2 Michigan 39 (11/18/06)

LINK

Wolverines

MICHAEL ROSENBERG: Hail, again?

Charles Woodson pointed the way to a national title in '97. This year, mums the word in Ann Arbor (and Columbus).
November 1, 2006

BY MICHAEL ROSENBERG
FREE PRESS COLUMNIST

bilde


The road to No. 1
  • The Michigan Wolverines (9-0) are ranked second in the BCS standings and will reach the championship game -- Jan. 8 at Glendale, Ariz. -- with victories in their final three games:

    ? Saturday vs. Ball State (3-6), noon (ESPNU).

    ? Nov. 11 at Indiana (5-4), 3:30 p.m. (ESPN).

    ? Nov. 18 at No. 1 Ohio State (9-0), 3:30 p.m. (ABC).
    In the title game, the Wolverines could play:
    Ohio State: A one-loss OSU team would edge a one-loss Big East champion and might edge a one-loss SEC champion. Buckeyes, beware: Texas (8-1) and Southern Cal (6-1).
    West Virginia or Louisville: The unbeaten Big East teams play Thursday night in Kentucky. The Mountaineers (7-0) are No. 3 in the BCS standings and AP rankings; the Cardinals (7-0) are No. 5 in both. If the winner runs the table, it should be New Year's in Arizona. Both still have to play unbeaten Rutgers (WVU on Dec. 2, UL on Nov. 9) and Pittsburgh (WVU on Nov. 16, UL on Nov. 25).
    Florida or Tennessee: The Gators (7-1) are No. 4 in the BCS, have beaten the Volunteers (7-1, No. 8 AP) and are on target to be the East rep in the SEC title game. A nonconference trip to Florida State, though, looms large Nov. 25. The Vols (No. 11 BCS) battle LSU and Arkansas the next 2 weeks.
    Auburn or Arkansas: The Tigers (8-1, No. 6 BCS and AP) have beaten Florida but might not be the West rep because of their loss to Arkansas (7-1, No. 13 BCS, No. 12 AP). Can Auburn reach No. 2 in the BCS without making the SEC title game? It'll be tough. Also, Alabama remains. The Razorbacks have challenges vs. South Carolina, Tennessee and LSU.
    Texas: Defending champions are 8-1 and No. 4 in AP but only No. 8 in BCS. They finish with one-loss but 21st-ranked Texas A&M and unranked Nebraska or Missouri in the Big 12 title game. Can the Longhorns move up against lesser lights?
    Southern Cal: The Trojans (6-1, No. 8 BCS, No. 9 AP) just lost to Oregon State but could sway voters and computers by beating No. 10 California, No. 11 Notre Dame and UCLA.
Yes, Ohio State is No. 1 in the country and Michigan is No. 2, and both are undefeated, and neither has really come close to losing, and they are basically two bullet trains speeding toward each other on one track, and this just might be the biggest, most anticipated, most exciting game in the history of the best rivalry in sports.
But nobody around here is thinking about that.
Really.
We swear.
"I've really been impressed watching Illinois' development," said Ohio State coach Jim Tressel, referring to his opponent this week. "Coach Zook and his staff have done an excellent job."
So far, Illinois has developed its way to a 2-7 record. Two weeks ago, Illinois couldn't even beat Ohio University, let alone Ohio State. And Ron Zook has not done an excellent job since the day he cleaned out his desk at Florida. Man, he didn't leave a single page of the playbook in that desk. It is possible that he didn't have a playbook.
Nonetheless, the Buckeyes are extremely concerned about Illinois. They haven't given much thought to That School Up North, even though Tressel has been talking up the rivalry since the day he took the job, when he promised a basketball arena full of OSU fans that they would be proud of the Buckeyes "in 310 days in Ann Arbor, Michigan," and that wasn't just a good line, because Tressel always knows exactly how many days are left until his team plays Michigan, so he surely knows The Game is in 17 days. He just isn't thinking about it.
And the Wolverines aren't thinking about it, either. Nothing against Ohio State, but first Michigan has some VERY URGENT business against another storied rival: Ball State.
True, Michigan has never actually faced Ball State before. But who needs history for a rivalry? What if Ball State accidentally leaves a water jug in Ann Arbor, and the Wolverines dare the Cardinals to come back and win it, like Minnesota did to Michigan back in 1903? Have you considered that possibility?
And if you think the Cardinals are pushovers, just because they are 3-6 and lost to Division I-AA North Dakota State, then you are obviously a know-nothing fan who has not paid nearly enough attention to Ball State's punter.
"I just watched their punter (Chris Miller) twice this morning," Michigan coach Lloyd Carr warned Monday, "where he's punting from his own 30-yard line and kicks the ball into the end zone for touchbacks. He's averaging 45 yards a kick. He's probably as fine a punter as we've seen this year, and we've seen some good ones."
If Carr can somehow tear himself away from the horrifying Halloween movie known as the "Ball State punting film," he might notice that Ohio State and Michigan dominate the Bowl Championship Series rankings.
Ohio State has a .9864 BCS average and U-M has a .9697 average. Do you know what those numbers mean? Me neither. But West Virginia is third at .7862. The gap between No. 2 Michigan and No. 3 West Virginia is much bigger than the gap between West Virginia and No. 11 Tennessee.
The gap is so big that a close OSU-Michigan game might set up a rematch for a national championship.
But nobody is worried about that.
Ohio State is worried about the indomitable Zook.
Michigan is worried about getting star receiver Mario Manningham back in the lineup. The Wolverines have averaged 30 points with Manningham and 18 without him. Naturally, they would really like to have Manningham back for the big game.
Against Ball State, of course.
Contact MICHAEL ROSENBERG at 313-222-6052 or [email protected]
 
