IMO the losses to '19 Clemson & '20 'Bama changed Day more.
Let me elaborate.
tOSU offenses in '19 & '20 were the pinnacle of
the power-run and deep-passing game -- the same formula that won us the 'chip in '14. Starting with QB Justin Fields, who -- despite being susceptible to sacks due to his tendency to hold on to the ball too long -- was dead accurate when he did launch the ball deep. Dobbins and Sermon were stretch run mavens that made the play-caller looked like a genius. Josh Meyers & Wyatt Davis were maulers in the middle of the O-line.
The rest of '19 & '20 is history. Blame it on refs, injuries, Covid, Coombs, whatever. The truth is, the '19 team scored 23 against Clemson, and '20 24 against 'Bama. Neither was enough to get the job done on the biggest stage. Day said it himself in a recent interview:
To Ryan Day, tOSU was already at crossroads then. He was facing the Playoff-Participation-Trap™. He could continue fielding the same style of offense that got us stuffed in the playoffs, wasting a true Death-Star in '19 and its remnant in '20. We would likely still perennially be
in the playoffs and winning the B1G en-route no less. We could hope for a lucky break that would eventually get us over the hump (cough, opponent losing two NFL wideouts, one of them the 12th pick in the NFL draft, in a
rematch, cough). But to Ryan Day, that wasn't enough. He wanted to control our own destiny.
Day surveyed the short history of CFP winners, and thought he saw a trend.
- Deshaun Watson & Clemson in '16
- Trevor Lawrence & Clemson in '18
- Joe Burrow & LSU in '19 -- Burrow was personally responsible for 6 TDs against a Clemson defense that held Fields & Co to 23 points a game earlier
- Sark & 'Bama in '20 -- tOSU fans might still have nightmares of Tuf chasing DeVonta in coverage, and understandably so, but an oft overlooked fact was 'Bama beat UGA 41-24 in '20. Truth is, we ain't beating 'Bama in '20 scoring only 24, even with Georgia's Defense.
None of the those titles were won on the ground. The rushing stats in each of those games were remarkably consistent form
both sides, 150 yards from each team, give or take. You don't make the playoffs no less the title game being bad in the trenches on either side of the ball e.g. tOSU in '21. Even in the '20 title game, when 'Bama seemed to be doing anything it wanted to us offensively in Miami, 'Bama only out-gained us on the ground by 10 yards on a lower YPC average. Day thought to himself, you don't differentiate yourself in the playoffs on the ground, you do so in the air, through stellar QB play. I could imagine Day nodding; QB play was
his forte.
So, Day took tOSU down a path less taken -- he set out to make tOSU a dropback passing team. It was not because he is soft, not because he is a 7-on-7 or Big 12 coach. Maybe it was because of his ego -- thinking that his expertise in QB play alone was enough to carry tOSU to promise land without paying costs elsewhere. It was above all else a gambit to gain an advantage for tOSU against the other monsters in the playoffs. TTUN looked dead in the water after a disastrous Covid season. Day needed a new goal, thus he embarked on a journey chasing the ghosts of Watsons, Lawrences, and Burrows past. Two losses to a miraculously resurrected TTUN later, this journey not even did
not lead to promise land (at least not yet), it might even very well lead to his downfall.
In hindsight, the dropback passing experiment has mostly failed -- at least the first iteration with Stroud. Like everything with Day, the
idea was noble, but the
execution was spotty. Changing of identity has its opportunity costs -- recruiting budgets, practice time, etc. The improvements in tOSU's dropback passing game was simply not enough to offset the regression in the trenches. When tOSU failed to change its identity as Day has envisioned, it looked like an offense without one -- it can run, but always seems to get stuffed in short yardage; it can pass, but not consistent enough when the shot plays are not there. Had Stroud really developed into a Burrow, Nov 26 '22 would have at worst been a shootout win instead of blowout loss. CJ looked like he was on his way to becoming Burrow in the Rose Bowl almost a year ago, but alas that was against a running back in coverage against a healthy JSN.
P.S. I still think people underestimated the effects of losing JSN because of the emergence of MHJr and the fact that tOSU somehow managed to field a scoring offense near top of FBS throughout the season. JSN would have been the perfect chess piece to keep tOSU's offense on the field even when the shot plays are taken away -- he would have been to Stroud what Renfrow was to Watson at Clemson, or Welker to Manning/Brady in the NFL. Beyond their respective athletic gifts, Stroud and JSN just seemed to had such a strong bond and chemistry. As good as MHJr has been and can become, he and JSN are not the same type of WRs.
Obviously, the book on the '22 season has not been closed yet -- we'll see if Day & Stroud can pull a rabbit out of the hat on the final day of '22. But no matter the result in the upcoming Peach Bowl against UGA, Day is at yet another crossroads. There are so many questions:
- We already saw Day attempted to change the identity of tOSU's offense two seasons ago, will he do so again after Stroud presumably leaves for the NFL? Given the multiple fan-proclaimed Burrow clones on the roster, what offense will Day run before any of them truly becomes Burrow?
- Will QBs even stick around long enough to become Burrow at tOSU in the NIL/portal era? Or will we end up a QB farm system for yet another SEC title team (that can now throw money around above the table)? Can we take a Burrow from the Portal?
- Will it better to revert to the old power-running and deep-passing ways, to make sure Day wins often enough against TTUN to keep his job, and pray for a lucky break in the playoffs? Will Day survive the day to see his break? Both Tressel ('02) and Meyer ('14) got their breaks early in their tenures, will Day be as fortunate (e.g. to find post season success in '22)?
What Day must have realized by now, is that the elite cerebral dropback passer is a rare unicorn, even in the Pros. In the college game, with such fluid and frequent roster turnovers that will only become more so in the NIL/portal era, that elite QB is not only rare but
fleeting. It is not something you aim to "develop" year in year out, but more something you maximize once you realize there is one of them on your roster. Burrow wasn't Burrow until 3 years at tOSU and his 2nd year at LSU, and then he was only Burrow for one year, and left. Then LSU crashed, and has since needed to reset with purple-face. Or look at Clemson, whose post-season success peaked in Lawrence's freshmen year. Clemson went from champs in '18, to runner up, to semifinalist, to Cheeze-it bowl. Even mighty 'Bama managed to win only 1 playoff game since '20, against a
G5 opponent.
Y'all say Day is stubborn, which maybe true in game. But I feel at the macro level, he has been swift to make changes, at least compared to Urban. Offensively, he attempted to change the team's identity even after beating Clemson big in the playoffs. Defensively, he went from 1-high in '19 to 3-high in '22. Remember, Day used to be a go-for-it-every-4th-down-like-playing-Madden type of coach. Fake punt against Wiscy in '19 B1G title game. 4th&2 deep post to Olave against Clemson in '19 semifinal. Day has since tuned it down after the loss to Oregon in '21, where we might very well have won the game if we traded some of the failed 4th down conversions for field goals. Now for many Day has turned too passive.
Day is a young coach still learning his ways. Will he find the winning formula in between Burrows? Will he find the right balance between his 3 stated goals, the Rivalry, the B1G, and the post season? Oh, I'm sure Day is
capable of figuring it out. However, at a town like Columbus, where expectations are high, and patience is little, will he last long enough to figure it out?
That is the question.
do not want
