I ask, has anyone even defined how we are measuring relevance?
With the new playoff system, I think it is simply defined by earning one of four spots in the playoffs. After Week 2, that looked awfully bleak for the B1G but now it is an outside possibility after the chaos last week. Whether a B1G team goes undefeated from here on out remains to be seen but I think if either MSU or Ohio State does, there is a strong possibility we get one team in regardless of how the one loss (Oregon or VT) is perceived. Here is why (buckle up):
1) The Pac 12 is basically out: Only Arizona is still undefeated and no way that sticks...I see at least two losses there. UCLA has now lost two games, Oregon has lost one and will lose another with their freshman OL, Stanford has lost two games, USC has lost two games, and nobody else in the conference with one loss would get in (likely two losses all around anyways). Everyone assumed at least one team from the Pac 12 would make it but that does not look so likely now.
2) Notre Dame looks far from invincible and the rest of the schedule is not kind: They play FSU in a couple weeks, Navy, Northwestern, Louisville, and USC...that could easily transpire into two losses and even if it is one, it is not conceivable for the B1G to leapfrog them if ND looks bad in a loss and the B1G team making it finishes very strong.
3) The SEC will cannibalize itself: Let's start with the caveat that we all know at least 1 SEC team will get in. Well, they are starting to have chaos unleash and it is looking likely that a single one-loss team could be unlikely. One of Auburn/Miss. St. will go down in their matchup this week and Ole Miss could very well lose to A&M this week. All the undefeated teams are all in the SEC West and that is going to be absolute murder's row from here on out. At best, there might be one SEC undefeated team come conference championship time and even that looks EXTREMELY unlikely. In the SEC East, it is quite likely all teams will have 2 losses by that time. I could very well see a scenario where all but one SEC team has two losses after the championship game...it's even very feasible to have every SEC team with 2 losses and only the champion makes it in.
4) The non-power conference teams have all lost: ECU, BYU, MAC/Conference USA/MWC/etc. darkhorse teams all have a loss. Simply put, they are likely all out of the picture.
5) The likelihood of the winner of the Ohio State vs. MSU game running the table: Obviously I hope we are the team that comes out alive, but regardless I think it is way more likely for a one-loss MSU or OSU team to run the table and sneak in the playoffs.
6) Florida State has not impressed: Until this week (against Wake Forest mind you), FSU has squeaked by mediocre-to-pitiful opponents. Not only have voters not been impressed, they still have to get through ND, Louisville, Virginia, Miami, Boston College, and Florida. While apart from ND that does not seem like much, almost every one of those teams has quality wins and many are better teams than what FSU has faced thus far. I would not be shocked to see a one-loss B1G team jump a one-loss FSU team...hell, this might be a two-loss FSU team if they do not improve.
7) Oklahoma went down: I still think OU is the best the Big 12 has to offer. After the Baylor-TCU matchup, only one team will be undefeated in the Big 12. Whoever emerges from that game has a long schedule to go and again, the conference seems much more prone to cannibalize itself into two losses than the B1G.
8) Not every one of these scenarios needs to happen and we are only halfway through the season: While there are many "ifs" (albeit likely ones imo), not all of the preceding scenarios is necessary. In fact, assuming there is a one-less B1G team (I really think there will be), it seems more likely than not that enough will happen to get one team in. The non-power conference teams are out except ND. The Pac 12 is all but out. That leaves four power conferences viable and aside from the ACC, the others are deep enough to knock each other out for the most part. Obviously there is a LONG way to go but I thought this talk would not be relevant until mid-September...usually the chaos does not happen until November. Since there are so many losses so early though, I think that enables OSU or MSU to get in if they finish the season strong while everyone else keeps adding to the L category.
