Losing Early, Now What Needs to Happen - 2010 Chaos Theory

[scarletmike]

If MSU loses once, OSU goes to the rose bowl.
If MSU loses twice, OSU is #2 and gets an at-large bid like most years.
If MSU never loses, the bowls get to choose whether they want OSU or UW ratings.

Okay, that's twice now I've seen someone say that MSU loses twice, we're #2 in the B10...which doesn't work out for me in my mind if MSU losing just once puts us in the Rose. We're tied for #1 at that point, correct, with MSU at #2 (yes, I know, tied for first, we're second technically, but why the hell would we be #2 instead of #1?)? I think if we split with Wiscy, we definitely get the nod for anything over them. Why would MSU losing twice give us an at-large instead of an automatic with MSU only losing once?

 

[SloopyHangOn]

Okay, that's twice now I've seen someone say that MSU loses twice, we're #2 in the B10...which doesn't work out for me in my mind if MSU losing just once puts us in the Rose. We're tied for #1 at that point, correct, with MSU at #2 (yes, I know, tied for first, we're second technically, but why the hell would we be #2 instead of #1?)? I think if we split with Wiscy, we definitely get the nod for anything over them. Why would MSU losing twice give us an at-large instead of an automatic with MSU only losing once?

The only way we can win the BigTen (and get the auto-bid to the Rose) is for Wisky to lose twice and Sparty to lose once (to anyone).

Even if we win out (which means beating Iowa), a 3-way tie goes to Sparty (Sparty over Wisky over us) or if we tie with Sparty we win the head-to-head if Sparty's 1 loss is to Iowa or we have a higher BCS ranking than 1 loss Sparty.

EDIT: Another strange scenario would be if Iowa beats Sparty and we beat Iowa then Sparty and Wisconsin both lose again, and by some freak of nature we lose to Minnesota, State Penn or tSUN there would be a 4 way tie for first place where the highest BCS ranking would go to the Rose Bowl.

 

[jwinslow]

The only way we can win the BigTen (and get the auto-bid to the Rose) is for both Wisky and Sparty to lose twice.

False.

In the event that there is a 3 way tie at the top it will be up to the BCS committee to choose either Wisky or us as an at-large.

MSU only has to lose once for this to happen.

 

[SloopyHangOn]

False.

MSU only has to lose once for this to happen.

I might have the rules incorrect, but if Sparty, Wisky and ourselves each end the season with 1 loss why wouldn't the head-to-head go to Sparty?

They beat Wisky who beat us.

EDIT: Nevermind, I get it. We can win the BigTen by Wisky losing twice and Sparty losing once.

 

[SloopyHangOn]

Either way, the only way we win the BigTen is if Wisky loses twice and that seems very unlikely.

 

[scarletmike]

Ok, so everything you two are saying about MSU losing is contingent upon Wiscy losing two...

It would have made things a lot easier if you had, you know, SAID there was a contingency for the MSU loss scenarios.
Some of us don't have the rule books memorized, we just watch the games.

 

[Steve19]

How...did we go from 10 to 11?

tOSU is the only school who can go down in the bcs by winning 49-0.

It's our SOS, which improves from this game onwards but not remarkably.

I think Wisconsin wins out. Purdue and TSUN away, Indiana and Northwestern at home. The away games offer the greatest potential for an upset, but either team would have to have the game of their lives.

Michigan State looks even better. Minnesota and Purdue at home and Penn State away. Maybe the final game could be a tester as a possible last home game for Paterno, but hard to see them losing. Everyone is counting on Sparty to be Sparty. Personally, I'd love to be surprised but I don't think so.

On the other hand, Ohio State at Iowa looks like a much greater challenge than Wisconsin or MSU face. Time will tell, but win out and hope that others don't is all the Buckeyes can do.

 

[NateG]

Unfortunately, we need to root for 3 teams that we traditionally hate to win most to al of their remaining games. scUM, ND, and Cryami. scUM to get the wow factor of beating the crap out of a 8 -9 win team at the end of the year(doubtful they get there I know) ND to take out Utah, and Cryami to win the ACC(would put them in the top 10 of BCS(currently 22). SOS boost and voter appeal. Add that to a good larger than 1 point win... try 15-20(hope) at Iowa and blowing out Minn and State Penn. Gotta get some voter love cause the comps will come around if the first part happens.

Texas continuing to lose would help and then we need the rest of the B12 to keep eating themselves up(Maximum value=Neb over Mizz-then lose in B12 title, Ok St losing to others besides Texas-KST,Baylor,Kansas-then beating Okla). One sparty loss and we jump them in the BCS. A good win at Iowa jumps us back over Whisky. Not nervous of either of them(MSU/Whisky) to be honest. If Oregon loses to unranked USC this week they drop way down due to lack of SOS in the comps(big win=Stanford, who will lose again).

