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Losing Early, Now What Needs to Happen - 2010 Chaos Theory

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Looking like an awful week...Iowa might squeeze this win out but an impressive win would have helped a lot. Wisconsin dominated Indiana. Idaho got rocked by Boise.

Hope something crazy happens, but so far rthis week has been a dud.
 
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NateG;1807785; said:
Thus far today.
Friday, November 12
9:00 PM ET No. 4 Boise State at Idaho - Idaho Win

Saturday, November 13
12:00 PM ET Indiana at No. 7 Wisconsin - Indiana win
12:00 PM ET No. 13 Iowa at Northwestern - Iowa win
12:00 PM ET Miami (FL) at Georgia Tech - Miami win SOS
12:00 PM ET Minnesota at Illinois - Illinois win, to get ranked
12:00 PM ET Michigan at Purdue - wash but could use scUM at 7 wins
12:30 PM ET No. 24 Kansas State at No. 17 Missouri - K St win comp reasons
2:00 PM ET Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan - EMU win SOS
2:30 PM ET No. 14 Utah at Notre Dame - NoD win, TCU SOS drop
3:00 PM ET Memphis at Marshall - Marshall win SOS
3:30 PM ET Georgia at No. 2 Auburn - Georg win
3:30 PM ET Penn State at No. 9 Ohio State - OSU win
3:30 PM ET Texas Tech at No. 16 Oklahoma - TTU win
3:30 PM ET No. 20 Virginia Tech at North Carolina - UNC win, Boise SOS drop
4:00 PM ET San Diego State at No. 3 TCU - SDSU win(Almost) maybe still good was close)
4:00 PM ET Washington State at Oregon State - WSU win, TCU/Boise/Stan SOS drop
7:00 PM ET Louisiana-Monroe at No. 5 LSU - ULM win
7:00 PM ET Kansas at No. 8 Nebraska - Kansas win
7:00 PM ET UTEP at No. 15 Arkansas - UTEP win SOS drop for Aub/ALA
7:00 PM ET No. 25 Texas A&M at Baylor - wash SOS drop for B12 teams
7:15 PM ET No. 19 Mississippi State at No. 12 Alabama - Miss St win, Comp reasons
7:15 PM ET No. 23 South Carolina at No. 22 Florida - wash SOS drop SEC
7:30 PM ET No. 1 Oregon at California - Cal win
7:30 PM ET No. 6 Stanford at Arizona State - ASU win
8:00 PM ET No. 10 Oklahoma State at Texas - Tex win
8:00 PM ET USC at No. 18 Arizona - Tough call... Ariz per Iowa SOS if Stan loses, may want Ariz loss if Stan wins per SOS of Stan
8:00 PM ET Clemson at Florida State - Clem Okla SOS drop
10:30 PM ET No. 21 Nevada at Fresno State - Fresno, downgrade Boise matchup
Click to expand...

so far 6-10 but late games could help a ton. biggies with oregon, stanford, ok st still in "trouble". Def could use a comeback from kansas. Let's see.

edit: adding washes as good.... 8-16 today and all the big games went the wrong way. Only possible help from those is the TCU, Oregon, and Stan close calls. Looks like Tex will lose and that USC will win so that would make it 9-17. best possibility is 11-17 for games needed. Pretty crappy.
 
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Friday, November 12
9:00 PM ET No. 4 Boise State at Idaho - Idaho Win

