I ran some DSA on Ohio State's passing game this year. What those numbers reveal implies the same thing your eyes tell you when you watch him play.
Overall:
For all pass attempts this season, thrown by anyone:
125 for 192 for 2113 yards, 20 TD and 4 picks for a rating of 187.756
Not bad
But then:
46% more yards than opponents give up through the air against all other FBS competition
49% more yards per attempt than opponents give up against all other FBS competition
45% higher passing efficiency than the combined passing efficiency by all FBS quarterbacks against Ohio State opponents
That is ridiculous
Those numbers are Heisman worthy
Troy Smith's differential numbers never approached that level
What's more, numbers that outlandish really skew people's idea of what kind of defense you faced.
Here is what happens to opponents' defensive passing efficiency if you remove the Ohio State game:
- Minnesota goes from a ranking of 42 to 17 (25 spots)
- Oregon goes from a ranking of 57 to 32 (25 spots)
- Rutgers goes from a ranking of 90 to 53 (37 spots)
- Maryland goes from a ranking of 91 to 54 (37 spots)
Tulsa actually moved UP from 67 to 63 by playing the Buckeyes, but that was because of his shoulder, I do not doubt. Since that game his LOWEST differential passing efficiency has been 1.62 (62% better than the average FBS QB that Maryland has faced).
The other outlier is Akron. They would only move up 5 spots (from 125 to 120) if they hadn't played the Buckeyes. A few things about that though:
- At the bottom of the rankings (any statistical rankings) there are often large gaps between adjacently ranked teams. Moving 5 spots is due to a big change in PE.
- This moves Ohio State's ENTIRE opposing defense ranking down substantially. As is, our opponents combined pass defense has a rating of 129.917, which would rank 59th (above average). If you back out Akron's numbers from the totals, the combined passing efficiency moves down to 124.229, which would rank 21 spots higher at 38th in the country in defensive passing efficiency.
- Most importantly, CJ Stroud did not play in that game.
I will close with this little nugget. TTUN is currently ranked
39th in the country in defensive passing efficiency for FBS-Only games (all FCS games removed from stats for every team). By backing out the stats for Akron, you are left with the stats for all of the teams that CJ Stroud played. The upshot then, is that CJ Stroud is #2 in the country for Passing Efficiency in FBS competition, while having played defenses that collectively rank higher than TTUN in DPE