Game Thread Miami (FL) at tOSU, Sat Sep 11, 3:40 ET, ESPN

[bukIpower]

From reading about the Canes and this thread I gather their oline is young. Well we have one of the top 5 DL's in the NATION and that's where games are won. Who can control the line of scrimmage.

You can talk about Jacory being a better QB next year or how you think we'll turn the ball over but what about in the trenches. It's clear that our DL vs Miami's OL is a total mismatch. Well we have 4 of 5 returning starters on the OL (Could be 5 since both our tackles started at one point last year) vs a Good Miami front but not great. Most likely Miami will hold it's own against our OL but we'll win our own battles as well. At best Miami can match our OL output consider it a wash at best for Miami. Both Jacory and Pryor won't be throwing INT's if they have time lets be real (unless they self destruct) so it's going to come down to who can get to the QB and who can be disruptive and my money is on the good guys.

Anyway you cut it we have the edge in the trenches. We got a mobile QB as well, we have the stable of backs, we have a Playmaker at WR, We have some of the best LB's in the nation, and our back end is solid on defense as well. OSU has the edge in talent, maturity, experience,composure and of course venue.
Better get us in the kicking game and turnovers because the odds don't look promising IMO.

 

[DaddyBigBucks]

Heather Dinich, the annoying ACC blogger at ESPN, sees this game as the #1 opportunity for the ACC to gain national respect in 2010.

5 Games, 5 Opportunities

...
Here are the top five games -- not necessarily the best games -- but the five games that could change public perception of where the ACC stands in the college football hierarchy:

1. Miami at Ohio State, Sept. 11: If the Canes knock off a national title contender on the road in the second week, this team is for real.
...

Adam Rittenberg, Heather's more talented colleague, sees it a little differently:

5 Games, 5 Opportunities for Big Ten

...
2. Miami at Ohio State, Sept. 11: Sorry, Dinich, but I look at this as a hold-serve matchup for Ohio State (think Isner-Mahut at Wimbledon). Miami should be very good, but the Buckeyes will be expected to defend their home turf against Jacory Harris & Co. A loss by the Big Ten favorites could really hurt the league's national reputation.
...

 

[BuckeyeNation27]

If the Canes knock off a national title contender on the road in the second week, this team is for real.

I hate the way sports journalism has gone. If Miami beats Ohio State they are automatically a legit threat in CFB? Just one win and there they are? I mean.....that's flattering for Ohio State and all, but it's still lazy as hell.

Remember when ND beat Michigan and all of a sudden Charlie Weis is the greatest coach ever?
Remember when they also beat Tennessee and were proclaimed as "back"?
Hell...remember when last year's Miami team beat Oklahoma? OMG MIAMI IS BACK!!!!!!!!!!!! Oops....turns out Oklahoma was pretty average.

I'm so sick of single games being used to propel teams in the rankings to places they shouldn't be.

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

I hate the way sports journalism has gone. If Miami beats Ohio State they are automatically a legit threat in CFB? Just one win and there they are? I mean.....that's flattering for Ohio State and all, but it's still lazy as hell.

Dude, it's a chick...named "Heather".

 

[AKAK]

You sacked Scott Tolzien a grand total of one time in the bowl game, and now you're going to sack Pryor, who is light years more mobile, five times in our house?

Actually.... and bear with me here for a second.

It's probably because Pryor is more Mobile (and will buy more time) that they will sack him a couple times...

But... two thoughts... if they sack him 5 times will it really matter?

First, they'll have to have at least 10 legit shots at him to sack him 5 times... Safety blitz all you want.... watch them get chucked to the turf... even if you can get to him, you still have to bring him down.

Second, Problem with Pryor is that 5 sacks doesn't equal 5 - 3 and outs, as he can pick up first downs anyway. (And likely some of these sacks would be of the 1 or 2 yard just behind the line of scrimmage variety anyway.)

So, sure... 5 sacks? Maybe so. So what?

 

[jwinslow]

It's nice to have a visiting fan to get some discussion going (finally). Most of the reasoning is solid, but for the one place where you freely admit that you're not using reason.

Going by what seems the most likely outcome using reason, rather than blind faith; it looks to me like the biggest difference between the two teams will be the match-up of the OSU DL vs. the Miami OL. I expect this will be the 'Canes undoing.

Agreed, I appreciate the discussion. There's nothing wrong with having opinions that we feel are unreasonable, as long as they are being communicated in a reasonable manner and with rationale. We are all homers to some degree.

It is especially welcome since we've spent most of 2008, 09 & 10 trying to fill these otherwise silent threads. We haven't even had trolls stop by from USC or Da U, so this is a nice change.

Dude, it's a chick...named "Heather".

Dude, the majority of the press does the same thing. It wasn't a chick's dangerous misapplication of estrogen fueling those other examples either, which are just a small sampling of the problem 27 was getting at.