Saturday, November 13
12:00 PM ET Indiana at No. 7 Wisconsin - Indiana win
12:00 PM ET No. 13 Iowa at Northwestern - Iowa win
12:00 PM ET Miami (FL) at Georgia Tech - Miami win SOS
12:00 PM ET Minnesota at Illinois - Illinois win, to get ranked
12:00 PM ET Michigan at Purdue - wash but could use scUM at 7 wins
12:30 PM ET No. 24 Kansas State at No. 17 Missouri - K St win comp reasons
2:00 PM ET Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan - EMU win SOS
2:30 PM ET No. 14 Utah at Notre Dame - NoD win, TCU SOS drop
3:00 PM ET Memphis at Marshall - Marshall win SOS
3:30 PM ET Georgia at No. 2 Auburn - Georg win
3:30 PM ET Penn State at No. 9 Ohio State - OSU win
3:30 PM ET Texas Tech at No. 16 Oklahoma - TTU win
3:30 PM ET No. 20 Virginia Tech at North Carolina - UNC win, Boise SOS drop
4:00 PM ET San Diego State at No. 3 TCU - SDSU win(Almost) maybe still good was close)
4:00 PM ET Washington State at Oregon State - WSU win, TCU/Boise/Stan SOS drop
7:00 PM ET Louisiana-Monroe at No. 5 LSU - ULM win
7:00 PM ET Kansas at No. 8 Nebraska - Kansas win
7:00 PM ET UTEP at No. 15 Arkansas - UTEP win SOS drop for Aub/ALA
7:00 PM ET No. 25 Texas A&M at Baylor - wash SOS drop for B12 teams
7:15 PM ET No. 19 Mississippi State at No. 12 Alabama - Miss St win, Comp reasons
7:15 PM ET No. 23 South Carolina at No. 22 Florida - wash SOS drop SEC
7:30 PM ET No. 1 Oregon at California - Cal win
7:30 PM ET No. 6 Stanford at Arizona State - ASU win
8:00 PM ET No. 10 Oklahoma State at Texas - Tex win
8:00 PM ET USC at No. 18 Arizona - Tough call... Ariz per Iowa SOS if Stan loses, may want Ariz loss if Stan wins per SOS of Stan
8:00 PM ET Clemson at Florida State - Clem Okla SOS drop
10:30 PM ET No. 21 Nevada at Fresno State - Fresno, downgrade Boise matchup

Games of interest record: 9-19. Pretty Bad overall. The one that really matters is OSU 38 - State Penn 14. Good for the comps and the Humans.
Next is looking at the prev weeks comp ranks and adding the new totals on win/losses and strength of victory points.

Red-previous week change in black behind
1 Auburn - 11-0 5.91 10-0 5.50 +.41
2 TCU - 11-0 4.91 10-0 4.40 +.51
3 Oregon - 10-0 4.10 9-0 3.56 +.54
4 LSU - 9-1 (loss to #1) 5.44 8-1 (loss to #1) 5.13 +.31
5 Boise - 9-0 4.22 8-0 4.00 +.22
6 Stan - 9-1 (loss to # 3)4.44 8-1 (loss to #3) 4.00 +.44
6 Neb - 9-1 (loss to # 12) 4.89 8-1 (loss to #12) 4.75 +.14
6 Ok St - 9-1 (loss to #6) 5.00 8-1 (loss to #6) 4.75 +.25
9 MSU - 9-1 (loss to #14) 4.22 9-1 (loss to #14) 4.22 even
10 Wisc - 9-1 (loss to #9) 3.89 8-1 (loss to #9) 3.50 +.39
11 Ala - 8-2 (loss to #4, # 26) 4.88 7-2 (loss to #4,26) 4.29 +.59
12 Mizz - 8-2 (loss to #6,unr) 6.13 7-2 (loss to #6,Unr) 5.43 +.70
13 Utah - 8-2 (loss to #2,unr) 3.25 8-1 (loss to #2) 3.00 +.25
14 Iowa - 7-3 (loss to #10,17,unr) 5.29 7-2 (loss to #10,17) 5.14 +.15
15 OSU - 9-1 (loss to # 10) 4.44 8-1 (loss to #10) 3.88 +.56
16 Okla - 8-2 (loss to #12,unr) 4.88 7-2 (loss to #12,Unr)4.29 +.59
17 Ark - 8-2 (loss to #1,11) 4.88 7-2 (loss to #1,11) 4.43 +.45
17 Ariz - 7-3 (loss to #6,unr(2)) 4.14 7-2 (loss to #6,Unr) 4.00 +.14
19 Miss St - 7-3 (loss to #1,4,11) 4.43 7-2 (loss to #1,4) 4.29 +.14
20 Kan St - will be out of top 25

