I think this thread is funny.
http://bwi.forums.rivals.com/threads/bowl-outlook.58718/
I already forget what it was about, but it evolves into whether Penn State will ever be an elite team. I think one guy says that they'll be stuck as a Tier 2 team - Top 10-20, and "occasionally" Top 5. No real arguments from them. (None from me, either.) But it sounds like they're just now coming to that realization.
Since joining the Big Ten (1993), they've finished with the following rankings (AP):
7, 2, 13, 7, 16, 17, 11, NR, NR, 16, NR, NR, 3, 24, 24, 8, 9, NR, NR, *, *, NR
(source: wikipedia. Starting with 1993 season, I just clicked the "next season button".)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Penn_State_Nittany_Lions_football_team
So in 22 years, they were eligible for ranking 20 of them. They finished ranked in 13 of those 20. Of those 13, they finished Top 5 twice (1994 and 2005), and Top 10 6 times (including the 2 Top 5 finishes). 7 times Ranked 11-25. I'd say that they meet their qualifications for "occasionally" getting a "lightning in the bottle" season in the Top 5, but they are not very consistently ending in the 6-25 range, as they were ranked in just over half of the seasons when they actually were eligible to be ranked.
I think to qualify for "Tier 2" they need to be better.