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Losing Early, Now What Needs to Happen - 2010 Chaos Theory

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Look, for the Buckeyes to get to the NC game, we need more than just wins.

1. Win, and do so decisively.

2. Have the 2 major CCG (B12/SEC) go our way. We need it to be a 2 loss team vs a 1 loss team, with the 2 loss team pulling the. For example, we want Auburn to lose a game, but BEAT Alabama on 11/26. Then have Bama beat Auburn in the CCG, leaving each with 2 losses and clearing the way. Same thing goes for the B12. EDIT: Note, seems to me that a 1 loss SEC CCG winner ends up ahead of OSU. Maybe if Auburn has a TERRIBLE loss they fall low enough, but I would imagine that they would end up leapfrogging tOSU following a CCG win.

3. Root against Wisky the rest of the way. Despite the H2H, Wisky has, shockingly, a worse OOC schedule than us. And they have cupcakes the rest of the way, meaning that the computers will begin to work against them. That, coupled with the humans having OSU ranked reasonably high, should put us over the top. The computers should be able to make up the 1 spot the humans gave Wisky over us.

4. Obviously it would be great for Boise/TCU to get a loss. Uta shouldn't be a treat because they truly have an embarrassingly soft schedule. I mean, terrible. TCU/Boise have the win over Oregon St, and since the pollsters are keeping the beavers in that looks good. Ugh. Utah, on the other hand, has no chance of staying ahead of a 1 loss team from B10/B12/SEC.

5. Probably the least of these, but Cryami winning out would be huge. That boost could really help in the BCS, but not as much as the above would.

There ya go, my overview of the NC roadmap for the Bucks. Not too detailed, I'll leave that for someone else. This is the "30,000" feet view.

GO BUCKEYES!
 
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Chaos on the horizon.

The following teams ranked ahead of Ohio State in the BCS that will be playing this weekend:

Washington @ (1)Oregon
(3)TCU @ (5)Utah
(6)Alabama @ (10)LSU
(7)Nebraska @ Iowa St
(8)Oklahoma @ Texas A&M


The following teams ranked immediately behind Ohio State in the BCS that will be playing this weekend:

(12)Mizzou @ Texas Tech
(15)Arizona @ (13)Stanford
(16)Iowa @ Indiana
(21)Baylor @ (17)Oklahoma St
(18)Arkansas @ (19)South Carolina

With the way things have been going with voters and computer rankings...Three of these teams ranked below tOSU will probably jump them during the BYE week.

At least 2 of the teams ranked ahead of the Bucks will be going down maybe during the BYE week tOSU will actually move up! nah, that's just silliness.
 
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Napoleonbuck;1803157; said:
Only problem with that is Bama and Auburn can't play in the SEC CCG.

They're both SEC west teams.
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Ah, good catch. My bad.

Principle is the same though. And Napoleon, as in Napoleon Ohio? I used to live there, moved from Wauseon. My mom grew up in Napoleon, grandparents lived there their entire lives, grandpa put in 40 years at the Cambells plant.
 
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BlufftonBuckeye;1803405; said:
Ah, good catch. My bad.

Principle is the same though. And Napoleon, as in Napoleon Ohio? I used to live there, moved from Wauseon. My mom grew up in Napoleon, grandparents lived there their entire lives, grandpa put in 40 years at the Cambells plant.
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We can hope for something just as good.

LSU beats Bama this weekend, the Bama beats Auburn in the Iron Bowl. Auburn would still go to the SEC CG because of their win over LSU. Auburn then loses to the SEC east team. LSU would still only have one loss, but would the voters really send them after not getting to their CG?
 
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BlufftonBuckeye;1803405; said:
And Napoleon, as in Napoleon Ohio? I used to live there...
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I always imagined NapoleonBuck as being short in stature, with his hand tucked into his jacket. and having a penchant for bicorne hats. :biggrin:

Because of your post, I will now think a town in Ohio with the same attributes. rats. :(
 
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MightbeaBuck;1803471; said:
I always imagined NapoleonBuck as being short in stature, with his hand tucked into his jacket. and having a penchant for bicorne hats. :biggrin:

Because of your post, I will now think a town in Ohio with the same attributes. rats. :(
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buckiprof;1803487; said:
Rats....now that has me thinking of Willard, Ohio.
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Ahhh... the early 80's BB games between Napoleon and Willard... those were the days...
 
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I know the door is slowly and excruciatingly closing for NCG title hopes, but here are games of interest during OSU's BYE week and why.

12:00 PM ET No. 9 Wisconsin at Purdue - Purdue win/ Wisky loss
12:00 PM ET Minnesota at No. 14 Michigan State - Minnesota win SOS
12:00 PM ET No. 16 Iowa at Indiana - Iowa win for rank move up
12:00 PM ET Illinois at Michigan - Illinois win for rank move up
12:00 PM ET Maryland at Miami (FL) - Cryami for SOS
12:30 PM ET No. 21 Baylor at No. 17 Oklahoma State - Either way helps knock down SOS for a top team.
1:00 PM ET Chattanooga at No. 2 Auburn - Chatt win
3:30 PM ET Washington at No. 1 Oregon - Washington win
3:30 PM ET No. 3 TCU at No. 5 Utah - Either or. Best scenario Utah win then NoD beats Utah.
3:30 PM ET Hawaii at No. 4 Boise State - Hawaii win
3:30 PM ET No. 6 Alabama at No. 10 LSU - Likely want LSU win with hopes of Ark win later over LSU and ALA win over Aub. If Ala wins, LSU out of BCS and likely sets up scenario where winner of ALA/AUB plays for SEC and title shot. ALA win and we root for Miss St next week to beat ALA.
3:30 PM ET No. 7 Nebraska at Iowa State - Iowa St win
3:30 PM ET North Carolina at No. 24 Florida State - NC win. OKLA SOS loss
3:30 PM ET Northwestern at Penn State - State Penn win SOS
4:15 PM ET Marshall at UAB - Marshall win SOS
5:00 PM ET No. 23 Nevada at Idaho - Idaho win rank down Nevada pre Boise game.
7:00 PM ET No. 8 Oklahoma at Texas A&M - A&M win
7:00 PM ET No. 18 Arkansas at No. 19 South Carolina - Either or. Likely want So Car to win to drop ALA win over Ark.
7:00 PM ET Oregon State at UCLA - UCLA win to knock down SOS for TCU and Boise.
8:00 PM ET No. 12 Missouri at Texas Tech - TTU win
8:00 PM ET No. 15 Arizona at No. 13 Stanford - Ariz win to boost Iowa SOS pre OSU/IOWA

Ohio won earlier in week which helps SOS. Unfortunately VT came back to win and hurt Cryami's chances to win ACC. It is still poss if VT loses a game @ UNC next week or to Virginia the week after a Cryami loss.
 
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Nice analysis. But, Alabama and Auburn are both SEC West, so they aren't going to play each other in the SEC CCG. However, they do play in a few weeks. A Bama win will put them in the CCG and then we can pull for the Eastern Division team to knock them off. It actually could happen that an SEC team does not make the NCG.
 
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