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2025 Cotton Bowl: #2 tOSU vs #10 Miami-FL, Wed 12/31 7:30 ET at JerryWorld

Talent, Kirby, and people still fearing their past teams. I also think they’re very balanced, and Ole Miss’ defense is worse.



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Ehh? I'm not sure their passing game is very good. The QB completion numbers look great but the yardage is low. Which means he's throwing a lot of short high percentage passes
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2025 Cotton Bowl: #2 tOSU vs #10 Miami-FL, Wed 12/31 7:30 ET at JerryWorld

With the defense we have it’s a fair trade off for an offense that maybe needs more opportunities. Maybe the inefficiencies continue but then again maybe our defensive dominance continues too.

This is the exact "logic" a bad gambler falls into and starts making more bets when he's losing. "I just need more opportunities to overcome bad luck"

There is no way to equivocate on this, if you are having execution problems, doing it on volume is not a good idea.
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2025 Cotton Bowl: #2 tOSU vs #10 Miami-FL, Wed 12/31 7:30 ET at JerryWorld

A little off topic but I genuinely don't understand why people are so frightened of UGA. They've looked like world beaters in exactly two games. Part of me wonders if they don't lose to Ole Miss. Their last game was close at Athens.

Talent, Kirby, and people still fearing their past teams. I also think they’re very balanced, and Ole Miss’ defense is worse.

Well to the first point you are correct, finish a drive with points is better than ending a drive with no points, I'm sure most people would agree with that.

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2025 Cotton Bowl: #2 tOSU vs #10 Miami-FL, Wed 12/31 7:30 ET at JerryWorld

Well to the first point you are correct, finish a drive with points is better than ending a drive with no points, I'm sure most people would agree with that.

The rest of what you are describing is an execution failure, not a failure due to pace. Each team is going to get ~10-12 possessions per game. The opportunity to execute your offense and score 27+ points isn't constrained by going at a slower pace. It's constrained by your execution.

So a 3-0 game is a higher risk to go against you, again you've picked up on the risk element of the opponent getting lucky while on offense but if you were efficient in your use of the 10-12 possessions you wouldn't have only 3 points.

If the logic doesn't make sense to you go look up the stats. The correlation between numbers of plays and scoring is low, something like .20 ish, the correlation between efficiency (EPA) and scoring is very high, something like .70ish.

Going faster while struggling with execution is the exact recipe to give your opponent more opportunity to beat you.
With the defense we have it’s a fair trade off for an offense that maybe needs more opportunities. Maybe the inefficiencies continue but then again maybe our defensive dominance continues too.

We’ll see what we do though. I think the best answer is probably in the middle. Certainly isn’t running hurry up all game but I don’t think these 8 minute drives are necessarily the answer either.

Will be interesting to see if we change our personnel approach in the red zone too. Also we don’t throw jump balls to JJ as much as you’d think either.
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2025 Cotton Bowl: #2 tOSU vs #10 Miami-FL, Wed 12/31 7:30 ET at JerryWorld

RB said it. But to answer your question of course I’d be okay with it if we were finishing drives with 7. However our red zone issues as RB pointed out can backfire if we are getting nothing at the end of a drive. With this offense I would think we would want as many cracks at a team as we can get if we aren’t going to be efficient.

The longer a game goes where it’s 3-0 or 7-0 or 10-6 at half time the more it benefits the other team. All it takes is one busted coverage at its 13-10.

We have a defense that hasn’t given up 17 all year. Force a team to do something we have prevented all year. Surely that’s not by scoring 10-17 points ourselves. We have too many explosive play makers to slow play it.

I love this approach vs Ohio, Purdue, UCLA, and Rutgers.

But I want to see the offense that took the field vs Tennessee, Oregon, UGA, Clemson etc. Go up 14-0 in the first and watch a team panic themselves into a crimson avalanche

Well to the first point you are correct, finish a drive with points is better than ending a drive with no points, I'm sure most people would agree with that.

The rest of what you are describing is an execution failure, not a failure due to pace. Each team is going to get ~10-12 possessions per game. The opportunity to execute your offense and score 27+ points isn't constrained by going at a slower pace. It's constrained by your execution.

So a 3-0 game is a higher risk to go against you, again you've picked up on the risk element of the opponent getting lucky while on offense but if you were efficient in your use of the 10-12 possessions you wouldn't have only 3 points.

If the logic doesn't make sense to you go look up the stats. The correlation between numbers of plays and scoring is low, something like .20 ish, the correlation between efficiency (EPA) and scoring is very high, something like .70ish.

