Game Thread THE GAME: #1 Ohio State 42, #2 Michigan 39 (11/18/06)

[Zurp]

Mili - I understand your point: Ohio State is doing this well over the last X games and Michigan is doing this well over the same stretch.

That's all fine and all, but that's not necessarily being fair. I'd be interested in who Michigan played in those five games. I don't have Michigan's schedule memorized, but I know that they played Penn State in that stretch - a team that you left out of Ohio State's range of games. I know that they both played Iowa and Michigan State in there, and I believe that Ohio State won both games by higher margins of victory. Of course, Ohio State also played Bowling Green, Indiana, and Minnesota. Who else did Michigan play in that stretch?

My point is that there's a chance that Michigan had a tougher schedule than Ohio State did, and comparing the stats may not be telling any stories that mean anything.

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

That's all fine and all, but that's not necessarily being fair. I'd be interested in who Michigan played in those five games. I don't have Michigan's schedule memorized, but I know that they played Penn State in that stretch - a team that you left out of Ohio State's range of games.

If you read my whole post, you'd see that I noted that I started after Penn State because of the extremely rainy conditions during the PSU game. Michigan didn't play in those weather conditions at Penn State. Besides, my main point was that we're improving from the middle if the season on (just like last year), and since PSU was game four (and very rainy) I didn't include it. I also wanted to show that Michigan is not improving offensively as the season progresses, and actually I can argue that they've digressed.

 

[Zurp]

If you read my whole post, you'd see that I noted that I started after Penn State because of the extremely rainy conditions during the PSU game. Michigan didn't play in those weather conditions at Penn State. Besides, my main point was that we're improving from the middle if the season on (just like last year), and since PSU was game four (and very rainy) I didn't include it. I also wanted to show that Michigan is not improving offensively as the season progresses, and actually I can argue that they've digressed.

I read your whole post, and I saw that you left Penn State out of the range for Ohio State because of the rainy conditions. That's absolutely fine with me. And I also got your point that Ohio State has been playing extremely well since that game. (Anyone who's watched the games would have gotten that opinion, by now.)

But my point remains that Michigan MAY have a tougher schedule in that 5-game range than Ohio State does. I also pointed out that I don't know Michigan's schedule. Maybe it's actually easier than Ohio State's. The only thing that I do know about Michigan's schedule in those games is that they played Iowa and Michigan State (as did Ohio State), and that they also played Penn State (Ohio State did not).

From the little that I've seen of Michigan this year, I would agree that they do not look half as good as Ohio State does. If they don't have their "Pass-deep-to-Mario-Manningham" play, they appear to struggle playing real offense. Their defense appears to be very dominant, but I think that screen passes and Troy Smith's escapability (I love that word) can cause serious problems to Michigan.

 

[lvbuckeye]

looking at common opponents, Ohio State has won those 4 games by 118 points, or 29.5 PPG. M has won those 4 games by 54 points, or 13.5 PPG


average score: Ohio State 32, opponents 7.5
average score: M 24, opponents 10.75

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

But my point remains that Michigan MAY have a tougher schedule in that 5-game range than Ohio State does. I also pointed out that I don't know Michigan's schedule. Maybe it's actually easier than Ohio State's. The only thing that I do know about Michigan's schedule in those games is that they played Iowa and Michigan State (as did Ohio State), and that they also played Penn State (Ohio State did not).

So, let me synopsize your inputs:

1. Michigan may have had a tougher schedule during those five games
2. Michigan may have had a easier schedule during those five games
3. You don't know Michigan's schedule

Then why even reply?

 

[Zurp]

So, let me synopsize your inputs:

1. Michigan may have had a tougher schedule during those five games
2. Michigan may have had a easier schedule during those five games
3. You don't know Michigan's schedule

Then why even reply?

I'm sure there's a reason. But neither of us is really interested enough to know what it is.

 

[JXC]

Michigan is getting better on defense. Their defense shows up every week, and plays amazing football. You'd think with a defense like that the offense would score more points just because of getting more possessions and better field position...but...


Michigan isn't improving on the offensive side...17 points at Penn State at night...fine that's understandable. It's a tough place to play against a good defense. But the offense looked like crap at home against an okay but not amazing Iowa defense, and then struggled all day against one of the crappiest defenses in the Big 10 in Northwestern...and that was at home. Coming into the game last week, Northwestern had given up 30+ points to every team they had played except two. Miami and Eastern Michigan...both having 1 win all season. These are two of the worst offensive teams in the country. Even Nevada put up 30 on Northwestern. Even worse...all 3 scores for Michigan were on short fields. They never drove the field. Chad Henne 10/20 for 116 yards?

They are getting worse...and at that, it's not like they were great with MM in there. They still stunk. They only had put up over 30 points in 3 games. There were defensive scores in the Centeral Michigan and Notre Dame games (those 47 points agasint ND weren't because of offense). Plus we know that Notre Dame has no defense anyway...Michigan only had 340 yards of offense that game, it's not like the torched Notre Dame. And they put up 31 against Michigan State...not bad at home where you gain only 39 more yards than MSU. How many more did we gain than MSU? Oh yeah 223.

Even when their offense was impressive early in the year...it wasn't. They've never been great of offense...they were good at times, but now they've gone backwards and are okay at times and bad at others.

I don't care if you don't have your best WR or not...if all you have on offense is one good WR you aren't going to beat Ohio State.

Defense is enough to keep you in games though. They are a backwards West Virginia. But the difference between Michigan and Ohio State is this...they only have one strength...defense, mainly their front 7. We have 44 strengths...and that's our two deep. Our defense is starting to play as good as theirs...and our offense keeps rolling while their whole offense shouldn't even be allowed on the same field as Troy Smith.

