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Game Thread Southern Cal 18, at tOSU 15 (Sept 12th, 8 pm, ESPN)

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troy#1;1486488; said:
I dont think the pass rush will have a drop off at all. Actually, I think it will be better than last year.
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I agree with this, particularly.given the tackle situation for osu. The ideal lineup will feature two pups -adams, shugarts- making their third start. The alternative is a couple of guys not suited for the position.
Everyone seems to think that SC 's LBers will be hard to replace, but I think people will be VERY surprised at the new group. The D will be more solid than expected IMO.
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even the departed group had their growing pains, as talented as they were. Fresno state had far too much success offensively, and vince torched that d. Now Terrelle has a ways to go to reach vy's level of play, but the potential and athleticism is certainly there.

A young defense that will not be as comfortable in their assignments will now be forced to keep an eye on tp at all times.
My game prediction is a great game that should be closer AND better than last year. No way I will try and predict a score! Just a good, injury free game.
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Your mascot will try to plant his sword, assuming TBDBITL will allow it. Instead he will be trampled, with the drum major leaning back to touch his carcass instead of the grass.
 
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jwinslow;1486511; said:
I agree with this, particularly.given the tackle situation for osu. The ideal lineup will feature two pups -adams, shugarts- making their third start. The alternative is a couple of guys not suited for the position. even the departed group had their growing pains, as talented as they were. Fresno state had far too much success offensively, and vince torched that d. Now Terrelle has a ways to go to reach vy's level of play, but the potential and athleticism is certainly there.

A young defense that will not be as comfortable in their assignments will now be forced to keep an eye on tp at all times.

Your mascot will try to plant his sword, assuming TBDBITL will allow it. Instead he will be trampled, with the drum major leaning back to touch his carcass instead of the grass.
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The only thing I disagree with is your comment on fresno st. Last years d players were freshman when they played fresno st. and when SC played texas that d had alot of injuries and had some players on the field that shouldnt have been there.
 
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As dumb as Saine running the wildcat was, it at least got the conversation started.

When OSU is on offense -

The threat of TP running will force SC to move their ends out and create running room between the tackles. If the Bucks can run between the tackles look for play actions and a bomb in the first couple of series. There will be several areas of improvement this year. The RB's will be healthy and seasoned. The RB's should be more effective at running and picking up blitzes. TP will have the knowledge to audible to better plays so there should not be as many "hopeless" plays run where the play had no chance from the start. TP will be better at throwing the intermediate routes that should slow down the blitzes and force legitimate coverage. Also, there was the promised use of the TE in offense to throw over a team crowding the line of scrimmage. The use of the TE should force the D to either defend TP's legs or the TE. The coaching staff seems against option plays that run lateral to the line of scrimmage but not against designed qb runs conceptually. With the improvement in TP and the RB's I would expect to see more pages of the play book than last year.

When OSU is on defense. Expect OSU to play zone and try to get pressure with their frount four. SC will want to score early and put the game out of reach. They will be very aggressive in play calling and formations to start the game. The first couple of series will be heavily scripted so expect to see a wide varity of plays and sets. Hopefully, OSU will be aggressive early on D and not allow SC to run their plays at will against the base defense. Most of the variations in the OSU defense will come at LB. The LB personall can provide anything from and extra DE to an extra safety. The agressiveness of the defense will be determined by the growth of the DB's in fall camp. I doubt that Navy will provide any real test for OSU's DB's.

The game - As mentioned SC will try to put the game away early. OSU must keep the game within reach in the first half. They need to keep the crowd involved and keep the running game going. Watch for SC to come out swinging to open the second half as well. If the game is within seven half way through the 3rd quarter I feel OSU will win. SC has problems winning close games, especially against teams that can run. I feel, like Cooper teams from the 80's, they lack a certain toughness to play all four quarters. Unlike last year, I think OSU can put up points through the air and can come back from behind. If the crowd stays in it, TP has the heart, tools and perhaps, the experience to mount a comeback.
 
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smithlabs;1486692; said:
The game - As mentioned SC will try to put the game away early. OSU must keep the game within reach in the first half. They need to keep the crowd involved and keep the running game going. Watch for SC to come out swinging to open the second half as well. If the game is within seven half way through the 3rd quarter I feel OSU will win. SC has problems winning close games, especially against teams that can run. I feel, like Cooper teams from the 80's, they lack a certain toughness to play all four quarters. Unlike last year, I think OSU can put up points through the air and can come back from behind. If the crowd stays in it, TP has the heart, tools and perhaps, the experience to mount a comeback.
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How so? USC is 5-2 in the last two years in games that were within one seven going into the 4th quarter.
 
