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Ohio State 85, Tennessee 84 (final)

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OSUBasketballJunkie;787072; said:
One thing I think we have in our favor is the 2-3 zone we have used the past 10 games that has really been effective, we didn't use this against UT if I remember correctly, we have the quickness on the perimeter to control their outside guys in my opinion. Oden will get his shots, he will have to hit more than this past weekend or we could be in for a battle.

Lofton will get his points, we held him to 21 in the first meeting but it was the rest of UT's shooters to get going that was the difference in the game. Remember that we were up by double digits midway through the second half of the first game but had some untimely turnovers and silly turnovers that got them back in the game.....we handle their pressure, we win.
Click to expand...

I'm still learning about the detailed nuances about basketball, but I feel like he 2-3 zone I saw against Wisconsin in the Big 10 title game really helps Tennessee in this match up. Wayne Chism and Ryan Childress are both 6-9 post players who have great stroke from the perimeter (for their size). We have literally 5 guys who are legitimate deep threats and another in Ramar Smith who can hit open threes, but also break down his man, drive fearlessly into Oden's neighborhood and draw fouls.
 
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We havent seen it and i dont see it coming this game either, but a 1-3-1 might be a pretty good defense against the Tennessee offense. Oden in the middle and Hunter on the baseline. Our guards are quick enough to get to the 3 shooter and Oden would nullify the paint. Hunter providing some trapping on the wings might cause more turnovers for our guys. Any thoughts on how this might work out?
 
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VolinArizona;787219; said:
I'm still learning about the detailed nuances about basketball, but I feel like he 2-3 zone I saw against Wisconsin in the Big 10 title game really helps Tennessee in this match up. Wayne Chism and Ryan Childress are both 6-9 post players who have great stroke from the perimeter (for their size). We have literally 5 guys who are legitimate deep threats and another in Ramar Smith who can hit open threes, but also break down his man, drive fearlessly into Oden's neighborhood and draw fouls.
Click to expand...


I don't understand why you think playing a zone defense is a bad thing. If they have two guys who are 6'9 you certainly do not want Oden going out onto the floor and trying to guard them. That would leave the lane wide open for cutters and take away any rebounding advantage that we might have. I certainly do not know as much as Matta but I think playing man-to-man against the Vols would be a big mistake unless we get behind and his court dictates it. The only way I would play man-to-man against these guys would be if I had the same lineup in the game that was in during the overtime against X and that would take away the biggest advantage we have on offense. I think having played them earlier in the season and the fact that we had a very difficult game this past Saturday will get the guys attention.
 
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Color me pessimistic, but I see UT (the REAL one:tongue2:) shooting us out of a zone pretty quickly in this game. I'd rather have Oden out there guarding Chism at the arc than Lofton and Co getting open three's all game.
 
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I see two minor keys to the game, that is keys beyond JO4H's central goal of more points.

Tennessee lost 7 of the 13 games in which their Pomeroy effective field goal (eFG) percentage was below 50%. Their game against the Buckeyes was one of their seven lowest eFG games, at 44.7%. Effective field goal percentage is like regular field goal percentage except that it gives 50% more credit for made three-pointers.


eFG% = (.5*3FGM + FGM) / FGA


Lofton and JaJuan Smith are the two players who are most effective shooters. They put up more than 50% of the threes that Tennessee takes and hit more than a third of them.


Making sure that they don't get easy looks from the perimeter will be key, and no defensive lapses in that endeavor, will be key. Chism and the other Smith also have hit about 30% of their threes, so perimeter play will be essential.

That said, on the year, we have shot threes as good or better than UT. We also have improved our free throw rate, which captures a team's ability to score from the line.


FTRateoff = FTM / FGAFTRatedef = FTA / FGA


In losses to North Carolina and Florida, our FTR was below .20. It has only been below .30 twice since mid-February (the last two Wisconsin games).

What determines if we win?

Tennessee likes a fast-paced game and rank in the top 20 when pace of game is measured. Our rank is in the 230's adn all three of our losses came in our seven fastest paced games. Tennessee has lost fast and slow paced games and no pattern emerges.

So, we must slow this game down and work at our own pace, not allowing their full court press to rattle us and change our tempo.


Correlations
to OE to DE
Pace: -0.12 -0.08

eFG%: +0.71* -0.06
OR%: +0.45* -0.15
TO%: -0.24 -0.14
FTR: +0.12 +0.13

Opp eFG%: +0.18 +0.82*
Opp OR%: -0.02 +0.21
Opp TO%: +0.16 -0.37
Opp FTR: -0.15 +0.48*

Bold values are significant with a 95% confidence
Bold* values are significant with a 99% confidence


Limiting our opponents eFG is the most important determinant, closely followed by making sure that we hit our own. These are followed by limiting our opponents FTR and crashing the offensive boards (i.e., our OTR). Offensive rebounding percentage is a measure of the possible rebounds that are gathered by the offense.



