I think they will get to the elite 8, but Iowa State may be a bad matchup for them. That is a team that scares me the most. Texas Tech does not match up well with Michigan. If Toppin was healthy, then we are talking about a different scenario. Alabama can knock out anybody in this tournament, or they can get upset in the first round.
The Cason injury is really affecting this team, and they haven't been the same since the Illinois game. The versatility he offered to this team is greatly missed which gave May a lot of flexibility with rotations. Dusty May's rotations and Yaxel stepping up will determine if they can make a deep Final 4 run or get bounced early.