Game Thread Southern Cal 18, at tOSU 15 (Sept 12th, 8 pm, ESPN)

[OregonBuckeye]

Where am I getting that? lol

I've watched my fair share of USC games the past couple of years, and they never fair that well against mobile QB's. Their defense isnt set up to stop a mobile QB on a good team.

But since I'm bad at describing things like this then I'll let a article from a few years ago support my argument:

Pete Carroll has lost just 10 games in five-plus seasons, but if a common thread exists within those few losses, maybe this is it:

Half of them came to quarterbacks Carlyle Holiday of Notre Dame, Ell Roberson of Kansas State (twice), Reggie Robertson of California and Vince Youngof Texas. They were all mobile quarterbacks who could turn a broken-down play into a positive result with their speed and quickness.

``There's definitely a trend there,'' Carroll said. ``There's a reason for it, too. Those are the type of quarterbacks that give defenses problems.''

Carroll obviously agrees with me
Also when Pryor came in last year you could see the potential for him to give them fits. With a year under his belt he will be even better.

Everyone agrees with that. A QB who can run and throw is harder to stop than a QB who can just throw.

But you said you don't even think USC is even in the top 15 for best defenses at stopping dual-threat QB's. I don't see the basis for that. Can you name 15 defenses who have been better? 10?

And what do you mean by their defense isn't set up to stop a mobile QB?

BTW, USC ape-fucked Carlyle Holliday and ND in 2002.

 

[NextBuck]

Everyone agrees with that. A QB who can run and throw is harder to stop than a QB who can just throw.

But you said you don't even think USC is even in the top 15 for best defenses at stopping dual-threat QB's. I don't see the basis for that. Can you name 15 defenses who have been better? 10?

And what do you mean by their defense isn't set up to stop a mobile QB?

BTW, USC ape-[censored]ed Carlyle Holliday and ND in 2002.

I'm really not good at explaining schemes for multiple games, but I'll just say that when I watched USC vs Texas, Ohio State, Oregon, and Washington their defense isnt nearly as dominant as it was vs non-mobile QB's. This is true for most defenses, but I see a major change with USC that I dont see as much with teams like Bama, LSU, UF, etc.

I mean look at OSU last year. The difference between Boeckman and Pryor were night and day vs USC defense. Now while it wasnt good enough to win the game, the problem was the defense last year and not the offense.

They run a 4-3 defense with a elephant hybrid linebacker and a lot of cover-2. They don't allow a lot of large plays, but if the mobile QB can get away from whoever Carroll sends on the blitz then he has space for a 10-12 yard run. Most likely it will be Mays and Nick Perry this year. The cover-2 will prevent a lot of deep plays, but short runs and passes will work well for a mobile QB.

I'm not sure with a young LB group, a unproven dline, and a hostile environment will help. A new DC, a new OC, etc.

But back to the point. I've seen USC in recent years not be able to prepare as well as they would like for mobile QBs. The problem is there with many teams, but I think if you get good blocking that a good QB can get a lot of easy 5 yard pick ups on USC.

 

[methomps]

So in the last two years there has only been five close games and USC has a 60% winning percentage. When you apply a confidence interval for five trials (Binomial proportion confidence interval - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia ) you have nearly a 50% confidence. The verdict is still out at five and two and in any case, it represents a chink in the armour. My thoughs come from watching Cal and Stanford win in close games. I also use the OSU 2002 season as a benchmarch where OSU was something like 14-0 in close games

There is something about SC that I am trying to articulate but I am probably doing a poor job of it. There is some reason that low level PAC-10 school can beat SC when they appear to be giant killers all other weeks. In my mind, I attribute it to heart and conditioning. SC seems to scheme to beat teams which works very well in most cases (i.e. pass to fullback to score a touchdown). They seem deadly at the beggining of the game and the half, much like Cooper always scoring touchdowns on a the first series of scripted plays. However, if the scheme can be solved (i.e. PAC-10 teams with familiarity) then they loose their decided schematic advantage. There is no reason for a team as talented as SC to ever loose to Stanford, therefore I question their heart.