 

[DaddyBigBucks]

...
I don't remember Ohio State letting that happen. Maybe it was a red zone opportunity against Minnesota at the end of the half. Did they get inside the 20, and then lose yards because of penalties? Does that count as a red zone opportunity?

When else might they have been in the red zone when time ran out?

It definitely happened at Iowa.

Our missed opportunities in the red zone according to the official Big Ten site:

• One missed field goal - first attempt of the season
• Two fumbles
• One possession ended on downs - mercy concession to BGSU in 4th qtr
• Three listed as "other" - I'm guessing these are possessions that ended with the expiration of the clock, 1st half or game.

One final point: OSU has had 5 FG attempts from the red zone. Michigan has had 12.

 

[BB73]

It definitely happened at Iowa.

Our missed opportunities in the red zone according to the official Big Ten site:

• One missed field goal - first attempt of the season
• Two fumbles
• One possession ended on downs - mercy concession to BGSU in 4th qtr
• Three listed as "other" - I'm guessing these are possessions that ended with the expiration of the clock, 1st half or game.

One final point: OSU has had 5 FG attempts from the red zone. Michigan has had 12.

The clock ran out in the red zone at the end of the Iowa and Indiana games. The third 'other' would be the end of the first half on Saturday, where the 15-yard hands-to-the-facemask penalty effectively ended the scoring threat.

 

[CookyPuss]

Defense is enough to keep you in games though. They are a backwards West Virginia. But the difference between Michigan and Ohio State is this...they only have one strength...defense, mainly their front 7. We have 44 strengths...and that's our two deep. Our defense is starting to play as good as theirs...and our offense keeps rolling while their whole offense shouldn't even be allowed on the same field as Troy Smith.

Exactly, and I am tired of hearing about how they "shut down" NW's running game last week. First, I didnt know they had a running game. Second, they certainly didn't try to use it if they did. I did not see all of the game, but the bit I watched, I saw a whole lot of passing by NW. I think they passed more than 40 times and ran less than 20 on a windy, nasty day. The run was not really in their game plan.

In fact, looking back over some box scores, I see that only a 3 Big Ten teams have ran the ball more than 20 times against TSUN this year: Minny, Wisky, and MSU. Penn State did not unless you count the sacks as "rushing attempts". Two of those 3 teams put up decent numbers, Minny got nearly 100 yards and MSU had over 50 rushing yards and 2 rushing TDs. They did limit Hill to 54, which is impressive. My point is that teams that have stuck with the run have done alright. Tressel will not abandon the run. Furthermore, our O should be able to stretch things to open up running lanes.

Does TSUN have a dominant run D? Yes. Can tOSU run on them? I think the answer is also YES.

I think the key difference between tOSU and TSUN's opponents to date is our ability to convert long 3rd downs. Their pass rush may be able to get after Troy a few times, but they will not be able to maul him the way they have other QBs. Converting those 3rd and 8, 2nd and 12 situations is what allows you to run the ball a few more times and break open those longer runs. I think Beanie could be a real differnce maker in this game and that is why Tressel is so intent on continuing to develop him despite the fumbles.

I see us putting up at least 80 rushing yards from the tailbacks and 1-2 rushing TDs in this game.

Go Bucks! :osu:

 

[ytownbuckeye]

still hate tsun!!!...fuck em....no doubt we win nov 18th

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

It definitely happened at Iowa.

Our missed opportunities in the red zone according to the official Big Ten site:

• One missed field goal - first attempt of the season
• Two fumbles
• One possession ended on downs - mercy concession to BGSU in 4th qtr
• Three listed as "other" - I'm guessing these are possessions that ended with the expiration of the clock, 1st half or game.

One final point: OSU has had 5 FG attempts from the red zone. Michigan has had 12.

The clock ran out in the red zone at the end of the Iowa and Indiana games. The third 'other' would be the end of the first half on Saturday, where the 15-yard hands-to-the-facemask penalty effectively ended the scoring threat.

So, if those stats are right, of the seven red zone possessions in which we failed to score, only one was a result of the opposition stopping us (the missed FG). Of the remaining, three were us shooting ourselves in the foot (two fumbles, hands-to-the-facemask penalty) and three mercy runouts. Bottom line: Only once in 41 red zone possessions did an opponent keep us from scoring on their own efforts.

 

[JXC]

If we can run the ball against Michigan...we will win. We will be able to pass, but if are sucessful with the run too, then we'll have our way with them.

If we can stop the run against Michigan...we will win. There is no way they can just pass the ball without running and win against us. Our secondary is too good, eventually Henne would throw some picks.

So the third scenerio is that they are able to run the ball on us, and that we can't stop their run...if this is the case, then Troy Smith will need to be the hero once again...which he is VERY capable of doing.

That's where I see it right now. And right now I don't think Michigan looks that good running the ball. Hart is overrated. Thier o-line is overrated. I'd take our running game over theirs on anyday. I'd take their rush defense over ours though. We get a good amount of sacks and TFLs...but they do it even better. Overall though, our defense is quickly catching up to theirs. Different types of defenses, but both give up very few points and yards. But on Nov 18th...their defense is going to have it's hands full...and well as it looks right now, ours won't.

 

[ytownbuckeye]

texas all over again...put hall on ginn and then what? who covers gonzo? who covers robiskie?

 

[Best Buckeye]

In 1955 the Buckswon the Big Ten championship with a 7-2 record; set an attendance record of 490,477; and won in Ann Arbor for the first time in 18 years with a 17-0 shutout in which Michigan crossed the 50-yard line only once, on a penalty. Ohio State passed only three times in the game; the sole reception was the only completion in the final three games of the year, leading to characterization of Hayes' style of offensive play as "three yards and a cloud of dust".

Thus was born a reputaion against Mich.