So from the rankings above the top three gainers in strength of wins (total wins of teams beat divided by win total) are:
1.Mizz +.70
2.Ala/Okla +.59
3.OSU +.56
Bottom 3 that matter
1. Neb +.14
2. Boise +.22
3. Ok St +.25

So bucks get a top 3-4 boost from teams they beat winning. Should get a boost in the comps. For how bad the day went in games of interest, the boost we get in the comps could butt us up with teams ahead of us. We could also get consideration to jump some teams in the comps that were ahead of us and didn't lose(MSU and Neb). We shouldn't get jumped in the comps. So all this being said, my top 10 BCS predictions for tomorrow.

1. Oregon
2. Auburn
3. TCU
4. Boise
5. LSU
6. Stan
7. Wisky
8. Neb
9. OSU
10. Ok St

Auburn closes gap on Oregon and both pull away from TCU and Boise. Gap between 5-9 slims. Wisky gets closer to 6, OSU get closer to 8. LSU, Stan and Neb drop points. Could set up opportunity for teams to jump Boise next week and look to jump TCU later.

Again win out and win convincingly. Get wins from teams not playing common opponents. Get wins from teams that could be ranked late in year. And get losses from teams ahead in comps or polls.
 
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All the fans I came across yesterday were watching the TV's at the stadium and cheering on Northwestern. Not sure why since we have a head to head with them next week and need them to be ranked as high as possible. So much for that. It was supposed to be a big game for us just to win. Now we need to hope for a curb-stomping.
 
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Gosh, given that the NC game seems so impossible, I would sure like to see the Buckeyes get Boise State in a game and blow them up. Totally and utterly destroy them. Then, that will be the end of this non-AQ nonsense.
 
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Steve19;1811467; said:
Gosh, given that the NC game seems so impossible, I would sure like to see the Buckeyes get Boise State in a game and blow them up. Totally and utterly destroy them. Then, that will be the end of this non-AQ nonsense.
Click to expand...

Agreed, but after watching "Mc Lovin" pick us apart in the the first half yesterday, i'm not sure that we want Boise....
 
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jenkinswoody;1811480; said:
Agreed, but after watching "Mc Lovin" pick us apart in the the first half yesterday, i'm not sure that we want Boise....
Click to expand...

Did you miss the second half?

Sure mclovin had a great 1st half but even a stray dog finds a warm piece of sidewalk. Couple that with limited film on mclovin as opposed to Moore and I think Boyzee would find themselves taking a 2nd half PSU plunger from the silver bullets.
 
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Telekinesis;1811433; said:
All the fans I came across yesterday were watching the TV's at the stadium and cheering on Northwestern. Not sure why since we have a head to head with them next week and need them to be ranked as high as possible.
Click to expand...

Some folks are incapable of thinking more than one step at a time. Iowa is (was) tied with us in the standings, so they need to lose. That's as deep as it gets.

You're correct, of course. We would've been better off for Iowa to win.
 
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TS10HTW;1811495; said:
Did you miss the second half?

Sure mclovin had a great 1st half but even a stray dog finds a warm piece of sidewalk. Couple that with limited film on mclovin as opposed to Moore and I think Boyzee would find themselves taking a 2nd half PSU plunger from the silver bullets.
Click to expand...

Oh I saw it...... We looked great because we adjusted against a green quarterback. He couldnt readjust to our adjustments on the fly. I'm guessing Kellen Moore wouldn't have the same issues against our depleted secondary. That being said, I still think that we would win. No "PSU plunger" though.
 
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