Looking at this week's polls, the only possible MNC that I can see involving Ohio State would be against TCU, since the Frogs are essentially in the clubhouse with only a game at New Mexico (1-9) remaining. After a bye week, no less.
Losses we need to see:
Oregon faces Arizona at home and Oregon State on the road. Given the way Cal was able to slow down their "unstoppable" offense, there's a good possibility that Mike Stoops' squad can do the same.
Oregon can lose to either.
Auburn has two shots to lose it, and it doesn't matter if the FBI finds dead hookers and 55lb bags of pure Columbian in Newton's apartment. Both Alabama and South Carolina are capable of beating the Tigers.
Auburn needs to lose both or the SECCG only. Brad Edwards said that Auburn losing @ Alabama and then winning the SEC would still push for the title.
Either loss most likely puts TCU in the title game. If both lose, TCU is certainly in.
Next up, Boise. They host Fresno State, then play at Nevada, then host hapless Utah State. The most losable of those is the game at Nevada. Fresno State would have a better shot if the game were in the Central Valley, but it's on Boise's abominable blue field. The rankings don't indicate that the voters or computers are going to drop Boise far enough for a BCS school to move past them if Oregon and Auburn lose, so a Boise loss is critical for us.
TCU will not make the game. If Boise wins out and Aub and/or Oregon lose the only Non AQ with a chance is Boise. The VT win looks better than any win TCU has. Boise will jump TCU in next week or two barring a VT loss. Boise doesn't need to lose in my opinion but a loss definitely opens the door for us.
LSU hosts Mississippi the goes to OurKansas, a very losable game for them. It's also going to be hard to vote a team into the MNC that didn't even go to the SEC title game should they win out. Unfortunately, the computers aren't going to let us slip past them even if the voters do.
Stanford is at Cal this weekend, and we're hoping that Cal plays like they did against Oregon. They finish with Oregon State at home, so Cal is our best shot.
LSU, Stanford just need to lose one.(possible)
Wisconsin is a team we need to see lose, and unfortunately, our best hope is Michigan. The upside of that game is that either way we're happy. A Michigan loss is always a good time, so don't root for them too hard. Wisconsin finishes at home against Northwestern, who lost Persa for the rest of the season, so don't expect any help there.
I never sleep on NW, no matter the situation. scUM needs to win one of the last two or RR may be done. I wouldn't put it past him to do whatever it takes to have them ready for Wisky. Wisky has, per many fellow fans thoughts, tested the karma of college football by continually running up the score. Add to that how bad scUM's D looked against Ill and how they flipped the switch against Purdue. (granted Purdue) scUM could make a late push for Cap 1 bowl if they win out. (I don't believe they win both) But I also thought there was no way that Texas maybe misses a bowl this year or that MSU would only have 1 loss. If Wisky sleepwalks the way the did starting against Indiana and Purdue they can lose. I still also believe if Wisky plays both close and we DOMINATE the last 2 weeks, we can jump them with some losses we need.
Finally, there's Nebraska. On the road at aTm this week, then at home against "rival" dead-man-walking Colorado. We need them to lose now.
The winner from the South can also beat them. A win isn't needed this week. Would be good to have Okla St lose before the B12CG. So there is no possibility of a jump.
So, this weekend's must-lose games:
Stanford at Cal - wouldn't say must win but better chance for loss
Wisconsin at Michigan - sleeping on NW gets you beat ala OSU in 04. NW could also be playing as a spoiler which Fitz loves.
Nebraska at Texas A&M - other games they can lose
We need to go 3-for-3 on those, or any hopes of sneaking into the MNC are done. A Wisconsin loss is a double word score, because that pretty much assures us the Rose Bowl bid.
Again I don't think those are all "needed". Helpful, yes. As crazy as it would make it (07 revisited) only one game needs to happen this week. OSU over Iowa. Other stuff makes it easier.
