Now for some "Sequential Chaos". Basically, nothing we wanted to happen this past week did, though we were seconds away from an Iowa-Northwestern double gift. If only Kirk Ferentz could manage a damned game clock.
Anyway, as we saw from Chokelahoma's freefall that didn't quite fall far enough, we need teams to lose in a particular sequence. LSU barely dropped past us from sixth, so I am going to use that as a starting point. I'm assuming that a loss this week by a top 5 team doesn't do a thing to help our shot at making the title game, and that we need multiple losses by teams within the 6-10 range to start moving us up and not down.
#10: Wisky, BYE. Hoping to leapfrog them by hammering the hapless Gophers is too much. Figure that they ride up ahead of us until the computers like us better, since we're virtually tied in terms of Harris and Coaches' votes. I'm not worried about eventually passing them, because I think it happens if both teams win out.
#9: Chokelahoma, Colorado: See "Purdue @ Ohio State" for reference. Expect Oklahoma to get lots of love for how they "bounced back". The Sooners are looking at the Bedlam game and the B12 CCG as their toughest games, and play at AtM. Odds are that we'll get some help here, but it will come very late in the season. Ideally, they'll drop the AtM game, which is much more useful.
#8: Utah, Air Force: The Falcons were no help last week against TCU, and won't be much help this week, either. Status quo. Play TCU the following week, which is their most likely loss.
#7: Alabama, BYE: After the bye, they go to Death Valley at 8pm. Painful as it is, we're all about "Geaux Tigers", because we need Puntbamapunt to lose again as quickly as possible. If things break correctly that weekend, we'll move up despite having a bye.
#6 Missouri, Nebraska: We need bad things to happen to Mizzou NOW. They finish off with a murderer's row of Kansas State, Iowa State and Kansas. Also, we don't want a B12 CCG matchup of two teams ahead of us, due to lack of chaos factor. NU is who we want in the game to take out Chokelahoma. Pelini needs to help his alma mater this week.
#5 MSU, Iowa: Obviously huge. A two score loss would be ideal, as it would almost guarantee that MSU would drop below us in the human polls. If MSU wins, they'll win out, as they have Minnesota, Purdue and Penn State remaining.
If things break our way the next two weeks, we're looking at OSU with a big margin win over Minnesota, then kicking back during the bye week to watch Sequential Chaos ensue. We'd ideally see something like this:
#5 Chokelahoma
#6 Wisky
#7 OSU
At that point, we're waiting for a second Sooner loss, for the computers to push us past the Badgers (after the Iowa game), and then something to happen with #1 and #2 --
An Alabama loss to LSU is important, because we'll be rooting for them against Auburn at the end of the year. Between now and then, War Eagle plays Mississippi, UT Chattanooga and Georgia. Mark them down as three wins.
Oregon finishes out their next six games with five of the six teams directly below them in the Pac-10 standings, or essentially the top half of the conference, save Stanford. None of them look like certain upsets, but all have a puncher's chance, and the Civil War game is in Corvallis. A loss to USC this week doesn't help us much, unless Oregon gets absolutely pasted.
All of that gets us to #3, sitting behind an unbeaten Boise and TCU, at which point we're hoping that if lighting hasn't struck either of them, that the voters and computers revolt, pushing possibly #3 ranked OSU ahead of whichever non-BCS school limped in at #2.
Obviously, lots of bad stuff could still happen. A one loss Oregon or Auburn might not drop far enough; the BCS could just go ahead and have a joke of an MNC game with TCU and Boise; Wisconsin could stay ahead of us; Missouri or MSU could win out; Oklahoma could finish strong and get revenge against the Tigers in a B12 CCG; Bama could run the table and climb back in. This just lays out a map of what we'd need to happen to get within striking distance of the MNC game. I think if we get there, we win -- most likely against a non-BCS school.
