Ohio State v. Iowa: 2024 game preview and prediction
Brett Ludwiczak via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
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The Buckeyes host the Hawkeyes for the second time in three years.
Following their first road game of the season,
Ohio State returns home to host the
Iowa Hawkeyes on Saturday afternoon. The Buckeyes are coming off a 38-7 win over Michigan State last week, and this week’s game against the Hawkeyes will be Ohio State’s final contest before they head out west to battle the Oregon Ducks in a much-anticipated Big Ten showdown.
The history between the Buckeyes and Hawkeyes
This will be the second time in the last three years Iowa has made the journey to Columbus.
Back in 2022, the Buckeyes used four Noah Ruggles field goals, along with a Tommy Eichenberg interception return for a touchdown, to take a 26-10 lead into the halftime break. C.J. Stroud extended Ohio State’s lead with four second half touchdown passes in the 54-10 win. The Buckeye defense made life miserable for a listless Iowa offense by forcing six turnovers in the game, extending Ohio State’s edge in the series to 48-15-3.
The last time Iowa won in Columbus was back in 1991 when they beat the Buckeyes 16-9. At home, Ohio State is 31-9-1 against Iowa. This will be just the fourth meeting between the schools since 2013. The only win by the Hawkeyes during that span was the infamous 55-24 drubbing in Iowa City.
Last time out for Ohio State
Ohio State looked shaky at times early on against Michigan State but they weren’t really challenged by the Spartans last week. The Buckeyes never trailed in the game, scoring 31 unanswered points after Michigan State closed the gap to 10-7 in the first half. Jim Knowles’ defense not only gave up just 60 yards after halftime, they kept Michigan State from scoring on three of their four trips inside the red zone.
Ohio State forced three turnovers in the game, securing their 29th straight win when they have forced at least three turnovers. The win was also Ryan Day’s 42nd straight victory over unranked opponents.
The offense continues to roll
The big story coming out of Saturday night’s win was the performance of wide receiver Jeremiah Smith.
The true freshman not only scored the first rushing touchdown of his career, he electrified the college football world by making two ridiculous one-handed catches on the same drive late in the first half. The second of those catches was a touchdown pass from Devin Brown, extending Ohio State’s lead to 24-7. Earlier this week, Smith was named the Big Ten Freshman of the Week.
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While Smith received all the headlines in the victory, Emeka Egbuka was actually the team’s leading receiver in the game, finishing with seven catches for 96 yards and a touchdown. Egbuka is now 34 yards away from passing Doug Donley for 10th place on the school’s career receiving yardage rankings, and 77 yards away from moving ahead of Santonio Holmes. Carnell Tate also had a solid game against the Spartans with three catches for 52 yards, while tight end Gee Scott Jr. scored the first touchdown of the game for the Buckeyes.
Will Howard is running an Ohio State offense that is fifth in the country, averaging 534.8 yards per game. Through the first four games of the season, Howard has 11 total touchdowns, with three of those scores coming on the ground. Late in the second quarter last week, Howard took a hard hit that forced him to the sidelines for a few plays, but he returned to the game in the second half and there is no worry about any lingering effects heading into this week’s game against the Hawkeyes.
A fun matchup on Saturday afternoon is going to be Ohio State’s rushing attack against the Iowa defense. The Buckeyes are averaging 227 per game rushing this year, which ranks 14th in the country. On the other side, the Hawkeyes have yet to give up a rushing touchdown or allow an opponent to run for more than 100 yards in a game this season. The combination of Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson will be the best backs Iowa has had to try and tame this season.
The dynamic duo was actually pretty quiet last week, combining for just 123 yards on 18 carries, with neither back finding the end zone after they each scored two rushing touchdowns in each of the previous two games. Henderson did become the 12th Buckeyes to reach 3,000 rushing yards in his career, and is now 56 yards from passing Pepe Pearson for 11th all-time in school history. The senior will be looking to have more success against Iowa than he did in 2022 when he gained just 38 yards on 11 carries.
Another impressive performance from the defense
The Ohio State defense bent but didn’t break a number of times in the first half against Michigan State, allowing the Spartans to get into the red zone four times, but only allowing points on one of those drives. The Buckeyes forced fumbles twice inside the 20, while standing up Aidan Chiles on fourth down in the other unsuccessful red zone trip for the Spartans.
Entering this week, Ohio State is allowing just 6.8 points per game, which is the lowest mark in the country. Through four games the Buckeyes have allowed just 27 points, which is their fifth-lowest total through four games since 1950.
All three levels of the defense played major roles in shutting down Michigan State last week. Leading the Buckeyes in tackles was safety Caleb Downs, who finished with six tackles, which is his highest total since transferring into the program from Alabama in the offseason. Cornerback Denzel Burke grabbed his second interception of the season, and Lathan Ransom forced his second fumble of the year to round out the notable contributions from the secondary in the game.
Leading the team with 23 tackles so far this year is linebacker Sonny Styles. After missing the first game of the season, Cody Simon has been rounding into form in his final season as a Buckeye as the veteran of the unit. Arvell Reese is looking like the future at the position with 15 tackles and two TFLs. Reese has seen his role continue to expand each game since the beginning of the season. C.J. Hicks has also provided some depth at the position.
The defensive line received a boost last week with the return of defensive tackle Tyleik Williams after he missed the game against Marshall. Ohio State’s defense has 13 sacks so far this season, with J.T. Tuimoloau leading the charge with 2.5 sacks. Along with those sacks, the Buckeyes have also recorded 29 tackles for loss. With playmakers at each level of the defense, it is easy to see why opponents are having such a tough time putting points on the scoreboard against the Buckeyes.