OSU has a physical gameplan that does a very efficient job of beating lesser opponents. By the fourth quarter the NIU's of the world are spent. OSU limits mistakes and forces a team to beat them. I like the good guys in a close game at night. Ohio in September is muggy and very different than the costal Cali weather. The crowd would be racous and the adreinaline pumping. I think OSU wins in a close game. I could believe that SC comes in and blows us away. I could also believe that OSU might never take the foot off the gas and returns the favor. Tressel has released the dogs on Northwestern every year for some reason or another (re: dirty play). I think SC embarassed OSU last year. The left the starters in for a long time and only once the deluge was stopped did Petey pull them out. I wouldn't be surprised if that puts SC into the "special treatment" catagory, if such a situation arises.

To put some numbers out
SC wins in blowout - 30%
SC wins close game - 10%
OSU wins in close game - 40%
OSU wins in blowout - 20%

OSU is 4-2 in similar games in the last 2 years, so I guess the jury is even more out as to whether OSU can win a close game.

As for SC not having heart, even the losses cast doubt on this. SC has not lost by more than one score since Carroll's first year despite facing these deficits:

down 21-0 at Oregon State in 2008
down 24-10 at Oregon in 2007
down 33-10 at Oregon State in 2006
down 21-3 at Arizona State in 2005
down 28-17 at Stanford in 2004
down 21-7 at Cal in 2003

 

[Buckeyefrankmp]

BTW, USC ape-fucked Carlyle Holliday and ND in 2002.

That's great. We won the NC in 2002. Don't live in the past.

 

[methomps]

That's great. We won the NC in 2002. Don't live in the past.

OregonBuckeye was, I think, responding to NextBuck's explicit mention of Carlyle Holiday.

Half of them came to quarterbacks Carlyle Holiday of Notre Dame, Ell Roberson of Kansas State (twice), Reggie Robertson of California and Vince Young of Texas.

BTW, USC ape-[censored]ed Carlyle Holliday and ND in 2002.

 

[BUCKYLE]

OSU is 4-2 in similar games in the last 2 years, so I guess the jury is even more out as to whether OSU can win a close game.

As for SC not having heart, even the losses cast doubt on this. SC has not lost by more than one score since Carroll's first year despite facing these deficits:

down 21-0 at Oregon State in 2008
down 24-10 at Oregon in 2007
down 33-10 at Oregon State in 2006
down 21-3 at Arizona State in 2005
down 28-17 at Stanford in 2004
down 21-7 at Cal in 2003
Your coach is pathetic!

You motherfucker.

 

[generaladm]

This game will technically be a rematch, but we will see two very different teams in this year's matchup. Gone are all but one of the All-Americans from the LA leg, and it's likely that the Columbus contest will help propel some newer faces to national honors. While there has been much turnover at the skill positions for both teams, I think the most profound change will be seen where it matters most, on the line of scrimmage.

I expect the biggest difference to be OSU's D-line. Last fall, our line was almost completely ineffective for the first half of the season, and most notably against the Trojans. Sanchez was never really in danger, and run blockers were able to hit our LBs with a full head of steam. There are not a ton of new faces along our D-line, but the ones who return were much different players by the end of the season. At DT, I don't see Worthington being a dominating presence, but he is experienced, and I think he plays his assignments well. I'm looking for big things from Larimore and Denlinger. Both have the potential to be the space-eating, double-team-drawing force that was sorely missed last time. They can really open up space for the more athletic linemen, and the LBs. I expect Heyward to split time between DT and DE, and be effective at both. A solid contribution from Goebel would give us a hearty rotation.

A healthy Wilson, and a more seasoned Gibson give us a set of bookends that can make plays, and provide solid contain on the edges. Using Thad as a Leo at times gives us the versatility to drop in a zone, and perhaps bring blitzes from the back 7. Heyward should see some time on the edge, and hopefully Rose can stay healthy and make a name for himself; both are experienced enough to be trusted in most situations. Williams and Thomas I see mostly on passing downs, where they can make some noise. Wells is a bit of an uncertainty, but Mobley could be ready for some spot action, and Fellows or Simon could see some time, if they impress in camp.