Going faster while struggling with execution is the exact recipe to give your opponent more opportunity to beat you.
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2025 Cotton Bowl: #2 tOSU vs #10 Miami-FL, Wed 12/31 7:30 ET at JerryWorld

That's the thing, we gotta be better in the redzone against legit defenses to do the slow play on offense and I'm not too confident there. Otherwise the defense gets a lot of pressure on not giving up points if the offense takes a super long drive for only 3 points (or in several cases no points at all). And playing with very slow tempo on offense is leaving defenses with plenty of time to sub and diagnose what is in front of them.

When we face an offense that is worth a damn and plays with tempo, we've gotta be able to move the ball quicker and be efficient playing at a higher tempo. IU was the only one we played this year that has an offense that exposed the problem with the slow play on offense, so even if we start with that approach I hope we're ready to adapt with a higher tempo of play if the circumstances dictates it.

All that being said, I like the match ups here on paper nearly everywhere except our OL vs their defensive front. We've got a good OL but we need elite play now. My very early prediction is OSU 27 - Miami 17.

We should probably have a separate thread on this.

Tempo and execution are two completely different things and people are mixing them up. You can go fast and execute, you can go slow and execute. Efficiency is how well you execute, tempo is just the speed with which you do it.

The other logical fallacy is more reps = more opportunity for success. That is true if risk in actual football was linear, it is not. If you somehow had a per flip advantage in coin flips then yes, you want more flips. That is not true in football because when you, by rule of the game, have to play defense after being on offense, the risk is no longer linear in your favor, it's asymmetrical. Every rep on defense, no matter how good you are, introduces a little more opportunity for random variance to work in favor of your opponent and that is exactly what the less talented team needs, more opportunity to get lucky.

Bottom line is if you think going up tempo gives you some kind of tactical advantage (substitution packages or whatever) then it's ok to do it in situational applications (early in game, before the half, late if trailing) but that isn't what people here are saying.

People here saw the one time the efficiency strategy failed, because of poor execution, and confuse result (poor execution) with process (efficient offense). So it becomes "if we went slow and lost, then if we went faster we win" then because they give no credence to the downside of going faster (still failing because of poor execution-the real problem) they create this "faster = win" fallacy.

It's this simple, every play has an outcome, that outcome is comprised of skill + luck. That's it. When you have more skill, you want to suppress luck. When you are on defense in football, no matter how skilled-luck is there and is your enemy. It is the oxygen the less skilled opponent needs to breathe enough to possibly win the fight. When you rob them of those offensive possessions, you rob them of the oxygen they need to have a chance to beat you.

TL;DR- Your ideal path to victory as the more skilled team is to have as many offensive possessions (not plays) in which you have the ball as long as possible and score some points. Empty TOP is like a turnover (in the red zone it should be counted as a turnover because it has the same effect on the game shape)...SO THAT....you play defense as few amount of times as possible.

If otoh, you are the underdog or are behind then you need the random variance (luck) opportunities and you have to go fast to get more plays.

So remember the old saying that when your opponent is making a mistake, don't stop him. If the more skilled team is going faster while struggling with execution then don't stop them. They are helping you out, which is exactly what some people here are advocating. They just don't know it.
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2025 Cotton Bowl: #2 tOSU vs #10 Miami-FL, Wed 12/31 7:30 ET at JerryWorld

I agree with a lot of what you said. You can't expect the defense to play perfect and expect to win the next 3 games. I dont want to put this out there, but at anytime a guy can slip, or get tripped and then your in trouble.

I do kinda disagree that IU exposed anything. (Ok maybe the right side of the oline.) Otherwise it took 5+ perfect throws from the Heisman winner to put up a measly 13 points. And we still missed a 29yd field goal to tie it. Point is it takes a GREAT not good qb performance, and tons of small mistakes on special teams and offense for this team to lose.

I just dont think IU can hold us to 10 points again, and I dont thing Mendoza can play much better against this juggernaut defense.
So my only concern is Georgia, as I have only watched them play in the SEC championship this year, and they looked very physical and fast.

Miami prediction. 35-7. If they couldn't score against TA&M they are lucky I am giving them 7.
Couldn’t agree more and said as such in my last post. Being in a slow developing 3 possessions a half game is begging to lose 13-10 etc due to a bust in coverage or a bad penalty etc. There’s this reliance on the defense because they’re so good in my opinion.

But like Day said before Oregon “this doesn’t have to be close”.