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Link

Michigan?s success a kick for Romanian immigrant

Associated Press

ANN ARBOR, Mich. ? After lying on the floor while bullets tore through his home during the Romanian revolution, standing alone in the backfield with would-be punt blockers bearing down on him isn?t all that intimidating to Zoltan Mesko.
Not that Mesko doesn?t appreciate having a chance to contribute to one of the better Wolverines teams of recent years. The redshirt freshman is averaging 41.6 yards per punt and dropped four of his six kicks inside the 20-yard line during No. 2 Michigan?s 17-3 victory over Northwestern last weekend.
The Wolverines (9-0) step out of their Big Ten schedule this week, facing Ball State before finishing their season with road games at Indiana and No. 1 Ohio State.
Michigan?s push for a berth in the Bowl Championship Series title game puts Mesko in a role he could hardly envision as a child. He was 11 when his family learned they were among 55,000 people worldwide to be selected in a ?green card? lottery offering permanent residency in the U.S.
Eight years earlier, Mesko?s homeland was wracked by fighting between state security forces and opponents of Romania?s Communist dictator, Nicolae Ceausescu.
Mesko remembers the day in 1997 when his father walked into the living room with word that the family had been chosen to receive green cards, opening the door to a new world.
?We had to sell everything and we had six bags to bring everything we owned,? Mesko said. ?It?s basically our life in those six bags. I?m glad I?m from a different nation, but it?s a struggling nation, and so I get reminded of where I come from every day, and I?m more appreciative of where I am today.?
The family spent their first six months in America living in Queens, N.Y., then moved to Twinsburg, Ohio, a Cleveland suburb where his football career began in offbeat fashion. A natural soccer player, Mesko said he nearly knocked a light from his high school?s gymnasium ceiling, prompting his physical education teacher to introduce Mesko to the football coach.
Mesko averaged 43.6 yards a punt his senior year and caught the eye of college coaches. Michigan?s Lloyd Carr was among the first to call and offer Mesko a scholarship. An offer from Ohio State came two days later, but Mesko has never second-guessed his decision to sign with the Wolverines.
Note: Injured wide receiver Mario Manningham will begin practicing this week and could play as early as Saturday against Ball State, Carr said. Manningham has missed the last three games while recovering from knee surgery, but he is expected to return to action sometime in the final three weeks of the regular season.
 
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"Lies, damn lies, and statistics". Or at least statistics that are calculated in a foolish manner.

Red Zone offense: TSUN 90.3 %, tOSU 82.9% - so TSUN is better in the red zone, right?

Let's look a little more closely:

tOSU has 30 TDs, 28 XPs, and 4 FGs for 220 points in 41 possessions.

TSUN has 17 TDs, 17 XPs, and 11 FGs for 152 points in 31 possessions.

Thus, red zone points per possession: tOSU 5.37, TSUN 4.90 - Which number would you rather have?

This doesn't account for the number of 'failed' red zone possessions where tOSU just let the clock run out.
 
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BB73;649625; said:
"Lies, damn lies, and statistics". Or at least statistics that are calculated in a foolish manner.

Red Zone offense: TSUN 90.3 %, tOSU 82.9% - so TSUN is better in the red zone, right?

