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College Football Playoff (2015-16 Season)

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matcar said:
Ok. I guess I just see a certain amount of talk about rankings and from my perspective, if we are the best, it'll show regardless of seed. If not, then that will show too.

If we are included in the top 4, nothing else really matters and if we are the cream, we will rise to the top.
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If OSU is "the cream", all that means is OSU has a better probability of winning against the other teams. It might mean, for example, that OSU wins 90% of the time against Clemson and 70% against Bama. Upsets still happen some percentage of the time though. If we think Bama is the toughest out, having them in that other semi absolutely increases the overall probability that OSU avoids an upset over the two game playoff and wins the whole thing.
 
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BigJim said:
If OSU is "the cream", all that means is OSU has a better probability of winning against the other teams. It might mean, for example, that OSU wins 90% of the time against Clemson and 70% against Bama. Upsets still happen some percentage of the time though. If we think Bama is the toughest out, having them in that other semi absolutely increases the overall probability that OSU avoids an upset over the two game playoff and wins the whole thing.
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Not meaningfully. It just means they avoid them in the semis.
 
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Crump's brother said:
Is there anyone who doesn't think tOSU and Bama are the last teams standing regardless?
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Watson can throw the ball and has some pretty good receivers... could easily be a repeat of 2014 Sugar for Bama. Not sure Clemson can stop Henry either ... but if it's gonna be 2 offenses exposing defensive weaknesses, my money is not on Kiffin.

matcar said:
Not meaningfully. It just means they avoid them in the semis.
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If #4 has a 25% chance of winning, #3 has a 35% chance of winning, and #2 and 45% chance of winning, it breaks down as
#4 then #2 -> 41.25% chance of winning NC
#4 then #3 -> 48.75% chance of winning NC

Just an example where numbers are fairly close for 1-3 (reflecting current perception)... looks meaningful to me.
 
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TampaBuckeyes said:
Projecting unc to win that game. Just a feeling. They know how to win close ones and they look legit. Even in their freak loss they were the much better team. The only clemson game I watched was the FSU one and that was a clown show on both sides.
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I watched the ND game, and although ND was down 21-3 in the third and down 21-9 entering the fourth, ND outplayed Clemson overall...it was their four turnovers in sloppy conditions that did them in.
 
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If this board is typical of the average OSU fan, or the average Big Ten fan, then I'm amazed at the complete lack of focus on the Penn State - Michigan game. This could give us a better picture of Michigan's defense against a non-mobile passer and a team with a decent defense.

I've got a hunch the Lions put the hurt on Michigan.
 
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