Losing Early, Now What Needs to Happen - 2010 Chaos Theory

[SloopyHangOn]

Bingo, Nate! I've watched a lot of football and have learned that the only certainty is that no scenario is impossible. I never lose hope....and neither should you.

Well, I'm pretty certain Notre Dame isn't playing for a championship of any sort in the foreseeable future. So, there's that.

But yea, I'm totally with ya.

 

[BrutusBuckeyeAZ]

I'm currently in graduate school at CSU. We don't really have a chance. Been a disappointing year and we were expecting a lot more.

My wife is attending CSU as a Vet Student and you are correct! The home coming game was CSU's "BIG" win this year! Unfortunately CSU will not be able to stop TCU unless their bus wont start and they dont make it to the game!
Hope to see you at Mulligans on Saturday!:osu:

 

[Steve19]

It's all about the Hawkeyes.

Iowa over Wisconsin
Iowa over Sparty
Ohio State over Iowa

Buckeyes go to Pasadena. Any dreams of Glendale will need a lot more help.

What he said. Ohio State take a knock immediately if Iowa win today, but get it all back if Iowa and Wisconsin win out except for the Ohio State Iowa game.

 

[cjmik_75]

Hypothetically, what if the Big Ten wins/losses end:
Sparty w/ 1 loss to Iowa
Wiscy w/ 1 loss to Sparty
Ohio State w/ 1 loss to Wiscy

?

Highest BCS rank goes to the Rose Bowl?

 

[Steve19]

Hypothetically, what if the Big Ten wins/losses end:
Sparty w/ 1 loss to Iowa
Wiscy w/ 1 loss to Sparty
Ohio State w/ 1 loss to Wiscy

?

Highest BCS rank goes to the Rose Bowl?

I think so.

 

[JBaney45]

Hypothetically, what if the Big Ten wins/losses end:
Sparty w/ 1 loss to Iowa
Wiscy w/ 1 loss to Sparty
Ohio State w/ 1 loss to Wiscy

?

Highest BCS rank goes to the Rose Bowl?

Yes

What would be our undoing if Sparty not losing at all (obviously) or Sparty losing twice and Wisconsin not losing again, in which case Wiscy would own the tiebreaker on us. We have the advantage, fair or unfair of having the best ranking in the BCS if we run the table and Sparty loses. Personally I'm just hoping for at least 1 Sparty loss and the rest of the things to play out as they would.

If we can split the Big Ten championship thats ideal

The National Championship would obviously be great, but a tough road to get there. I want the Big Ten title first and foremost but as far as having the tiebreaker to go to the Rose Bowl...it depends on our opponent. Playing Boise would be fun, but if Oregon ends up there I'd rather play a different team as long as it's in a BCS bowl to be completely honest. The idea of a rematch is unappealing. I'm not saying we wouldn't beat Oregon again, but it just seems they'd have more to gain from a revenge standpoint and all that jazz. If they beat us it would feel like taking a step backwards, whereas if we beat them it would just be a repeat of something we just did, just don't care for that scenario as much as a chance to go out there and match up with a new team.

 

[Jake]

Iowa didn't come through today but with Sparty's win over Wiscy it's more important that the Hawkeyes beat MSU next week. If they do, and we win out we'll have a very legitimate shot at a BCS game.

 

[JBaney45]

Iowa didn't come through today but with Sparty's win over Wiscy it's more important that the Hawkeyes beat MSU next week. If they do, and we win out we'll have a very legitimate shot at a BCS game.

There is almost 0 chance we don't make a BCS game if we win out imo.

Even if Boise AND TCU got in, and the SEC got 2 teams in, there would still be room for us even with another Big Ten team in the RB. The Big 12 could get maybe get a 2nd team in over us if Oklahoma flopped in the Big 12 title game after being undefeated previously, but I think our odds are pretty good that that doesn't happen and even with that it would be very unlikely that both TCU and Boise would be selected if we were available to take instead

 

[ORD_Buckeye]

If Oregon gets past USC, then I think they're in against a 1-loss SEC champ. That leaves the Big Ten champ vs. Boise in the Rose Bowl. Whoever it is had better not lose. That would be an epic p.r. fail for the Big Ten.

 

[Jake]

There is almost 0 chance we don't make a BCS game if we win out imo.

If Sparty AND Wiscy both win out we'll finish third in the Big Ten and there's almost 0 chance we make a BCS bowl imo. We still need some help to make a BCS game.

 

[JBaney45]

If Sparty AND Wiscy both win out we'll finish third in the Big Ten and there's almost 0 chance we make a BCS bowl imo. We still need some help to make a BCS game.

