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Game Thread THE GAME: #1 Ohio State 42, #2 Michigan 39 (11/18/06)

In my opinion, every ounce of pressure is on Michigan...especially Lloyd Carr. I know tOSU has the #1 ranking, I know Columbus is a pressure-cooker, I know there is a dark history known as "the 90's."

However, I also know that a few short months ago, Michigan Alumni were plotting a coup d'etat. I know that the game is in Columbus and that is huge. I know that Jim Tressel seemingly has Lloyd's number. I also know that JT is the epitome of calm...and that calmness breeds a perfect confidence in this team...not outwardly cocky, but that edge of security that lets the other sideline know they cannot afford to make a mistake.

Stats can paint a picture...and I expect this game to be close like always. However, one look into the eyes of the guys pushing the buttons and I know where my money will be. Michigan has shown their hand already...they've had to do so. They have seemingly reached their ceiling...have the Buckeyes?

History says no...
 
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Buckeye86;641166; said:
I think the key to this game will be for us to shut down the deep ball. When Henne isn't launching it deep to Manningham (or Braylon for that matter) he looks like shit trying to throw it to any other route, throwing it into the turf or behind or anywhere else but a nice pass most of the time, especially when he's under pressure.

I think Henne is better than his receivers most of the time, though. I've watched several games of tsun's, and seen multiple, multiple times where his receivers have dropped some good throws from him. He's a heck of lot more dangerous when his team actually can catch a pass. Manningham is still a question mark, and the only real consistent threat through the air. I watched the entire Iowa vs Tsun game, and although Arrington had a decent game, he doesn't make me nervous at all. Breaston was supposed to be a deadly weapon, but dances in circles until he's hit. They showed me on Saturday that they are just a bruiser when they don't have the deep threat to Manningham.

Contain Hart and don't allow a single deep ball to Mario, and this game won't even be close. I don't care if tsun has supposedly one of the best defenses in the league, they haven't beaten Troy Smith yet, and he had less to work with in the past on offense. They won't be able to contain Smith, and we'll score at least a touchdown per quarter. Throw in a field goal, and we've got 31. That's where I see tOSU sitting when the whistle blows.

Tsun will be struggling to put it in the end zone, but will find it at least once. They will use Manningham to stretch the field, but my confidence in Malcolm Jenkins is tremendous, as I see him as the best shutdown corner since Chris Gamble (and he may be better than him). Once the long ball is covered early, or possibly intercepted, the length of field they can attack is very limited. Tsun will want a low scoring game, but it won't happen. They'll score two touchdowns methodically on long drives depending completely on a healthy Michael Hart, and a couple of short passes that the scum receivers MAY catch. That's how I see it. Tsun will intermittently score 3 field goals, and the final will be 31-23, tOSU.

This is a pre-emptive prediction, but if both squads stay healthy and undefeated,

tOSU 31
Tsun 23
:osu:
 
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Since 2002, I've been a full-time subscriber to the "defense wins championships" belief. Both teams have awesome defenses. One leads the country in points-against. The other leads in rushing yards allowed.

Perhaps the best thing that could happen for Michigan is for their "pass-it-deep" receiver to be out. They have to fine-tune other aspects of their game in order to win these games. And the "pass-it-deep" game won't win the big games for Michigan. I don't know much about this "zone-blocking" deal. I understand the concept, but I don't know what opposing defenses need to do to stop it. But that (and many other reasons) is why I'm not a coach. I have full trust in Heacock and other defensive coaches to stop Michigan's offense.

Their first goal should be to stop that deep pass. I'm not so worried about that.

Next, stop Hart. This has me somewhat worried. I think he'll get a hundred yards. But the defense can't let Hart win the game.

After those two, I don't see Henne winning this game, himself.

Ohio State's offense then needs to beat Michigan's defense. The easy question is "How?" The easy answer is that they can easily stop half of Ohio State's offense. I think that Michigan's run defense won't give up many rushing yards to Pittman and the Wellses. And maybe Michigan hasn't faced an offensive line like Ohio State's, yet, but they've basically destroyed other offensive lines. Ohio State may have to count on a bunch of short passes. Get the ball to Ginn and Gonzalez, as well as screen passes to backs. Get the ball away from the defensive line, and I think that Ohio State can get a big, early lead. After that, Michigan will be forced to make Henne try to win the game. And, like I said, I don't think he can do that.

Ohio State takes an early lead, and they win comfortably.
Let Michigan stay in the game, and I've got a feeling that it'll be decided by 4 points or fewer.
 
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Zurp;641299; said:
I don't know much about this "zone-blocking" deal. I understand the concept, but I don't know what opposing defenses need to do to stop it. But that (and many other reasons) is why I'm not a coach. I have full trust in Heacock and other defensive coaches to stop Michigan's offense.