 

[jwinslow]

Thanks for the answers, here are mine:

1. 1 fum, 1 int Pryor

2. 1 fum, 2 int Harris

3. 3.9 for about 65-75 yds. Two negative plays - sack, fumble drop the average from 4-5 ypc.

4. 4.2 ypc for OSU RBs, 3.2-3.5 for Boom, 4-4.5 for Saine or Hall, higher for Berry. How they split the touches is unknown.

5. 3.9 ypc for Miami. Miami is a very good rushing team but will be up against a strong rush defense with better athletes in the trenches.

 

[jwinslow]

Now my rebuttal to your opinions:

1. A 2 INT outing is very rare for Pryor.

08 - 0 INT 7x - 1 INT 4x - 2 INT 0x
09 - 0 INT 4x - 1 INT 7x - 2 INT 2x

2. Harris is a very safe bet for at least 2 turnovers and could produce more. Turnovers by game:

4 Clemson, North Carolina
3 Oklahoma
2 Virginia Tech, Florida St, Florida A&M, Duke, ______*
1 Wake Forest, Virginia, South Florida, _______*
0 Georgia Tech, UCF

* - Wisconsin had 1-2 fumbles, depending on who fumbled on 3rd & 18 in first half. Merely listed as "team rush"

3. Pryor's lowest YPC totals in 09 were 3.5-3.9 ypc in six contests, including USC (actually USC & Oregon were quite similar statistically). 2.5 is not a very logical prediction.

4. _______________ TBD, I need to take care of some things, I'll edit this later.

5. Solid prediction

Miami YPC - Miami had solid success on the ground. I underlined the opponents that are the closest to OSU's defense.

3.2 VT - 29 att 093 yds
3.5 FS - 19 att 067 yds
3.9 CF - 32 att 196 yds
3.9 DU - 39 att 151 yds
4.3 WF -14 att 060 yds
4.5 WI - 13 att 059 yds - 1.8 ypc on 11 carries, 16 & 23 on the other two.
4.9 NC - 21 att 104 yds
5.6 GT - 32 att 178 yds
6.0 SF - 39 att 234 yds
6.3 FA - 34 att 214 yds
6.7 CL - 31 att 210 yds
7.2 OU - 24 att 174 yds
8.6 VA - 34 att 290 yds

1. one fumble, two int.
2. two int.
3. 2.5; more importantly Pryor will be sacked 5 times
4. 3.9
5. 4.3

I chose to pass on the rest of the analysis due to time and that others have already responded to it.

 

[Gatorubet]

I'm sorry, but I see anything less than a curb stomping as a disappointment.

You should beat those guys. Beat them in time of possession, yards, points, and just generally beat their asses black and blue..

 

[jwinslow]

Oh how I hope Miami finds their way to the SEC! SEC! SEC! someday. It will be wonderful to have you see the light

 

[87cane]

Gator you pointed out one of The U's more embarrassing moments. Well I thought everyone might enjoy one of the Gator's more embarrassing moments. Enjoy!!!!!:)

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5LNIWaYNJZI&feature=related]YouTube - TOMMIE FRAZIER THE RUN AGAINST FLORIDA FIESTA BOWL[/ame]

 

[Wingate1217]

Gator you pointed out one of The U's more embarrassing moments. Well I thought everyone might enjoy one of the Gator's more embarrassing moments. Enjoy!!!!!:)

YouTube - TOMMIE FRAZIER THE RUN AGAINST FLORIDA FIESTA BOWL

To be fair that Nebbie team embarrassed a lot of teams that year.....

 

[87cane]

Very true. Arguments have been made that the '95 Nebraska team is the best of all time.

 

[FrancisSoyer]

Very true. Arguments have been made that the '95 Nebraska team is the best of all time.

Not if you ask most Miami fans. Or Florida fans.

 

[Buckeneye]

SI.com - News and Scores from Sports Illustrated

I do hope Tressel and the staff took well note of this game and the Champs Bowl - Miami's defense suffered greatly at the hands of opposing TE's.

That said. John Clay had a superior Wisky Oline (in comparison to The 'U') and averaged 3ypc with a long of 8 yards. That's not even a god-damn
1st down starting from 1st and 10 - Clay being a dozer of a man with decent agility and 1500 yards rushing in a season.

I personally don't believe any Miami RB will avg over 3ypc myself.


Pryor will most likely have 1 INT. I highly doubt any fumbles.

Harris will have 2 INT's. One will be forced into coverage the other will be tipped at the line or something 'round pressure right up the middle in his face.


The 'Shoe will be rocking and if you think 105k screaming on hand wont make life hard on the lines and Harris you're freakin high. Matt Barkley said the same thing, along with the rest of the USC squad.

I'm with Gator on the ass-beating. I don't expect Miami to roll over or to not show some fight. But winning by less than 10 might shock me. I personally say 28-13 tOSU.