OR% = OR / (OR + DRopp)


 
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Steve19;787462; said:
Effective field goal percentage is like regular field goal percentage except that it gives 50% more credit for made three-pointers.


eFG% = (.5*3FGM + FGM) / FGA
Click to expand...

Steve, if you get 50% more credite for a 3-pointer, shouldn't the formula be:

eFG% = (1.5*3FGM + FGM) / FGA (1.5, not .5)
 
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MililaniBuckeye;787475; said:
Steve, if you get 50% more credite for a 3-pointer, shouldn't the formula be:

eFG% = (1.5*3FGM + FGM) / FGA (1.5, not .5)
Click to expand...

Only if FGM only represents two-pointers made. Otherwise, the 3FGM are counted twice.
 
Upvote 0
Steve19 said:
I see two minor keys to the game, that is keys beyond JO4H's central goal of more points.

Tennessee lost 7 of the 13 games in which their Pomeroy effective field goal (eFG) percentage was below 50%. Their game against the Buckeyes was one of their seven lowest eFG games, at 44.7%. Effective field goal percentage is like regular field goal percentage except that it gives 50% more credit for made three-pointers.


eFG% = (.5*3FGM + FGM) / FGA


Lofton and JaJuan Smith are the two players who are most effective shooters. They put up more than 50% of the threes that Tennessee takes and hit more than a third of them.


Making sure that they don't get easy looks from the perimeter will be key, and no defensive lapses in that endeavor, will be key. Chism and the other Smith also have hit about 30% of their threes, so perimeter play will be essential.

That said, on the year, we have shot threes as good or better than UT. We also have improved our free throw rate, which captures a team's ability to score from the line.


FTRateoff = FTM / FGAFTRatedef = FTA / FGA


In losses to North Carolina and Florida, our FTR was below .20. It has only been below .30 twice since mid-February (the last two Wisconsin games).

What determines if we win?

Tennessee likes a fast-paced game and rank in the top 20 when pace of game is measured. Our rank is in the 230's adn all three of our losses came in our seven fastest paced games. Tennessee has lost fast and slow paced games and no pattern emerges.

So, we must slow this game down and work at our own pace, not allowing their full court press to rattle us and change our tempo.


Correlations
to OE to DE
Pace: -0.12 -0.08

eFG%: +0.71* -0.06
OR%: +0.45* -0.15
TO%: -0.24 -0.14
FTR: +0.12 +0.13

Opp eFG%: +0.18 +0.82*
Opp OR%: -0.02 +0.21
Opp TO%: +0.16 -0.37
Opp FTR: -0.15 +0.48*

Bold values are significant with a 95% confidence
Bold* values are significant with a 99% confidence


Limiting our opponents eFG is the most important determinant, closely followed by making sure that we hit our own. These are followed by limiting our opponents FTR and crashing the offensive boards (i.e., our OTR). Offensive rebounding percentage is a measure of the possible rebounds that are gathered by the offense.



OR% = OR / (OR + DRopp)
Click to expand...
you sound like this guy i know. he bets a lot of money every week. everything is off some formula that he derived or stole from someone. granted he doesnt work and drives a lexus so....
 
Upvote 0
Has XRayRandy stole your login info? WOW

Steve19;787462; said:
I see two minor keys to the game, that is keys beyond JO4H's central goal of more points.

Tennessee lost 7 of the 13 games in which their Pomeroy effective field goal (eFG) percentage was below 50%. Their game against the Buckeyes was one of their seven lowest eFG games, at 44.7%. Effective field goal percentage is like regular field goal percentage except that it gives 50% more credit for made three-pointers.


eFG% = (.5*3FGM + FGM) / FGA


Lofton and JaJuan Smith are the two players who are most effective shooters. They put up more than 50% of the threes that Tennessee takes and hit more than a third of them.


Making sure that they don't get easy looks from the perimeter will be key, and no defensive lapses in that endeavor, will be key. Chism and the other Smith also have hit about 30% of their threes, so perimeter play will be essential.

That said, on the year, we have shot threes as good or better than UT. We also have improved our free throw rate, which captures a team's ability to score from the line.


FTRateoff = FTM / FGAFTRatedef = FTA / FGA


In losses to North Carolina and Florida, our FTR was below .20. It has only been below .30 twice since mid-February (the last two Wisconsin games).

What determines if we win?

Tennessee likes a fast-paced game and rank in the top 20 when pace of game is measured. Our rank is in the 230's adn all three of our losses came in our seven fastest paced games. Tennessee has lost fast and slow paced games and no pattern emerges.

So, we must slow this game down and work at our own pace, not allowing their full court press to rattle us and change our tempo.