Ferentz keeps racking up wins
Iowa enters Saturday’s game coming off a bye week following a 31-14 win at Minnesota to reclaim Floyd of Rosedale. The Hawkeyes are 3-1 on the season, with their only loss coming to Iowa State in a game where they blew a second half lead in Iowa City.
Head coach Kirk Ferentz currently has 199 career wins, which is tied with Amos Alonzo Stagg for second-most by a Big Ten coach. With seven more victories Ferentz will pass legendary Ohio State head coach Woody Hayes for the most wins ever by a coach from the conference.
Ground game fuels the Iowa offense
For Ohio State to win this game, they’ll need to slow down Kaleb Johnson, who has been one of the best running backs in the country this season. Johnson is coming off a performance against Minnesota that saw him run for 206 yards and three touchdowns, earning him Doak Walker National Running Back of the Week honors.
The Iowa running back has rushed for at least 100 yards in all four games this season, becoming the first Hawkeyes since Mark Weisman in 2014 to reach triple digits on the ground in the season’s first four games.
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The running back from the Cincinnati area has been able to break off a bunch of big runs this year, with 12 rushes over 20 yards and four touchdowns runs of at least 25 yards. As a team, Iowa has rushed for at least 200 yards in all four games this season, marking the first time since 2013 they have reached that mark in the first third of the regular season.
Taking the snaps for Iowa will be former Michigan quarterback Cade McNamara. After losing the starting quarterback job to J.J. McCarthy in Ann Arbor, McNamara found a new home in Iowa City but his 2023 season was cut short due to injury. Even though his play has been questioned at times, the most important stat when it comes to McNamara is he is 20-5 as a starter.
So far this season, McNamara has completed 64 of his 102 pass attempts for 588 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions. McNamara’s only start against Ohio State came in 2021, throwing for 159 in Michigan’s win over the Buckeyes.
Even though Iowa prefers to run the football, they do have some capable targets in the passing game. Leading the team in receptions is Northwestern transfer Jacob Gill, who has 13 catches for 145 yards and a touchdown. The most familiar name catching footballs for Iowa is tight end Luke Lachey, the son of Ohio State offensive lineman Jim Lachey. Addison Ostrenga is the third Hawkeye with at least 10 catches this year, while Reece Vander Zee has a team-high two touchdown catches.
The Hawkeyes aren’t going to put 50 points on the scoreboard, but they are at least making strides under new offensive coordinator Tim Lester. Already this season, Iowa has two games with at least 400 yards of offense. The last time the Hawkeyes had two games of at least 400 offensive yards was back in 2021. If Iowa can get at least decent play from their offense in combination with their stingy defense, they could cause problems for a lot of teams around the country.
A top tier defense
The calling card of the Hawkeyes is Phil Parker’s defense, which is annually one of the best units in the country. Iowa is in the midst of a streak that has seen them allow less than 400 yards of offense to opponents in 32 consecutive games.
When Iowa and Ohio State met back in 2022, the Buckeyes finished with 360 yards of offense. As mentioned earlier, the run defense of the Hawkeyes has been especially tough to crack, allowing less than 100 yards in all four games this year, as well as no rushing touchdowns.
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The strength of the Iowa defense is at linebacker with Jay Higgins and Nick Jackson. Higgins currently leads the team with 34 tackles and he also has a nose for the football, picking off two passes and a forced fumble. The senior has 251 career tackles, which seem like a lot but actually is over 200 less than Jackson, who is approaching 500 career stops. Jackson started his career at Virginia and has 25 tackles this season.
The Hawkeyes have a number of defensive linemen who have done a great job at creating chaos in the backfield over the first four games. Leading the charge for the unit is defensive tackle Aaron Graves, who has a team-high three sacks. Defensive ends Ethan Hackett, Brian Allen, and Max Llewellyn sit just behind Graves with 3.5 tackles for loss and two sacks each. Yahya Black has teamed with Graves on the interior of the line to create problems for opponents with 11 tackles and 2.5 TFLs.
While the secondary of the Hawkeyes will have their hands full with Ohio State’s receivers, they are a talented group that can make plays. Sebastian Castro is a sure tackler with 17 stops so far this year and has forced a fumble. Cornerback Jermari Harris leads the team with two picks. The safety spots are manned by Quinn Schulte and Xavier Nwankpa, who was the highest-rated recruit to ever commit to Iowa. TJ Hall will also see significant time in Saturday’s game at the cornerback spot opposite Harris.
Prediction
The Hawkeyes are undoubtedly going to be the toughest challenge Ohio State has faced this year, and will be a great tuneup for next week’s Oregon game. If Iowa had a little more to offer on offense they would have the capability to take the Buckeyes down to the wire. The Hawkeyes just aren’t equipped to handle a deficit if Ohio State can put a couple of early scores on the board.
Where the Buckeyes have to be careful is they can’t let Kaleb Johnson get going early on the ground. If Johnson is able to break off some runs, it will not only wear on the defense, it will keep Ohio State’s potent offense off the field. Plus, if the Hawkeyes can run the football more than they throw it they’ll have a better chance at putting a scare into the Buckeyes. Cade McNamara has the ability to make some plays with his arm, but he also can be forced into mistakes with the relentless pass rush of J.T. Tuimoloau, Jack Sawyer, and the rest of the Ohio State defense.
The scary thing is we likely haven’t even seen close to Chip Kelly’s full playbook yet since the level of competition Ohio State has played has been so weak so far this season. Since Iowa possesses the toughest defense the Buckeyes have seen so far, expect to see a few more wrinkles this week without giving away too much ahead of Oregon next week. This game could play out a bit like the 2022 contest with Iowa hanging around early before the Buckeyes pull away in the second half.
LGHL score prediction: Ohio State 34, Iowa 14
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