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College Football Playoff (2015-16 Season)

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ScriptOhio said:
Just think, we cheered when the scUM punter fumbled the ball on the snap, Sparty picked it up, and scored a TD as time expired beating scUM.



Stupid us, had scUM won the game we still would control our own destiny by getting into the B1G Conference Game with a win over scUM this Saturday.

:smash::smash::smash::smash::smash::smash::smash:
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Frankly, I'll take this. We can't win the conference every year, and it's not easy to repeat as champions. Whereas I can't stand the thought of Harbaugh beating one of his rivals with the chance to beat the other and win the conference. I love that he lost to one and could go 0-2 in his first year. There is a lot of hate in me for them. Very unlikely that both us and MSU lose this week. I can't tell you how sick I would be with ttun winning the conference in his first year. I have no ill will towards MSU and Dantonio. They are a thorn in our side the last few years, but they are a solidly built team with a good hard ass coach that learned from Tressel, and a bunch of underrated guys that play hard and with attitude. Playing them as the big game of the year, has been great and added some more fun and challenge to the season. On the other hand ttun is a bunch of entitled pieces of shit and I can't wait to kick their ass. I say good luck to Dantonio and his crew in the playoffs. It's well deserved and I will be cheering for them. I'll enjoy seeing the Buckeyes in a NY6 bowl if we can make it.
 
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First of all, I think it's pretty clear what's going to happen. UM will beat osu and then psu will pull off the upset. Because Beck of course. But just for shits and giggles, let's play a game of mayhem for how osu could backdoor their way into the playoff.

#1 osu beats UM, msu loses to psu, and osu beats Iowa (preferably undefeated). That's the best chance, and I'd put it at about a 5% chance of happening. Not much mayhem needed.

#2 Mayhem. Osu demolishes UM (lololololol I know, but most likely needed for the playoff to happen). There are currently 6 entities ahead of osu: any SEC champion, most likely any ACC champion (if NC or Clemson don't lose before they play), Oklahoma (and MAYBE Baylor and/or Okie St), stanford if they win out, ND if they win out, and B1G champion. Let's say for arguments sake 3 locks are SEC, ACC, and B1G champions. Imagine, if you will, the following happens. Stanford beats ND. ND is then eliminated. Then Stanford loses in the Pac 12 championship. Stanford is then eliminated. Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma (and MAYBE TCU has to beat Baylor). That very well could/should eliminate the B12 (maybe an outside shot of Okie St getting the spot or Baylor if they beat TCU). If all that happens, there would be a shot of osu getting in.

I crunched the numbers, and it looks good. Combining the ability of osu blowing UM out and all the teams losing above, we're looking at roughly a .01% chance of it happening. I just bought my tickets to the Fiesta gentlemen.
 
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LostLassie said:
^That's assuming tOSU doesn't get dropped to 10th or worse. I don't expect the committee to be kind this week.
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Well I am qualifying it with a butt whooping by osu over UM. If they just beat UM by like a FG, I would expect 100% they finish 5 or 6 behind Oklahoma state and/or Baylor. But if they crush UM (which again, I see a very remote possibility of that occurring), I could see them squeezing in over Okie St and/or Baylor. It will at least be close.
Edit: and heck, maybe throw Iowa in there as well. If Iowa is 12-1 with only a loss against msu, they may be ahead of osu in the mayhem example. So it would perhaps require an msu loss against Iowa or Iowa losing to Nebraska. The % just went down to .001%. Dammit. Anyone want to buy some tickets?
 
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I don't see how OSU gets into the playoffs. If Oklahoma St. beats Oklahoma, Oklahoma St. would jump us. If Florida Beats Alabama in the SEC championship game, Florida would jump us. If UNC beats Clemson, UNC would jump us. Baylor would have to get beat by TCU or Texas. If ND gets beat by Stanford we would move up one spot. MSU would have to get beat by PSU which I don't see happening. Then we would have to beat Michigan and then beat Iowa. Plus the committee would have to overlook our ineffective offense of late.
 
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Just as a what if exercise:

Has to happen:
  1. OSU beats scUM
  2. PSU upsets MSU
  3. OSU beats undefeated Iowa in B1G CG
IF all that happened here are scenarios that are unequally likely to play out but could let OSU in

SEC:
  • FSU beats UF
  • UF beats Bama in SEC CG (or Bama loses to Auburn)
  • SEC Champ is now 2 loss UF (or Ole Miss)
ACC:
  • Clemson loses to UNC in ACC CG
B12:
  • B12 champ will be a 1 loss team
  • 1 loss OU loss to Texas is much worse than 1 loss B1G champ OSU's loss to MSU
ND:
  • Loses to Stanford

Odds are long indeed but none of it matters unless both teams from that state up north go down this Saturday
 
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I don't think the odds are as far off as some of you gentlemen, but they're still not good, and we'll know more once we see where we sit tonight. But taking Jaxbuck's lead we do need to win this week, have MSU lose and then beat Iowa.

