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Losing Early, Now What Needs to Happen - 2010 Chaos Theory

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SloopyHangOn;1806553; said:
The last real shot to take out Oregon is Arizona.
This weekend has been very good for Ohio State's chances to make it to a BCS bowl game. Something EXTREMELY out of the ordinary is going to have to happen for us to sneak into the title picture again. Bucky needs to lose a shocker, Boise needs to lose a shocker (Notre Dame, maybe?) and TCU needs to lose a shocker.
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Good post overall.

Oregon has three tough games left. @Cal (possible sleeper game) Ariz, @ Oreg St.(Civil War)

Auburn could lose the sleeper game to Georgia and also get beat by Alabama.
LSU could still lose to Ark.
If all 3 of those happen, no better than a 2 loss team comes out of the SEC.

Neb could lose any of the games remaining, case in point is the almost loss that was Iowa St. and the loss they took was to a terrible Texas team.

That brings us to the Non AQs and Wisky. I believe if we win out in large fashion we push ourselves ahead of Bucky and in the mix with the non AQs. As mentioned TCU has spaced themselves ahead of Boise now and Boise will continue to drop in the comps as will TCU. There is always the chance that TCU has a down game thinking they are set to go undefeated but I doubt that. Better chance for OSU to jump them or play them in Arizona.

Oh and Boise doesn't play NoD, Utah does.

Just need to get to 2 and after today we will likely land at 8. 6 spots. We likely moved up 3 today. We moved up 6-7 in one week in 07. It isn't over.
 
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My bad, I was thinking Arkansas but typed Auburn.

I would expect Ark to beat LSU, hope for Bama to beat Auburn and S.C beat Auburn in the CCG. That leaves LSU, Auburn and Bama with 2 losses each, clearing the SEC from contention.

scUM beats Bucky, that takes care of them.

Nebraska loses at some point, probably CCG. 2 losses, out of the picture.

That leaves Oregon, TCU and Boise. And Oregon loss almost assures a 1 loss tOSU a spot, as theres no way TCU/Boise meet in the NC game.

Current ranks:

1. Oregon
2. Auburn - 2 losses between now and end of season, dropped from contention (Bama, CCG)
3. TCU
4. Boise
5. Utah - Lost big today, dropped from contention (TCU)
6. Bama - Lost today, dropped from contention
7. Nebraska - 1 loss between now and end of season, dropped from contention. NOTE: Weak ass B12 won't help either. CPU's will start to hate. (CCG)
8. Oklahoma - Lost today, dropped from contention
9. Wisconsin - 1 loss between now and end of season, dropped from contention (scUM)
10. LSU - 1 loss between now and end of season, dropped from contention (Ark)
11. tOSU

In the above scenario, tOSU would move up to 4 without ANY help from the CPU's. Hence, why I think an Oregon loss moves tOSU into the NC game. It'd be great for scUM, State Penn and Cryami to win all games except the H2H and potentially be ranked. That would leave us with at least 5 top 25 teams on the schedule, as opposed to Boise's what, 1 or 2, depending on Nevada? Same for TCU as they have 1, Utah.

Anyway, hope this is a better visual. I'm so stoked, lets go BUCKS!!!

EDIT: Currently Nebraska's CPU rank is 6th. tOSU is 16th. We will move up, they will move down. Okla, Texas and Mizzou losing all hurts the Huskers. Coaches have tOSU 2 spots above Nebraska, so it appears if both teams win out, tOSU has a shot to jump the Huskers.
 
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I have a question, do they look at a teams ranking on the week you played them or tally it up at the end of the year (final ranking). That seems a little off because what if you're Boise St. and beat a team like Oregon St. who had both Roger brothers to face, vs. a team who beats them now?
 
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osucollegebuck said:
I have a question, do they look at a teams ranking on the week you played them or tally it up at the end of the year (final ranking). That seems a little off because what if you're Boise St. and beat a team like Oregon St. who had both Roger brothers to face, vs. a team who beats them now?
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what if you're 2005 Notre Dame and you beat #3 Michigan and #5 Tennessee........who both ended up sucking bad.