Let's look a little more closely:

tOSU has 30 TDs, 28 XPs, and 4 FGs for 220 points in 41 possessions.

TSUN has 17 TDs, 17 XPs, and 11 FGs for 152 points in 31 possessions.

Thus, red zone points per possession: tOSU 5.37, TSUN 4.90 - Which number would you rather have?

This doesn't account for the number of 'failed' red zone possessions where tOSU just let the clock run out.

Statistics is like a bikini, it reveals the interesting, but hides the significant.
 
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BB73;649625; said:
Thus, red zone points per possession: tOSU 5.37, TSUN 4.90 - Which number would you rather have?

This is why I would rather see this statistic than the percentage of times scored. A team could score field goals with every red zone opportunity, and only score 3 points on the entire season, and come away with 100%. Another team could score only half the time in the red zone, score 500+ points on the season, and average 3.5 points per red zone opportunity. The average points per red zone opportunity and total points paint a clearer picture, in my opinion.

BB73;649625; said:
This doesn't account for the number of 'failed' red zone possessions where tOSU just let the clock run out.

I don't remember Ohio State letting that happen. Maybe it was a red zone opportunity against Minnesota at the end of the half. Did they get inside the 20, and then lose yards because of penalties? Does that count as a red zone opportunity?

When else might they have been in the red zone when time ran out?
 
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Zurp;649670; said:
I don't remember Ohio State letting that happen. Maybe it was a red zone opportunity against Minnesota at the end of the half. Did they get inside the 20, and then lose yards because of penalties? Does that count as a red zone opportunity?

When else might they have been in the red zone when time ran out?

I know for sure they had one at the end of the Iowa game where they took a knee.
Not sure about any others.
I know we blew 2 red zone opps vs. NIU.
 
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BB73;649625; said:
"Lies, damn lies, and statistics". Or at least statistics that are calculated in a foolish manner.

Red Zone offense: TSUN 90.3 %, tOSU 82.9% - so TSUN is better in the red zone, right?

Let's look a little more closely:

tOSU has 30 TDs, 28 XPs, and 4 FGs for 220 points in 41 possessions.

TSUN has 17 TDs, 17 XPs, and 11 FGs for 152 points in 31 possessions.

Thus, red zone points per possession: tOSU 5.37, TSUN 4.90 - Which number would you rather have?

This doesn't account for the number of 'failed' red zone possessions where tOSU just let the clock run out.

Another way of looking at it:

TD efficiency in red zone:

Ohio State - 73.2% (30 for 41)
Michigan - 54.8% (17 for 31)

We score a TD nearly 3/4 of the time once we get inside the red zone while Michigan scores a TD barely half the time. Also, I'd imagine our red zone offense has improved over the season, while I'm not so sure that Michigan's has, so Michigan's edge may not be what the season stats suggest. Plus that fact that Michigan hasn't scored more than two TDs in any of its last three games doesn't bode well for their offensive efficiency...
 
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Chad henne....Lloyd Christmas??

this was posted on a PSu message board before the michigan game and from what i hear State students put up posters of this all around campus :)


HENNE_CHAD_2005_J150.JPG
carrey_dumber.jpg

i might make this into a shirt and/or for a sign on gameday for mich. week
 
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Tacking on to what I posted above...our offense is peaking in the second half of the season just like last year. After only two TDs in the PSU game (caused by extremely rainy conditions), we've averaged 40 ppg (OK, 39.8 ppg) over our last five games, including an even 41 ppg against four conference opponents. Conversely, Michigan is averaging 22.6 ppg over the same period (all five games were conference games). On the defensive side, we've allowed 6.8 ppg over those five games (and only 4.25 ppg over the last four), while Michigan has allowed 9.2 ppg over the same period (and 8.0 ppg over the last four).

In summary, over the last five games we're allowing a FG less per game on defense while scoring almost three TDs more on offense. Average scores over that stretch (rounded to nearest point):

Ohio State 40, Opponents 7
Michigan 23, Opponents 9

I think I know who has the advantage going into the home stretch...
 
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kochacola;649721; said:
this was posted on a PSu message board before the michigan game and from what i hear State students put up posters of this all around campus :)


HENNE_CHAD_2005_J150.JPG
carrey_dumber.jpg

i might make this into a shirt and/or for a sign on gameday for mich. week

"I got robbed by a sweet old lady on a motorized cart. I didn't even see it comin'."
 
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