After that I think any one of these happening could get us in the door, assuming we're in the 7-9 range and need to only jump 3/4 teams. We'd jump Iowa and MSU if the above happens, so would only need to move past 1 or 2 others:

-FSU over Florida, Florida/Miss over Alabama effectively taking both SEC teams out of the fight
-UNC lose at NC State, beat Clemson in AAC championship OR SC pulling another improbable win over Clemson and close championship game.
-Stanford beats ND and loses in PAC championship (would probably still need 1 other scenario to pan out here)
-TCU over Baylor, Ok State over Oklahoma (would probably give Ok State the nod over us anyway, so would need another scenario to pan out).

2 wins combined with MSU loss at PSU would give us 2 top 10ish wins in the last 2 weeks, and hopefully we look good, passing the eye test like last year. Combine that with any of the conferences also canablizing themselves (each would have 2 teams around/ahead of us), and I'll take my chances. Likely? No, especially as bad as we looked. But I'd throw it in the 10-20% range right now, and move it to 50-50 if we win big and see the Ped State upset.
 
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ScriptOhio said:
Just think, we cheered when the scUM punter fumbled the ball on the snap, Sparty picked it up, and scored a TD as time expired beating scUM.



Stupid us, had scUM won the game we still would control our own destiny by getting into the B1G Conference Game with a win over scUM this Saturday.

:smash::smash::smash::smash::smash::smash::smash:
Click to expand...


Think if Gus had done this game. He'd have to have been hospitalized for major organ failure.
 
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Gizmo said:
I don't think the odds are as far off as some of you gentlemen, but they're still not good, and we'll know more once we see where we sit tonight. But taking Jaxbuck's lead we do need to win this week, have MSU lose and then beat Iowa.

After that I think any one of these happening could get us in the door, assuming we're in the 7-9 range and need to only jump 3/4 teams. We'd jump Iowa and MSU if the above happens, so would only need to move past 1 or 2 others:

-FSU over Florida, Florida/Miss over Alabama effectively taking both SEC teams out of the fight
-UNC lose at NC State, beat Clemson in AAC championship OR SC pulling another improbable win over Clemson and close championship game.
-Stanford beats ND and loses in PAC championship (would probably still need 1 other scenario to pan out here)
-TCU over Baylor, Ok State over Oklahoma (would probably give Ok State the nod over us anyway, so would need another scenario to pan out).

2 wins combined with MSU loss at PSU would give us 2 top 10ish wins in the last 2 weeks, and hopefully we look good, passing the eye test like last year. Combine that with any of the conferences also canablizing themselves (each would have 2 teams around/ahead of us), and I'll take my chances. Likely? No, especially as bad as we looked. But I'd throw it in the 10-20% range right now, and move it to 50-50 if we win big and see the Ped State upset.
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For the record if the holy trinity were to play out (OSU wins, Sparty loses, play and beat undefeated Iowa in CCG) then the odds are pretty good OSU would make the playoffs. There would need to be no chaos ending to the season.

Its the holy trinity (and lets be honest the 2nd leg of it) that I don't see happening.
 
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Jaxbuck said:
Just as a what if exercise:

Has to happen:
  1. OSU beats scUM
  2. PSU upsets MSU
  3. OSU beats undefeated Iowa in B1G CG
IF all that happened here are scenarios that are unequally likely to play out but could let OSU in

SEC:
  • FSU beats UF
  • UF beats Bama in SEC CG (or Bama loses to Auburn)
  • SEC Champ is now 2 loss UF (or Ole Miss)
ACC:
  • Clemson loses to UNC in ACC CG
B12:
  • B12 champ will be a 1 loss team
  • 1 loss OU loss to Texas is much worse than 1 loss B1G champ OSU's loss to MSU
ND:
  • Loses to Stanford

Odds are long indeed but none of it matters unless both teams from that state up north go down this Saturday
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I really don't think the odds are that long if osu beats UM and Iowa. Hell, even if Iowa loses to Nebraska.
 
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Before this I didn't think there was any chance of an at large for OSU, now there clearly is.

Need some help obviously but Okie State wins Bedlam, TCU and Stanford win their games and shit gets real (assuming an OSU win over scUM of course)

as a point of reference:

Oklahoma is currently a 7 point fav
Baylor -1 1/2
ND +3 1/2 underdog
Iowa -1 1/2

all are on the road

I list Iowa as a need to lose team on the theory that if they do lose to Corn and MSU in the B1G CG they can't stay ahead of us.
 
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Jaxbuck said:
Before this I didn't think there was any chance of an at large for OSU, now there clearly is.

Need some help obviously but Okie State wins Bedlam, TCU and Stanford win their games and [Mark May] gets real (assuming an OSU win over scUM of course)

as a point of reference:

Oklahoma is currently a 7 point fav
Baylor -1 1/2
ND +3 1/2 underdog
Iowa -1 1/2

all are on the road

I list Iowa as a need to lose team on the theory that if they do lose to Corn and MSU in the B1G CG they can't stay ahead of us.
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I went a little crazy too on the at large bid potential above. Welcome to the club.

Edit: the one mystery around the B12 and okie St. And Baylor if they win is if they get extra points for being a conference champion. And if so, enough to jump osu?
 
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