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QB CJ Stroud (All B1G, 2022 B1G QB of the Year, All-American, NFL OROY, Houston Texans)

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ScriptOhio said:
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i think we all know the answer to that question (Why isn’t Stroud in the Heisman conversation?).

inertia

It takes awhile for people to get noticed, especially when they stumble out of the gate, especially when they’re emerging from the shadow of two all time greats.

Even when that conversation starts in earnest, which I believe it will after the Indiana game, he’s going to have to overcome a serious objection. That objection might even be delaying the start of the conversation. I think we all know what that objection is.

degree of difficulty

No, I’m not talking about schedule. I’m talking about teammates. Stroud has better protection than other quarterbacks. He has a better running game than other quarterbacks. And it’s remotely possible that there’s a quarterback or two out there who doesn’t have quite as many weapons to throw the ball to as CJ Stroud does.

And it goes beyond teammates. Few other quarterbacks are put in a position to succeed play after play, game-plan after game-plan, like CJ Stroud is.

It will be a tough objection to overcome, not least because it’s legitimate.

It is undeniable though, that there are Heisman voters who simply vote for the QB of the best team, or the QB of the best offense, and the possibility remains that CJ will be the answer to those questions by the end of the year.

It is ironic that the best objection to his Heisman candidacy at this point may end up being the reason he wins it.
 
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DaddyBigBucks said:
i think we all know the answer to that question (Why isn’t Stroud in the Heisman conversation?).

inertia

It takes awhile for people to get noticed, especially when they stumble out of the gate, especially when they’re emerging from the shadow of two all time greats.

Even when that conversation starts in earnest, which I believe it will after the Indiana game, he’s going to have to overcome a serious objection. That objection might even be delaying the start of the conversation. I think we all know what that objection is.

degree of difficulty

No, I’m not talking about schedule. I’m talking about teammates. Stroud has better protection than other quarterbacks. He has a better running game than other quarterbacks. And it’s remotely possible that there’s a quarterback or two out there who doesn’t have quite as many weapons to throw the ball to as CJ Stroud does.

And it goes beyond teammates. Few other quarterbacks are put in a position to succeed play after play, game-plan after game-plan, like CJ Stroud is.

It will be a tough objection to overcome, not least because it’s legitimate.

It is undeniable though, that there are Heisman voters who simply vote for the QB of the best team, or the QB of the best offense, and the possibility remains that CJ will be the answer to those questions by the end of the year.

It is ironic that the best objection to his Heisman candidacy at this point may end up being the reason he wins it.
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Oklahoma says being a good system and having good players while playing weak D's apparently doesn't matter or after the first year or two people would have started Discounting their numbers as Riley's system. Apparently system only matters when you're a not a Blueblood or really good that year. See Hawaii qbs of the 00-10's
 
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He’s individually set up similarly to how we are as a team. Take care of your business the rest of the season and you’re there. Criticism and doubts don’t/won’t matter. Post-Indy (fuck Purdue), there’s nothing but ranked teams ahead of us.
 
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Zurp said:
Expected Points Added per play??? I had to look that up.
https://www.the33rdteam.com/epa-explained/

So Graham Mertz isn't losing points every play, or even giving the other team points every play. But he's making his team less likely to score with each successive play, on average. Makes sense.
Click to expand...

If that’s not an indictment, I’m not sure what is. And he’s the best they got?
 
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I ran some DSA on Ohio State's passing game this year. What those numbers reveal implies the same thing your eyes tell you when you watch him play.

Overall:

For all pass attempts this season, thrown by anyone:

125 for 192 for 2113 yards, 20 TD and 4 picks for a rating of 187.756

Not bad

But then:

46% more yards than opponents give up through the air against all other FBS competition
49% more yards per attempt than opponents give up against all other FBS competition
45% higher passing efficiency than the combined passing efficiency by all FBS quarterbacks against Ohio State opponents

That is ridiculous
Those numbers are Heisman worthy
Troy Smith's differential numbers never approached that level

What's more, numbers that outlandish really skew people's idea of what kind of defense you faced.

Here is what happens to opponents' defensive passing efficiency if you remove the Ohio State game:
  • Minnesota goes from a ranking of 42 to 17 (25 spots)
  • Oregon goes from a ranking of 57 to 32 (25 spots)
  • Rutgers goes from a ranking of 90 to 53 (37 spots)
  • Maryland goes from a ranking of 91 to 54 (37 spots)
Tulsa actually moved UP from 67 to 63 by playing the Buckeyes, but that was because of his shoulder, I do not doubt. Since that game his LOWEST differential passing efficiency has been 1.62 (62% better than the average FBS QB that Maryland has faced).

The other outlier is Akron. They would only move up 5 spots (from 125 to 120) if they hadn't played the Buckeyes. A few things about that though:
  • At the bottom of the rankings (any statistical rankings) there are often large gaps between adjacently ranked teams. Moving 5 spots is due to a big change in PE.
  • This moves Ohio State's ENTIRE opposing defense ranking down substantially. As is, our opponents combined pass defense has a rating of 129.917, which would rank 59th (above average). If you back out Akron's numbers from the totals, the combined passing efficiency moves down to 124.229, which would rank 21 spots higher at 38th in the country in defensive passing efficiency.
  • Most importantly, CJ Stroud did not play in that game.
I will close with this little nugget. TTUN is currently ranked 39th in the country in defensive passing efficiency for FBS-Only games (all FCS games removed from stats for every team). By backing out the stats for Akron, you are left with the stats for all of the teams that CJ Stroud played. The upshot then, is that CJ Stroud is #2 in the country for Passing Efficiency in FBS competition, while having played defenses that collectively rank higher than TTUN in DPE
 
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