We would TECHNICALLY finished tied for 2nd, a BCS bowl would have to weigh their options and whether tOSU is a more attractive team then Wiscy. The fact that Wiscy beat tOSU wouldn't necessarily make up the bowl committees minds, fair or not. In 08 we saw Texas get taken as an at large over Texas Tech, despite Tech winning head to head and having the same record. In 2006 Arkansas won the SEC west, beating LSU head to head in the final week of the regular season, lost to Florida in the SEC championship game, and proceeded to have LSU get chosen over them for the Sugar Bowl when both teams had the same # of wins.

Obviously I'm rooting for the help because we want a split of the Big Ten, but hope isn't lost for the BCS without it.

 

[osucollegebuck]

Sparty is running into an absolute buzz saw next weekend. If they win at Kinnick you'd just have to tip your hat to them.

 

[NateG]

Oregon may have the toughest 5 game stretch of the whole top 10 of the BCS.

@USC at night, Wash, @Cal, Ariz, @Oreg St

I don't think they make it. Only team of worth they beat was Stan. I really think they get beat up against Usc, a team that can really run the ball and play defense. The Kiffins will have this team ready.

Could have used a LSU win in my opinion. They have alot harder go the rest of the way out but I still don't believe any team goes unbeaten in the SEC. LSU can beat Bama, which would be HUGE. Bama will likely beat Aub. Then you have the chance that a Florida or South Carolina catches lightning in a bottle and wins the SEC title game.

I think Neb wins next week. If not Ok St can beat Mizz. B12 would be out.

MSU will find a way to lose. I'm not convinced Wisc wins out.

Only major problem I see for Buckeye fans is the whole Boise,TCU/Utah, issue. If Bama doesn't lose again then the voters pick between Boise/TCU/Utah to play them. If Bama does lose again and it isn't to Auburn to be unbeaten, then OSU winning out has the chance to be the team picked. Voters will not allow a Boise vs TCU/Utah game. They pick the game they want. They picked Florida over a repeat of scUM. They put LSU in. They decided the B12 mess a couple of years back. If another team had gone unbeaten, they would have picked last year. Its all about money and OSU brings it in. And unfortunately/fortunately people love to watch OSU blow it on the big stage.... I don't think we will.... but they love it. Never have given voters a chance to pick us for a title game since 07 vs LSU. If we are there we can easily be picked. I don't believe the "they well never vote us in". Why not? It is a win-win. Lots of money and a chance to give the people the result they would love.

Big games for OSU next week...
Very possible
Neb over Mizz
Iowa over MSU
USC over Oregon
Wash over Stan

Less possible
Ole miss over Aub
Air force over Utah
UNLV over TCU
La Tech over Boise

 

[Steve19]

As I said during the game, I believe that our entire season hung on the outcome at Wisconsin. Things can still put Ohio State in a BCS bowl, but I will be very surprised if things work out that way.

One reason why is that our SOS is so incredibly bad. Eastern Michigan and Marshall just keep losing. If I count right, opponents so far are 29-27 after yesterday. So, we get no SOS help.

Michigan State should lose at Iowa but I think it is not as clear as the computers and pundits say. Geez, they needed overtime to beat Notre Dame and the score against Wisconsin flatters them by hiding how close the game really was. Still, Sparty seems to believe that they are a team of destiny ("we cameback late yesterday and against Wisconsin, who beat Ohio State", "our coach nearly died of a heart attack", "we're bullet-proof"). They have the feel of the 2002 Buckeyes, should lose a game but don't. There's power in that.

If Sparty don't lose next week, then I will not be surprised to see Sparty playing in a BCS bowl. However, I still think that the BCS NC is most likely to be Boise State vs TCU--and I think that no one will be watching.

I know OSU can still play in a BCS bowl, but I'd rather be pleasantly surprised.

 

[SloopyHangOn]

It would seem likely to me that the SEC doesn't get an at-large. After watching Auburn play this year I really don't see anyone getting in their way on the way to the title game. 'Bama will certainly have a hard time beating them with their sketchy D. LSU may or may not win out but I think it's more likely that they don't. If they DO get an at-large it certainly won't be from the East. I think at this point Arkansas is out and it's gonna be up to 'Bama or LSU to win out.

With that said, if we win out I see almost NO way we don't make a BCS game, regardless of what happens with the rest of the BigTen. After what happened in the BigTen yesterday, I really think Sparty is going to take a loss at Iowa, then we control our own destiny because at that point if we beat Iowa and everyone else wins out we win the BigTen. If Sparty loses again then we finish second in the BigTen and have a higher BCS rating than Wisky. It would be hard for the committee NOT to take us as an at-large in that scenario.

So all in all, the key is still to win the rest of our games. If we do that, there are a lot of scenarios that can play out but I don't see how we wouldn't slip in as the last of the at-large.