Correlations
to OE to DE
Pace: -0.12 -0.08

eFG%: +0.71* -0.06
OR%: +0.45* -0.15
TO%: -0.24 -0.14
FTR: +0.12 +0.13

Opp eFG%: +0.18 +0.82*
Opp OR%: -0.02 +0.21
Opp TO%: +0.16 -0.37
Opp FTR: -0.15 +0.48*

Bold values are significant with a 95% confidence
Bold* values are significant with a 99% confidence


Limiting our opponents eFG is the most important determinant, closely followed by making sure that we hit our own. These are followed by limiting our opponents FTR and crashing the offensive boards (i.e., our OTR). Offensive rebounding percentage is a measure of the possible rebounds that are gathered by the offense.



OR% = OR / (OR + DRopp)
Click to expand...
 
Upvote 0
LitlBuck;787337; said:
I don't understand why you think playing a zone defense is a bad thing. If they have two guys who are 6'9 you certainly do not want Oden going out onto the floor and trying to guard them. That would leave the lane wide open for cutters and take away any rebounding advantage that we might have. I certainly do not know as much as Matta but I think playing man-to-man against the Vols would be a big mistake unless we get behind and his court dictates it. The only way I would play man-to-man against these guys would be if I had the same lineup in the game that was in during the overtime against X and that would take away the biggest advantage we have on offense. I think having played them earlier in the season and the fact that we had a very difficult game this past Saturday will get the guys attention.
Click to expand...

The biggest weakness of a zone defense is that is allows easier 3 point shooting. Thus, with UT being one of the best 3 point shooting teams around, it could be a bad move. We shot terribly against you the first time around and you played man to man.
 
Upvote 0
Steve19;787462; said:
I see two minor keys to the game, that is keys beyond JO4H's central goal of more points.

Tennessee lost 7 of the 13 games in which their Pomeroy effective field goal (eFG) percentage was below 50%. Their game against the Buckeyes was one of their seven lowest eFG games, at 44.7%. Effective field goal percentage is like regular field goal percentage except that it gives 50% more credit for made three-pointers.


eFG% = (.5*3FGM + FGM) / FGA


Lofton and JaJuan Smith are the two players who are most effective shooters. They put up more than 50% of the threes that Tennessee takes and hit more than a third of them.


Making sure that they don't get easy looks from the perimeter will be key, and no defensive lapses in that endeavor, will be key. Chism and the other Smith also have hit about 30% of their threes, so perimeter play will be essential.

That said, on the year, we have shot threes as good or better than UT. We also have improved our free throw rate, which captures a team's ability to score from the line.


FTRateoff = FTM / FGAFTRatedef = FTA / FGA


In losses to North Carolina and Florida, our FTR was below .20. It has only been below .30 twice since mid-February (the last two Wisconsin games).

What determines if we win?

Tennessee likes a fast-paced game and rank in the top 20 when pace of game is measured. Our rank is in the 230's adn all three of our losses came in our seven fastest paced games. Tennessee has lost fast and slow paced games and no pattern emerges.

So, we must slow this game down and work at our own pace, not allowing their full court press to rattle us and change our tempo.


Correlations
to OE to DE
Pace: -0.12 -0.08

eFG%: +0.71* -0.06
OR%: +0.45* -0.15
TO%: -0.24 -0.14
FTR: +0.12 +0.13

Opp eFG%: +0.18 +0.82*
Opp OR%: -0.02 +0.21
Opp TO%: +0.16 -0.37
Opp FTR: -0.15 +0.48*

Bold values are significant with a 95% confidence
Bold* values are significant with a 99% confidence


Limiting our opponents eFG is the most important determinant, closely followed by making sure that we hit our own. These are followed by limiting our opponents FTR and crashing the offensive boards (i.e., our OTR). Offensive rebounding percentage is a measure of the possible rebounds that are gathered by the offense.



OR% = OR / (OR + DRopp)
Click to expand...

Holy crap - excellent post. I'm a huge stat geek and KenPom follower. I get a lot of crap on Vol Nation for my stat stuff, but oh well.

Pace is important, as you mentioned. 2 of tOSU's 3 losses were when the pace was over 70, while the 3rd loss was a pace of 68. Tennessee is 19-6 when the pace hits 70 or more. Tennessee is 10-4 against Pom Top 50 when the pace hits 70 or more. tOSU is 1-2 against Pom Top 50 when the pace hits 70 or more, with the lone win being against - TADA - Tennessee.

Pomeroy predicts the game will have a pace of 71 - so who knows. If tOSU comes out in the zone, I can guarantee UT will shoot quickly from behind the arc, thus, quite possibly, creating an even higher pace.

And of course, your Buckeyes haven't lost a game when the pace was 67 or lower.
 
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