That's a lot of hogs to throw at an inexperienced QB. As long as the front 4 can keep USC's run blocking under control, and put pressure on the QB, it will give the backfield much more freedom than they had last year. The LBs and DBs should be more concerned with their marks, not making up for the line's weaknesses. Having the confidence to let the line take care of business will really help the back 7 cover the middle of the field, as well as sniffing out play-action, and covering receivers out of the backfield, especially Havili. Even though I've gleaned that USC's O-line will have no drop off from the last game, I expect the performance of our front 4 to be like night and day.

 

[SoCal]

Don't really buy the "USC plays with no heart- look, they lost to OreSt.,Stanford,etc... argument" or that there is some kind of trend when it comes to close games.

Nobody told Florida they had no heart after losing to Ole Miss, or to Michigan after losing to App. State (oh wait, never mind...)

Point being, every team loses games they should have won from time to time, and I think it's ludicrous to try to point to a handful of close losses and say that it indicates some kind of a trend. I think it's more telling that we haven't lost a game in the past 7 years by more than a touchdown...

I think if the game is close in the 4th quarter, it'll come down to which QB is the better leader. I would be hugely impressed by Corp if he can take over the game in the 4th, against an improved D and an extremely hostile and noisy crowd.

If Pryor ends up pulling a Vince Young on us, I will just throw up and probably break my TV.

But when all is said and done, I think as long as it's a close game, a loss for either team will be forgiven in the long run. It's at the beginning of the season for one, and I don't see too many other elite teams with anything close to a comparable OOC loss. Maybe Oklahoma with BYU, but thats about it. A one-loss USC or OSU would almost have to be in the NC picture at the end of the year.

 

[Buckeyeskickbuttocks]

When you lose to a 41 point dog (using a High School Jr. at QB) by 7 points or less....

.. umm...

Let's just say I'm not particularly moved by the "Well, it was close" defense.

I agree that upsets happen, and I also agree that people can tend to draw overreaching conclusions based on them. What I know is this - when USC suits up to play against a "big time" team (real or perceived) they come ready to play. What I saw last year v. OSU was a goddamned machine. I expect the same in the Shoe.

 

[Buckeyefrankmp]

OregonBuckeye was, I think, responding to NextBuck's explicit mention of Carlyle Holiday.

My fault. I thought that comment went with the USC defense not being able to stop a mobile QB. Sorry.

 

[BB73]

So in the last two years there has only been five close games and USC has a 60% winning percentage. When you apply a confidence interval for five trials (Binomial proportion confidence interval - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia ) you have nearly a 50% confidence. The verdict is still out at five and two and in any case, it represents a chink in the armour.

I may not know what a binomial proportion confidence interval is (and I won't even bother to ckick on that link), but I do know this much high-level math:

5 + 2 = 7

A 5-2 record is 71.4%, not 60%.

 

[smithlabs]

I may not know what a binomial proportion confidence interval is (and I won't even bother to ckick on that link), but I do know this much high-level math:

5 + 2 = 7

A 5-2 record is 71.4%, not 60%.

damn new math. The point is still the same. Got to go back to building rockets.

 

[Buckeyeskickbuttocks]

damn new math. The point is still the same. Got to go back to building rockets.

Building rockets? So... you look at porn for a living?

 

[smithlabs]

Building rockets? So... you look at porn for a living?

I am glad you respect my "manhood" so much.

 

[smithlabs]

down 21-0 at Oregon State in 2008
down 24-10 at Oregon in 2007
down 33-10 at Oregon State in 2006
down 21-3 at Arizona State in 2005
down 28-17 at Stanford in 2004
down 21-7 at Cal in 2003

The only game I remember from this list was the 2005 ASU game. SC was pathetic in the first half. It looked like they were waiting until half time for the coach to make adjustments. This game sticks out in my mind as an example of players lacking heart and coaches winning with schemes (instead of people). Also, there was a little issue about questionable hits and QB concusions that affected the outcome of the game.

Do you notice something about this list? It is all conference games. The media dubs SC as a team that plays great in big games. I think SC has tells and tendencies that can be exploited. I think OSU will do a considerably better job of exploiting these tendencies this year because of the addition familiarity.