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Ohio State 85, Tennessee 84 (final)

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VolinArizona;787528; said:
Holy crap - excellent post. I'm a huge stat geek and KenPom follower. I get a lot of crap on Vol Nation for my stat stuff, but oh well.

Pace is important, as you mentioned. 2 of tOSU's 3 losses were when the pace was over 70, while the 3rd loss was a pace of 68. Tennessee is 19-6 when the pace hits 70 or more. Tennessee is 10-4 against Pom Top 50 when the pace hits 70 or more. tOSU is 1-2 against Pom Top 50 when the pace hits 70 or more, with the lone win being against - TADA - Tennessee.

Pomeroy predicts the game will have a pace of 71 - so who knows. If tOSU comes out in the zone, I can guarantee UT will shoot quickly from behind the arc, thus, quite possibly, creating an even higher pace.

And of course, your Buckeyes haven't lost a game when the pace was 67 or lower.
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VolinArizona;787529; said:
Of course there are different variables, but in the broad sense of the zone, THAT IS the biggest weakness. Better teams than the 2007 Buckeyes have lost like this.
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what does pace refer to? poessions?

id say rebounding is the biggest weakness of a zone. imo.
 
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Bucky Katt;787480; said:
Only if FGM only represents two-pointers made. Otherwise, the 3FGM are counted twice.
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FGM does indeed represent two-pointers made (hence the abbreviation for Field Goals Made). If 3FGM (3-point FGs made) are counted twice, then they're not worth 50% more as Steve19 says, but rather 100% more.
 
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buckeyeinfla;786949; said:
i certainly feel lewis and butler will get more than 7 total points in this game...conley is the key for osu..and childress and chism for UT..if those 2 guys can pull oden out and hit the 3...tough for osu....the bucks must play
all out perimeter defense in this game...

also like the sporting news said..i would love to see conley, butler, lewis, cook and lighty/hunter out there to change the pace up..we are too slow and plodding sometimes on offense...
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Thats what Tennessee wants. They would love to speed up the pace, as shown before they can run up and down the floor with anybody. UT has alot of depth. The great thing for us this year though is, 4 freshman have been getting major playing time just about every game if not 3 every game.

I think if Ohio State & Tennessee speeds things up, UT wins. If Ohio State & Tennessee play Big 10 Basketball and keeps it slow, tOSU will win.

The only thing I'm worried about is, they are playing in a dome. A dome is the worst place for shooters. Not good for Tennessee.
 
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jimotis4heisman;787538; said:
what if its a correction for degree of difficulty or something?
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I think that's why 3-pointers get 50% more value, because of their difficulty. Maybe this might be a good example:

Taking 100 shots, 70 from 2-pt and 30 from 3-pt. If the 2-pointers are shot at 50% (35/70) and the 3-pointers at 40% (12/30), that would be:

Treating the 2- and 3-pointers equally, you have 35+12 = 47 shots made out of 100, or 47%.

But using the formula eFG% = (1.5*3FGM + FGM) / FGA, you get:

(1.5x12=18) + 35 = 53 shots made out of 100, or 53% effective shooting.

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Now, if that same team stepped back behind the arch on 10 of their 2-pointers to make them 3-pointers, and keeping the same percentages (50% for 2-ptrs and 40% for 3-ptrs) they are now shooting 30/60 for 2-ptrs and 16/40 for 3-ptrs, which works out to:

30 + 16 = 46 out of 100, for 46%.

(1.5x16=24) + 30 = 54 out of 100, for 54% effective shooting.

So, you can see that while their "real" percentage declined when they took more shots from behind the arch while maintaining the same accuracy, their effective shooting percentage increased.

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In terms of points, the first set goes:

35 * 2 points = 70 points, and 12 * 3 points for 36 points, for a total of 106 points.

The second set goes:

30 * 2 points = 60 points, and 16 * 3 points for 48 points, for a total of 108 points.
 
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Best Buckeye;787540; said:
Woody and skip are identical twins :biggrin:
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Skip sucks because he is a Vandy Grad who hates Tennessee. Everything Tennessee does he complains about it, for example. The Bruce Pearl Paint Job & the Pat Summitt Cheerleader.

He said it was a bad thing for College Athletics.

As said before, Skip is a jealous little Vandy grad. :biggrin:
 
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Steve19;787462; said:
Correlations
to OE to DE
Pace: -0.12 -0.08

eFG%: +0.71* -0.06
OR%: +0.45* -0.15
TO%: -0.24 -0.14
FTR: +0.12 +0.13

Opp eFG%: +0.18 +0.82*
Opp OR%: -0.02 +0.21
Opp TO%: +0.16 -0.37
Opp FTR: -0.15 +0.48*

Bold values are significant with a 95% confidence
Bold* values are significant with a 99% confidence
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While I think your analysis makes for interesting discussion of basketball, I don't think you can include the results of a significance test or a confidence interval.

A confidence interval is calculated assuming a large enough population and a simple random sample. Your post doesn't tell me what the population is, nor what the sample size is or even what you're sampling. Confidence intervals are useless if you don't have a random sample or the population isn't big enough.

Second, I don't think you can run a significance test on your data. What are your null and alternative hypotheses, and did you test your conclusions against the null computing a P-Value of less than 5%?

I think your statistics are an interesting take on the game and your conclusions have merit, I just don't think you can say that you've proven anything with a significance test or a 95% or 99% confidence interval.
 
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