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I'm interested to see Pete Carroll's gameplan for Terrelle Pryor. Everyone knows that USC's defense always has trouble with mobile QBs and besides Vince Young he has never faced a mobile QB this talented. The focus will probably to have TP stay in the pocket and throw. Just complete short passes and he'll be good.
 
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methomps;1486711; said:
How so? USC is 5-2 in the last two years in games that were within one seven going into the 4th quarter.
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So in the last two years there has only been five close games and USC has a 60% winning percentage. When you apply a confidence interval for five trials (Binomial proportion confidence interval - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia ) you have nearly a 50% confidence. The verdict is still out at five and two and in any case, it represents a chink in the armour. My thoughs come from watching Cal and Stanford win in close games. I also use the OSU 2002 season as a benchmarch where OSU was something like 14-0 in close games:biggrin:

There is something about SC that I am trying to articulate but I am probably doing a poor job of it. There is some reason that low level PAC-10 school can beat SC when they appear to be giant killers all other weeks. In my mind, I attribute it to heart and conditioning. SC seems to scheme to beat teams which works very well in most cases (i.e. pass to fullback to score a touchdown). They seem deadly at the beggining of the game and the half, much like Cooper always scoring touchdowns on a the first series of scripted plays. However, if the scheme can be solved (i.e. PAC-10 teams with familiarity) then they loose their decided schematic advantage. There is no reason for a team as talented as SC to ever loose to Stanford, therefore I question their heart.

OSU has a physical gameplan that does a very efficient job of beating lesser opponents. By the fourth quarter the NIU's of the world are spent. OSU limits mistakes and forces a team to beat them. I like the good guys in a close game at night. Ohio in September is muggy and very different than the costal Cali weather. The crowd would be racous and the adreinaline pumping. I think OSU wins in a close game. I could believe that SC comes in and blows us away. I could also believe that OSU might never take the foot off the gas and returns the favor. Tressel has released the dogs on Northwestern every year for some reason or another (re: dirty play). I think SC embarassed OSU last year. The left the starters in for a long time and only once the deluge was stopped did Petey pull them out. I wouldn't be surprised if that puts SC into the "special treatment" catagory, if such a situation arises.

To put some numbers out
SC wins in blowout - 30%
SC wins close game - 10%
OSU wins in close game - 40%
OSU wins in blowout - 20%
 
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Buckeneye;1486769; said:
I'd say damn near every defense has trouble with mobile QB's, believe me its not just USC.
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Well considering USC's top notch recent defenses you would assume they would be pretty good against mobile QB's. The truth is that USC's defense probably isnt even in the Top 15 when it comes to stopping mobile QB's, while their defense vs. everyone else is probably top 5.
 
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NextBuck;1486772; said:
Well considering USC's top notch recent defenses you would assume they would be pretty good against mobile QB's. The truth is that USC's defense probably isnt even in the Top 15 when it comes to stopping mobile QB's, while their defense vs. everyone else is probably top 5.
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Not sure where you're getting that. The only mobile QB's to have success recently were Dennis Dixon(the Heisman front-runner before his injury) and Vince Young(the Heisman runner-up). They've played great against guys like Locker, Masoli, and Juice Williams.
 
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OregonBuckeye;1486776; said:
Not sure where you're getting that. The only mobile QB's to have success recently were Dennis Dixon(the Heisman front-runner before his injury) and Vince Young(the Heisman runner-up). They've played great against guys like Locker, Masoli, and Juice Williams.
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Where am I getting that? lol

I've watched my fair share of USC games the past couple of years, and they never fair that well against mobile QB's. Their defense isnt set up to stop a mobile QB on a good team.

But since I'm bad at describing things like this then I'll let a article from a few years ago support my argument:

Pete Carroll has lost just 10 games in five-plus seasons, but if a common thread exists within those few losses, maybe this is it:

Half of them came to quarterbacks Carlyle Holiday of Notre Dame, Ell Roberson of Kansas State (twice), Reggie Robertson of California and Vince Young of Texas. They were all mobile quarterbacks who could turn a broken-down play into a positive result with their speed and quickness.

``There's definitely a trend there,'' Carroll said. ``There's a reason for it, too. Those are the type of quarterbacks that give defenses problems.''
Carroll obviously agrees with me :biggrin:
Also when Pryor came in last year you could see the potential for him to give them fits. With a year under his belt he will be even better.
 
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The offense seemed to show life when TP was under center last year...in his 3rd game. With them allowing him to pass more this year along with the added experience and an offense designed around his talents, offense isn't what concerns me in this game.
 
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