COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Could it be ? OSU-Michigan for BCS title?
Tuesday, October 24, 2006
Tim May
THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH
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Jerry Palm is no palm reader. As the originator of CollegeBCS.com and CollegeRPI.com, he simply looks at numbers concerning college football and basketball teams and tries to make sense of them all.
What he sees when he looks at Ohio State and Michigan at this point in the football season, headed toward their showdown Nov. 18 in Ohio Stadium, is intriguing: a possible rematch in the Bowl Championship Series national title game Jan. 8.
OSU and Michigan are No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in the BCS ratings this week and appear to have smooth sailing toward their regular-season finale. That?s why murmurs started a couple of weeks ago that the two teams might be so good, they could rise in the BCS ratings to be paired again in the title game.
"Oh, it could happen," Palm said yesterday from his home in The Region, Ind. "But a lot of other things have to happen first, obviously."
Chief among those, he said, is a favorable result in The Game.
"I think it is more likely to have a chance if it is a competitive game and Michigan loses, because with it being a road game for the Wolverines, they?d have a better chance of not being punished too badly in the two polls," he said of the USA Today coaches poll and the Harris Interactive poll, two of the BCS formula?s three components, the third being an average of six computer rating services.
"If it happens like that, then Ohio State and Michigan could sit back on the couch for two weeks and watch the rest of the scenario play out," Palm said. "All of the other teams in the running for that No. 2 spot will still have games to play."
First, know this: Ohio State, Michigan and Southern California control their destinies. If two of those three win out, they will meet in the national title game.
But consider that current BCS No. 3 Southern Cal closes with a three-game run against California (Nov. 18), Notre Dame (Nov. 25) and UCLA (Dec. 2). Fourth-ranked West Virginia meets Big East rival/ No. 8 Louisville on Nov. 2 and has a game against unbeaten Rutgers on Dec. 2.
Fifth-ranked Auburn already has its fingers crossed because of its loss to Arkansas. Auburn needs to win out and Arkansas to lose twice for the Tigers to get a shot at the Southeastern Conference title game.
Auburn already has beaten Florida, No. 6 in the BCS, but the one-loss Gators appear to be more in control of their fate than the other one-loss teams, including No. 7 Texas. If the Gators streak through and win the SEC title game, and those above them have lost, they likely would get that second spot in the national championship game ahead of the OSUMichigan loser, Palm said.
If Florida loses again and the Big East doesn?t produce an unbeaten champion, "People keep talking about Notre Dame winning out and getting that title game spot," Palm said. "But let?s say Michigan loses to Ohio State ? how can a poll voter in good conscience put Notre Dame ahead of Michigan after the way the Wolverines destroyed them back in September? "
So Ohio State-Michigan II could happen. But does Palm think it will?
"No, I don?t," he said. "I think there is a good chance there will be a one-loss winner of the SEC, and I also think Southern Cal has a good chance to go undefeated."
But if it works out for an all-Big Ten final, a sequel to The Game, Palm would have no complaint.
"Why could you not have a situation where the two best teams in the country are in the same conference?" he said. "It would be kind of a fluke, but it?s not impossible at all that the two best teams in the country this year are Ohio State and Michigan."
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