The best way to disrupt the zone block scheme is to properly pursue from the back side in my opinion. From my understanding of the scheme the O-Line all either block left or right and allow the running back to stretch it to the edge and make a cut when he finds some daylight. The biggest plays occur when the backside of the defense over pursues and the running back is able to cut back across the entire line, if the backside end and linebacker have over pursued or taken bad angles this leaves just a safety or corner between the running back and the endzone.

When properly defended, the front side of the defense jams up the line, forcing the running back to cut back where he will be imediately smacked by the pursuit from the backside. With the speed we have, especially in the middle of our D-Line, I think we'll get huge penetration against a zone blocking scheme and with the proper pursuit angles we'll be able to limit their running game big time.

Pitcock is made to disrupt the zone blocking scheme (think about that play he had against Okie State in the Alamo Bowl where he sliced through the line and made the tackle for a big loss, that was against a zone block scheme) he should have a huge day. And with the way Richardson has been playing these past few games, I can see him getting a lot of tackles coming down the line from the backside too.
 
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osugrad21;641199; said:
Playing Indiana the week before tOSU will actually help them out...They will see the elusive QB and experiment with various containment issues to polish what they want to do against the Bucks.

I am very sure that JT will have our guys loaded to hunt bear. It is becoming very apparent though, that TSUN isn't going to lay down and take it nicely. I see two scenarios.

Scenario 1: Carr has figured out that his job is on the line and he really does have some new offensive and defensive schemes just for The Game. The TSUN run defense is for real but I'm not sure they have an answer to our receiving corp. Our run defense will improve, but if Mike Hart is healthy, they will rush better than last year. In this scenario, The Game is a pretty close affair, with TSUN having as much as a 25% chance of winning.

Scenario 2: I strongly suspect that JT hasn't really taken the wraps off the offense yet. He's got his own special deck of cards to show. Our defense uses Minny to improve against the run and keeps showing steady improvement. In this scenario, The Game has the look of last year's Fiesta Bowl.

I think the truth is somewhere in between these two extremes and closer to Scenario 2. It will be a hard fought game, as it always is, but right now I think we will win by about ten points.
 
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Considering that this year is by far the most potent offense Tressel's has had going into the final two games, I feel pretty good with him and Troy at the helm. Tressel's teams have had their best games bowling and The Game.


...This does not bode well for tsun.
:osu:
 
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buckeye247;641082; said:
"Not so fast my friend". scUM offensive line is amazing at zone blocking i wouldnt predict us to win comfortably at all. We have yet to play an Offensive line that zone blocks. Minny does it sometimes but not enough to give us alot of practice for nov 18. I think this is the key to the game. If we can stop hart and nullify the zone blocking using alot of stunts and DE fallbacks i think we will have a great chance of winning.

Could be wrong, but didn't Texas do a lot of zone blocking on the 'zone read' play?
 
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DCBuckFan;641488; said:
Could be wrong, but didn't Texas do a lot of zone blocking on the 'zone read' play?
actually, not really... they mostly ran a counter and pulled the guard and tackle... they only ran the stretch play a couple times... i don't know if i posted it here, but after a debate on BN, i charted all of Texas' running plays... i'll see if i can find it.
 
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Some keys: tOSU is explosive yes scum has thrown the deep
ball to Manningham, but Osu's explosiveness is a big edge. Why? Because just because you can run on tOSU some it is hard to sustain a drive and score only running the ball. Trepasso needs to have a normal game for him. My only concern is the OL up to the task ..I think it is barring injury. So maybe tOSU 27- scum 13. If TS is totally on fire..it could be more.
 
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Onebuckfan;641587; said:
Some keys: tOSU is explosive yes scum has thrown the deep
ball to Manningham, but Osu's explosiveness is a big edge. Why? Because just because you can run on tOSU some it is hard to sustain a drive and score only running the ball. Trepasso needs to have a normal game for him. My only concern is the OL up to the task ..I think it is barring injury. So maybe tOSU 27- scum 13. If TS is totally on fire..it could be more.


Yeah, but you have to put in the fact that scum almost lost to Iowa on Saturday, and their defense wasn't even that good in the first place. I would have to go with more points with OSU because I think their running game, and their throwing game is going to be good. But you never know what kind of game Michigan is going to have...
 
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lvbuckeye;641556; said:
actually, not really... they mostly ran a counter and pulled the guard and tackle... they only ran the stretch play a couple times... i don't know if i posted it here, but after a debate on BN, i charted all of Texas' running plays... i'll see if i can find it.
nope... gone forever...
 
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THE GAME

On paper it is hard to give an edge. But their is 105K + reasons OSU wins. The other differences in my opinion is Troy Smith mobility vs Henne pocket passer. Michigan will screen pass OSU to death to get Hart away from our D-line which was pretty sucessful for Texas. Unbelievable Matchup especially if they can both take care of business down the stretch.
 
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