(i don't really know what Tenn was ranked, but they were top 10 and ended up with a losing record.)
 
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osucollegebuck;1806604; said:
I have a question, do they look at a teams ranking on the week you played them or tally it up at the end of the year (final ranking). That seems a little off because what if you're Boise St. and beat a team like Oregon St. who had both Roger brothers to face, vs. a team who beats them now?
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It is ending rank that matters in comps but obviously voters would know what you are saying and vote accordingly. That is why losing early usually helps compared to losing late(2/3rds of the BCS depends on that). We should average at 6/7 in the human polls. and our comp rank will keep moving up.
 
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BuckeyeNation27;1806607; said:
what if you're 2005 Notre Dame and you beat #3 Michigan and #5 Tennessee........who both ended up sucking bad.


(i don't really know what Tenn was ranked, but they were top 10 and ended up with a losing record.)
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When Notre Dame played them they were 3-4 and unranked.
 
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Due to insomnia and boredom I figured I would go ahead and post the games of interest this week and who the Bucks are rooting for.

Friday, November 12
9:00 PM ET No. 4 Boise State at Idaho - Idaho Win

Saturday, November 13
12:00 PM ET Indiana at No. 7 Wisconsin - Indiana win
12:00 PM ET No. 13 Iowa at Northwestern - Iowa win
12:00 PM ET Miami (FL) at Georgia Tech - Miami win SOS
12:00 PM ET Minnesota at Illinois - Illinois win, to get ranked
12:00 PM ET Michigan at Purdue - wash but could use scUM at 7 wins
12:30 PM ET No. 24 Kansas State at No. 17 Missouri - K St win comp reasons
2:00 PM ET Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan - EMU win SOS
2:30 PM ET No. 14 Utah at Notre Dame - NoD win, TCU SOS drop
3:00 PM ET Memphis at Marshall - Marshall win SOS
3:30 PM ET Georgia at No. 2 Auburn - Georg win
3:30 PM ET Penn State at No. 9 Ohio State - OSU win
3:30 PM ET Texas Tech at No. 16 Oklahoma - TTU win
3:30 PM ET No. 20 Virginia Tech at North Carolina - UNC win, Boise SOS drop
4:00 PM ET San Diego State at No. 3 TCU - SDSU win
4:00 PM ET Washington State at Oregon State - WSU win, TCU/Boise/Stan SOS drop
7:00 PM ET Louisiana-Monroe at No. 5 LSU - ULM win
7:00 PM ET Kansas at No. 8 Nebraska - Kansas win
7:00 PM ET UTEP at No. 15 Arkansas - UTEP win SOS drop for Aub/ALA
7:00 PM ET No. 25 Texas A&M at Baylor - wash SOS drop for B12 teams
7:15 PM ET No. 19 Mississippi State at No. 12 Alabama - Miss St win, Comp reasons
7:15 PM ET No. 23 South Carolina at No. 22 Florida - wash SOS drop SEC
7:30 PM ET No. 1 Oregon at California - Cal win
7:30 PM ET No. 6 Stanford at Arizona State - ASU win
8:00 PM ET No. 10 Oklahoma State at Texas - Tex win
8:00 PM ET USC at No. 18 Arizona - Tough call... Ariz per Iowa SOS if Stan loses, may want Ariz loss if Stan wins per SOS of Stan
8:00 PM ET Clemson at Florida State - Clem Okla SOS drop
10:30 PM ET No. 21 Nevada at Fresno State - Fresno, downgrade Boise matchup

28 games of interest. Last week games went in OSU's favor of well over 50%. If that happens again and the rate of undefeateds losing holds at 20% as it has all year, Bucks should get significant push in BCS again. (Possible that 1 of 4 lose, Aub vs Georg, Oregon @ Cal, Boise @ Idaho, TCU vs SDSU).