For as bad as dropping is, we can gain it back fast. BCS game will be ours with a win out due to $. Backdoor possibilities are still there at a NCG. Three biggest hurdles Aub/ALA(almost have to lose the SECCG), Boise/TCU/UTAH- could need 2 losses from the 3, and a Oregon & MSU loss - both very possible still.

 

[UpNorthBuckeye]

another wrinkle

If Terrelle throws for 250 and runs for 100 the next three weeks he would be back near the top of the Heisman candidates. If LaJames and the Auburn guy fart a couple of games away then TP could be the leader. Don't you think that would add to the interest in OSU over Wisky?

Personally, I think this whole discussion proves the coaching maxim of just take care of business and win your games and let the chips fall where they may.

If we end the year 12 and 1, with our only loss being a road loss to Wisky, I think that is an improvement over last year. And last year was pretty damned good.

 

[Tlangs]

Interesting thing about BCS rankings. Missouri is currently #2 and Oklahoma is #5 after the loss in the 'puters.

Missouri has beaten Ill, Miami oh, san deigo state, mcnese state, colorado, aTm, and OU...

This is the #2 team in the country??

Any ideas as to why the 'puters love the big 12? Oklahoma is behind us in the two human polls but ther #5 ranking jumps them over us overall. I'm not saying this is wrong or right...just curious as to why the 'puter love for Oklahoma.

 

[Tlangs]

If Terrelle throws for 250 and runs for 100 the next three weeks he would be back near the top of the Heisman candidates. If LaJames and the Auburn guy fart a couple of games away then TP could be the leader. Don't you think that would add to the interest in OSU over Wisky?

Personally, I think this whole discussion proves the coaching maxim of just take care of business and win your games and let the chips fall where they may.

If we end the year 12 and 1, with our only loss being a road loss to Wisky, I think that is an improvement over last year. And last year was pretty damned good.

If we want a BCS bid over Wisky, we need to go into Kinnick stadium and absolutely dismantle them to show that OSU is a much improved team over the one that lost to Wisky.

 

[NateG]

Interesting thing about BCS rankings. Missouri is currently #2 and Oklahoma is #5 after the loss in the 'puters.

Missouri has beaten Ill, Miami oh, san deigo state, mcnese state, colorado, aTm, and OU...

This is the #2 team in the country??

Any ideas as to why the 'puters love the big 12? Oklahoma is behind us in the two human polls but ther #5 ranking jumps them over us overall. I'm not saying this is wrong or right...just curious as to why the 'puter love for Oklahoma.

Oklahoma has a nice win over FSU that pushed them up early. Then when Mizz won Okla didn't drop out of the top 10 they got the benefit. They will eat themselves up.

 

[BlufftonBuckeye]

Also, don't think that an impressive win against Iowa will allow us to jump Wisky, we almost certainly need a loss to get past them. There is almost no way the humans would bump tOSU past Wisky without something major happening due to the H2H loss. Maybe if the computers all of the sudden switched in our favor, but like the previous poster said, thats contingent on teams like Miami, Illinois and/or Iowa to be ranked at the end of the season. If we decimate Iowa and they drop from the rankings, ala' Miami earlier this season, the computers will be hating again.

Basically, if Wisky/tOSU both finish with a single loss, Wisky will be getting the love because of that primetime win. Ugh.

Anyone else feel like, outside of winning out, Miami could hold the key? If they win out and are in the top 10, thats going to end up looking like a great win.

 

[Tlangs]

I still think Sparty will lose to Iowa then win out creating the 3 way tie with Wisky. Pretty much a coin flip between wisky and OSU in the BCS poll to determine the Rose bowl bid with the loser of that coin flip going to a different BCS game. A 1 loss Sparty will not go to a BCS game ahead of OSU.


This is the most likely scenario in my opinion.

 

[JBaney45]

Either way, the only way we win the BigTen is if Wisky loses twice and that seems very unlikely.

We really need a sticky on this issue.

If it ends in a 3 way tie, all 3 teams are Big Ten champions, the Rose Bowl berth in this case is determined by BCS rankings, this is because there would be no difference in overall records with all the teams going undefeated OOC. The Big Ten doesn't apply transitive tie breakers, so while MSU beat Wiscy and Wiscy beat Ohio State..there isn't a game linking Ohio State and Michigan State so it remains tied. This is actually more fair then you might initially think if you really put some thought into it. (Yeah MSU>Wiscy>tOSU but what about tOSU>Iowa or whoever would beat MSU>MSU)

tOSU is close enough to have a shot at jumping Wiscy without them losing, and a Sparty loss would basically guarantee them being placed behind us. Even if we didn't go to the Rose Bowl though, we would have a very good chance at getting the at large berth imo. We have to focus on US winning out.

My call though, Iowa comes through against Sparty and in the shocker of the season...the Wolverines triumph in Ann Arbor over the Badgers. Michigan's ecstasy over the win ends the following week when they take another big loss at tOSU and then look upon the Big Ten standings to see tOSU and MSU tied for the Big Ten championship, a Michigan fan's worst nightmare.