I also agree that Indiana didn’t do anything that exposed us. Got stopped inside the 10 3 different times and with a bit of luck that games 28-13.
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2025 Cotton Bowl: #2 tOSU vs #10 Miami-FL, Wed 12/31 7:30 ET at JerryWorld

would you be ok with a 9 minute drive that ended in a TD in the same scenario?
That's the thing, we gotta be better in the redzone against legit defenses to do the slow play on offense and I'm not too confident there. Otherwise the defense gets a lot of pressure on not giving up points if the offense takes a super long drive for only 3 points (or in several cases no points at all). And playing with very slow tempo on offense is leaving defenses with plenty of time to sub and diagnose what is in front of them.

When we face an offense that is worth a damn and plays with tempo, we've gotta be able to move the ball quicker and be efficient playing at a higher tempo. IU was the only one we played this year that has an offense that exposed the problem with the slow play on offense, so even if we start with that approach I hope we're ready to adapt with a higher tempo of play if the circumstances dictates it.

All that being said, I like the match ups here on paper nearly everywhere except our OL vs their defensive front. We've got a good OL but we need elite play now. My very early prediction is OSU 27 - Miami 17.
RB said it. But to answer your question of course I’d be okay with it if we were finishing drives with 7. However our red zone issues as RB pointed out can backfire if we are getting nothing at the end of a drive. With this offense I would think we would want as many cracks at a team as we can get if we aren’t going to be efficient.

The longer a game goes where it’s 3-0 or 7-0 or 10-6 at half time the more it benefits the other team. All it takes is one busted coverage at its 13-10.

We have a defense that hasn’t given up 17 all year. Force a team to do something we have prevented all year. Surely that’s not by scoring 10-17 points ourselves. We have too many explosive play makers to slow play it.

I love this approach vs Ohio, Purdue, UCLA, and Rutgers.

But I want to see the offense that took the field vs Tennessee, Oregon, UGA, Clemson etc. Go up 14-0 in the first and watch a team panic themselves into a crimson avalanche
Upvote 0

2025 Cotton Bowl: #2 tOSU vs #10 Miami-FL, Wed 12/31 7:30 ET at JerryWorld

That's the thing, we gotta be better in the redzone against legit defenses to do the slow play on offense and I'm not too confident there. Otherwise the defense gets a lot of pressure on not giving up points if the offense takes a super long drive for only 3 points (or in several cases no points at all). And playing with very slow tempo on offense is leaving defenses with plenty of time to sub and diagnose what is in front of them.

When we face an offense that is worth a damn and plays with tempo, we've gotta be able to move the ball quicker and be efficient playing at a higher tempo. IU was the only one we played this year that has an offense that exposed the problem with the slow play on offense, so even if we start with that approach I hope we're ready to adapt with a higher tempo of play if the circumstances dictates it.

All that being said, I like the match ups here on paper nearly everywhere except our OL vs their defensive front. We've got a good OL but we need elite play now. My very early prediction is OSU 27 - Miami 17.
I agree with a lot of what you said. You can't expect the defense to play perfect and expect to win the next 3 games. I dont want to put this out there, but at anytime a guy can slip, or get tripped and then your in trouble.

I do kinda disagree that IU exposed anything. (Ok maybe the right side of the oline.) Otherwise it took 5+ perfect throws from the Heisman winner to put up a measly 13 points. And we still missed a 29yd field goal to tie it. Point is it takes a GREAT not good qb performance, and tons of small mistakes on special teams and offense for this team to lose.

I just dont think IU can hold us to 10 points again, and I dont thing Mendoza can play much better against this juggernaut defense.
So my only concern is Georgia, as I have only watched them play in the SEC championship this year, and they looked very physical and fast.

Miami prediction. 35-7. If they couldn't score against TA&M they are lucky I am giving them 7.
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2025 Cotton Bowl: #2 tOSU vs #10 Miami-FL, Wed 12/31 7:30 ET at JerryWorld

would you be ok with a 9 minute drive that ended in a TD in the same scenario?
That's the thing, we gotta be better in the redzone against legit defenses to do the slow play on offense and I'm not too confident there. Otherwise the defense gets a lot of pressure on not giving up points if the offense takes a super long drive for only 3 points (or in several cases no points at all). And playing with very slow tempo on offense is leaving defenses with plenty of time to sub and diagnose what is in front of them.

When we face an offense that is worth a damn and plays with tempo, we've gotta be able to move the ball quicker and be efficient playing at a higher tempo. IU was the only one we played this year that has an offense that exposed the problem with the slow play on offense, so even if we start with that approach I hope we're ready to adapt with a higher tempo of play if the circumstances dictates it.

All that being said, I like the match ups here on paper nearly everywhere except our OL vs their defensive front. We've got a good OL but we need elite play now. My very early prediction is OSU 27 - Miami 17.
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