Main loss now would need to come from Oregon. Aub still has 2 other tough games left and Boise and TCU could be jumped. May only need the one undefeated loss. If true would be 5 teams that MIGHT need to lose to get us to 2. Jumping certain teams is still a possibility as well(Wisc, Neb, Stan). Like in 07 if you give voters a chance to see Ohio State/Auburn in the title compared to Auburn vs TCU/Boise, it is possible that a Buckeye team sitting at 4/5 could get bumped into the title game without playing the last week of the BCS releases.(especially if Oregon loses at Oregon St)

Looking at the schedule, the last 3 weeks (including championship week) are going to have so many important games to the choosing of the title contenders. I still feel a win out and a decent to large MOV in each provides a great resume end that could push us. (especially if Ohio and Cryami win their respective conferences)
 
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Good post Nate.

Only difference I have with it is we clearly want a scUM win, because we will also be rooting for them against Wisky. And if they can be in the Top 25...at this point it'd take a miracle for Illinois to be ranked, unless scUM wins out (except for against tOSU, of course) as well as winning out themselves.

Also, I highly doubt that a 1 loss BCS team could jump 2 Non-BCS teams in the final week, especially not a B10 team. It would all depend on the voters, and at this point that doesn't look great.

However, there is still a chance! IU has what it takes to knock off Wisky, total trap game.
 
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BuckeyeNation27;1806607; said:
what if you're 2005 Notre Dame and you beat #3 Michigan and #5 Tennessee........who both ended up sucking bad.
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Then you get into a BCS game you have no business being in against the team playing the best at the end of the season and get detonated.
 
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BlufftonBuckeye;1807883; said:
Good post Nate.

Only difference I have with it is we clearly want a scUM win, because we will also be rooting for them against Wisky. And if they can be in the Top 25...at this point it'd take a miracle for Illinois to be ranked, unless scUM wins out (except for against tOSU, of course) as well as winning out themselves.

Also, I highly doubt that a 1 loss BCS team could jump 2 Non-BCS teams in the final week, especially not a B10 team. It would all depend on the voters, and at this point that doesn't look great.

However, there is still a chance! IU has what it takes to knock off Wisky, total trap game.
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Thanks,
I think we are saying the same thing. I am looking at the games on a week to week basis. scUM winning puts them at no less than 7 wins. Obviously them beating Wisky helps on another level.

Boise and TCU will have a harder time getting in the later the year goes. The reality of them being in the game and money lost will drive the voters. it is why they haven't been in range before and it will stay that way due to fanbases. If the top 5 BCS ranks are bunched up (all within 1 point or less, like it should be), then it leaves open the chance for voters to push a team in. Coaches will vote per namesake of team not by their true body of work also because they don't watch the games. If they hear late that OSU has been lights out and playing great, they will vote accordingly. If they hear well Boise beat Idaho by 20, that isn't impressive to the ear and will affect votes. Same with the Harris. Half of the people don't have a clue what a football is let alone who to vote for. So they will refer to best showing in late games. Boise isn't sexy, TCU isn't sexy. Thats who people will vote for. If they get in thats fine but I really don't believe both will make it in and really think only TCU has a small chance. In my opinion Boise is done without wholesale losses(lots of 2 loss teams).

This consensus is already being put out there. People questioning if a Boise or TCU would go thru a schedule in the SEC/B10/B12/P10 unblemished. Most say no. And they will vote accordingly. There is strength in a BCS conference that is shown in the comps and in the voters. 2 weeks ago people already said a 1 loss SEC team was definitely in over Boise and TCU. That perception will increase with comp ratings going down and with them playing terrible teams or being on bye weeks down the stretch. If OSU dominates down the stretch they can jump the non AQs. Hearing Ohio State beat scUM by 30 sounds so much better than Boise state beat Nevada by 20. Money, namesake, viewer ratings. Its all in the vote.
 
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MUAHAHAHAHA! ALL OF YOU ARE GEORGIA FANS THIS WEEKEND!!!


uga8.jpg
 
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